二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 2 日 棉花：预计震荡等待新的驱动 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 10 月 31 日当周，ICE 棉花出现久违的强劲反弹，一度触及 66 美分/磅，最终周涨幅超过 2%。 主要受国际经贸形势的乐观预期影响，一方面中美双方达成阶段性贸易协议，另一方面美国和亚洲其他各 国之间也达成了新的协议，令市场对美国棉花出口改善的预期上升，从而推动 ICE 棉花反弹。 国内棉花期货总体来说维持反弹势头，不过在涨到 13650 附近后上涨势头放缓，本周籽棉收购价格维 持稳定而且预计大部分籽棉已经被收购，所以本年度新棉的平均成本基本确认，这样短期内籽棉价格或者 说新棉成本上升对郑棉期货的带动力减弱，市场焦点将再次回归到棉花的供需情况，在新作丰产、下游需 求表现一般、棉花一口价中性的情况下，棉花期、现货价格暂时没有新的上涨驱动。短期来看，新棉大量 上市和轧花厂套保意愿较强继续限制郑棉期货的反弹动能，不过，高基差和绝对价格相对不高将对郑棉期 货构成支撑，这一情况越临近交割月可能越明显。所以，当前维持郑棉期货震荡走势的判断。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 66.56 cents per pound, down 0.27% from the opening price of 66.74 cents per pound [1] - As of September 11, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 66.74 cents, with a closing price also at 66.74 cents, reflecting a minor increase of 0.12% [2] - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports has decreased to 290,500 tons, marking a week-on-week decline of 2.45% and reaching a two-year low [2] Group 2 - In Shandong province, the inventory of imported cotton is approximately 228,000 tons, down 2.98% week-on-week and down 41.98% year-on-year [2] - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has adjusted its forecast for cotton planting area in Brazil for 2025 to 2.131926 million hectares, an increase of 5.1% from the previous month, but a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) has revised its forecast for Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season to 4.06 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.93 million tons [2]