Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have shown a weak oscillating trend since the fourth quarter, with the main contract dipping to a low of 63 cents per pound due to the U.S. government shutdown causing data absence and global trade uncertainties, as well as unfavorable changes in U.S. cotton production estimates and export conditions [1] - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a slight increase in global cotton ending stocks, with initial stocks raised by 120,000 bales, production estimates reduced by 290,000 bales, and consumption estimates lowered by 270,000 bales, resulting in a net increase of 40,000 bales in ending stocks, reflecting overall stability [2] - The U.S. cotton production estimate was raised by 150,000 bales, while consumption was reduced by 100,000 bales, leading to a 200,000 bale increase in ending stocks, totaling 4.5 million bales, with a notable increase in the beginning stocks contributing to this rise [3] Group 2 - The U.S. weekly export report shows a significant increase in weekly cotton contracts, with a total of 66,300 tons signed, marking a 258% week-over-week increase and a 28% year-over-year increase, with Vietnam and Mexico being the largest buyers [4] - Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to decrease due to falling prices and adverse weather conditions affecting planting schedules, with the Mato Grosso state predicting a production of 2.58 million tons, a decrease from previous estimates [5] - In contrast, Pakistan's spinning mills are operating at a high rate, while Indian and Vietnamese mills are experiencing a downward trend in operating rates, with Pakistan's mills performing at their highest levels in three years [6][7] Group 3 - The EU's textile and apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the U.S. increased by 10.68% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with a total import value of €436.75 billion, while U.S. textile and apparel imports showed a slight decline in August [8] - The USDA's December report forecasts China's cotton production for 2025/2026 at 7.3 million tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, while India's production is estimated at 5.22 million tons, indicating limited adjustment potential for both countries [9]

Core Insights - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised its global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 25.3996 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 25.4386 million tons [1] - The ending stock for cotton in the 2025/26 season is projected to be 16.2279 million tons, an increase from last month's estimate of 15.3787 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Summary by Category - **Production Forecast** - Global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 25.3996 million tons, a decrease from the prior estimate of 25.4386 million tons [1] - **Ending Stocks** - The projected ending stock for cotton in the 2025/26 season is 16.2279 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 15.3787 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 66.56 cents per pound, down 0.27% from the opening price of 66.74 cents per pound [1] - As of September 11, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 66.74 cents, with a closing price also at 66.74 cents, reflecting a minor increase of 0.12% [2] - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports has decreased to 290,500 tons, marking a week-on-week decline of 2.45% and reaching a two-year low [2] Group 2 - In Shandong province, the inventory of imported cotton is approximately 228,000 tons, down 2.98% week-on-week and down 41.98% year-on-year [2] - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has adjusted its forecast for cotton planting area in Brazil for 2025 to 2.131926 million hectares, an increase of 5.1% from the previous month, but a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) has revised its forecast for Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season to 4.06 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.93 million tons [2]