四季度以来，ICE棉花期货价格呈偏弱震荡走势，主力合约最低下探63美分／磅一线，原因有两方面： 一方面，美国政府"停摆"导致市场数据缺失，且全球贸易存在不确定性；另一方面，美棉产量预估变化 和出口情况对美棉价格不利。 全球棉花期末库存增加 美国产量调整空间或有限 12月USDA供需报告显示，与11月相比，美棉产量预估调增15万包，消费量预估调减10万包，最终期末 库存预估调增20万包，至450万包。与上年度相比，美棉期末库存增加50万包，主要贡献来自期初库存 的增加，期末库销比上升3.2个百分点。 根据USDA统计，截至2025年12月5日当周，美棉累计检验量为200.85万吨，占全年美棉产量预估值的 65.7%，较去年同期低11个百分点。美棉收获进入尾声，上市检验进入高峰期，上市进度同比落后幅度 收窄，质量指标继续上升。12月USDA供需报告显示，2025/2026年度美棉整体弃种率为20.75%，结合 往年美棉生长状况，弃种率并无显著矛盾。另外，美棉收获进入尾声，预计美棉产量后期调整幅度不 大。由此推测，美棉出口量的变化是影响美棉价格的关键因素之一。 美棉周度出口报告显示，截至11月6日当周，美国陆地棉周 ...

Core Insights - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised its global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 25.3996 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 25.4386 million tons [1] - The ending stock for cotton in the 2025/26 season is projected to be 16.2279 million tons, an increase from last month's estimate of 15.3787 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Summary by Category - **Production Forecast** - Global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 25.3996 million tons, a decrease from the prior estimate of 25.4386 million tons [1] - **Ending Stocks** - The projected ending stock for cotton in the 2025/26 season is 16.2279 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 15.3787 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 66.56 cents per pound, down 0.27% from the opening price of 66.74 cents per pound [1] - As of September 11, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 66.74 cents, with a closing price also at 66.74 cents, reflecting a minor increase of 0.12% [2] - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports has decreased to 290,500 tons, marking a week-on-week decline of 2.45% and reaching a two-year low [2] Group 2 - In Shandong province, the inventory of imported cotton is approximately 228,000 tons, down 2.98% week-on-week and down 41.98% year-on-year [2] - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has adjusted its forecast for cotton planting area in Brazil for 2025 to 2.131926 million hectares, an increase of 5.1% from the previous month, but a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) has revised its forecast for Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season to 4.06 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.93 million tons [2]