1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.3% to 69.98 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.71% to 15,295 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 21,505 lots to 493,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The USDA planting area forecast report shows that the U.S. cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be 9.64 million acres, much higher than the previous forecast of 9.23 million acres. In the domestic market, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is likely to decline, but there are differences in the reduction range. The far - month contracts are relatively strong. Historically, when domestic and global cotton production and inventory - to - sales ratios decline year - on - year, the average annual increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices exceeds 9%, and the peak increase within the year exceeds 25%. As of now, the increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices in 2026 is lower than the historical average. In the short term, there are many market disturbances, and it is necessary to pay attention to planting intentions and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced in early April. The market may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: A consulting company predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 crushing season may decrease by 14.2%, with the total sugar exports expected to be 29 million tons, lower than 33.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to drop to 40.3 million tons, compared with 43.5 million tons in the previous season. Ethanol production is expected to increase significantly, with the total production (including corn - based fuel) expected to grow by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters. The spot price of raw sugar is suppressed by hedging orders, and the futures price returns to around 15.5 cents per pound. Domestic sugar mills are gradually ending the crushing season, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Although domestic sugar prices are strong due to macro - sentiment and high raw sugar prices, other commodities are showing signs of returning to the fundamental logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the logic switch in the future. For now, it is treated as a range - bound market, waiting for short - selling opportunities, and paying attention to the sales and production data in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 135 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,555 yuan, up 117 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,691 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan, and the national spot price is 16,850 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 33 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 42 yuan, up 13 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On March 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,420, down 15 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 489. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions on March 31 were: 16,691 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,850 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,889 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 17,036 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load on March 31 was 57.9, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 16.8, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 60.6, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 23.5, down 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On March 31, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 31 was 16,862, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton and sugar, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures resumed their upward trend after ending the adjustment, with technical buying and short - covering driving each contract to a new high for the year. The market is more concerned about the planting area intention report to be released by USDA on March 31, and the average market expectation is that the U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season will decrease slightly compared with the 25/26 season [1][6]. - The upward momentum of domestic cotton futures has slowed down. Although the rise in foreign cotton futures has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, providing positive support for domestic cotton futures, the optimistic expectation for demand in the 25/26 season has been fully traded in the short - term. The increase in cotton import quotas has also eased the concern about tight supply. In the short term, domestic cotton futures lack upward drivers, and the market focus is expected to shift to new - season planting. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [1][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - linked | 67.60 | 70.31 | 66.65 | 69.47 | 2.13 | 3.16% | 174,723 | - 78,914 | 139,012 | - 8,589 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - linked | 15,215 | 15,455 | 15,165 | 15,395 | 180 | 1.18% | 1,401,772 | - 677,304 | 531,174 | - 61,277 | | Cotton Yarn Main - linked | 21,465 | 21,710 | 21,380 | 21,435 | - 40 | - 0.19% | 57,830 | - 1,255 | 9,504 | - 5,295 | [5] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton reached a new high for the year. The U.S. cotton weekly export sales data improved slightly, but the improvement was limited. The market is more concerned about the USDA's planting area report [6]. - As of the week ending March 19, 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts were 45,900 tons, a 3% week - on - week increase and a 5% decrease compared with the four - week average. 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts were 6,100 tons. The 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly shipment was 90,800 tons, a 46% week - on - week increase and a 43% increase compared with the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.2449 million tons, accounting for 86% of the annual forecast total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.3465 million tons, accounting for 60% of the annual total signed volume [6]. - India: In January, cotton imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export of raw cotton decreased month - on - month, the export of cotton yarn increased, and the export of textiles increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [7]. - Brazil: The production forecast is stable at around 3.8 million tons. Some are worried that rainfall in April may affect production. The cotton farmer sales rate of the 2025 crop may reach 90% - 95%, and about 60% of the 2026 output is in the hands of traders [8]. - Bangladesh: As Ramadan approaches, import demand has slowed down slightly. The industry is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on business operations. Cotton imports in February decreased compared with January and were lower than the same period in 2025 [8][9]. - Pakistan: Cotton planting is progressing actively. Import demand is active, but actual transactions are limited due to rising freight costs. The export demand for yarn has slowed down, but China still has purchasing interest [10]. - Australia: The reservoir water volume is lower than the same period last year. The 2025/26 lint production is expected to be 1 million tons, a 17% decrease from the previous year [11]. - Southeast Asian textile industry: As of the week ending March 27, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69%, 72%, and 66% respectively [11]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices rose, and trading became lighter. After the rise in cotton prices, textile mills' purchasing willingness decreased. The mainstream basis of cotton spot prices remained stable, with local sales basis slightly reduced by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - As of March 27, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 12,434, and the reported warehouse receipts were 339, with a total of 12,773, equivalent to 536,466 tons [12]. - Downstream trading cooled slightly, and yarn mill profits improved. The cotton yarn market was weak, with fewer inquiries and new orders. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders. The operating rate of spinning mills remained high, and inventory was low. The cotton fabric market was weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The operating rate of weaving mills was 60.5%, and inventory was 24.5 days [13][14]. 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, weaving mill yarn inventory, spinning mill yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprise inventory, spinning mill operating rate, cotton fabric enterprise operating rate, cotton yarn profit, cotton fabric profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures continue their upward trend. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area report, and concerns about the supply of fertilizers due to the Iran situation may affect global cotton planting. The forward December contract is stronger than the near - month contract. - Domestic cotton futures' upward momentum has slowed down. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term, and the market focus will shift to new - season planting [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the domestic cotton market, the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season provides cost and supply support. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season with increased replenishment demand and high - level downstream enterprise operations offer upward impetus. However, the release of sliding - duty quotas, large import volume due to the wide price gap between domestic and international cotton, and weak downstream spinning profits may limit price increases. The overall price range is expected to be around 14,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and if the reduction in planting area exceeds expectations, prices may rise further [1][33]. - In the international market, the global supply - demand pattern is tightening. Drought in the US cotton - producing areas and the high probability of El Niño weather may lead to a decrease in cotton production. The current low price of US cotton and China's purchase demand will support international cotton prices [2][33]. - The operation suggestion is to view Zhengzhou cotton from a medium - term oscillatory perspective and mainly go long on dips [3][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated upward, rising first and then falling. The main contract price ranged from 14,500 to 15,765 yuan/ton. The reduction of inventory, increased demand, and concerns about new - season supply were the core supports, while the quota was only a short - term disturbance [5]. - **International Market**: In the first quarter, US cotton showed a strong and upward - trending oscillation. The ICE cotton futures main contract price ranged from 60 to 68.71 cents/pound. The drought in the main - producing areas and the expectation of a supply shortage were the core supports [6]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Domestic Production**: As of March 24, 2026, the inspected cotton quantity was 33,652,621 bales, with a weight of 7.6005 million tons, higher than the expected 7.4 million tons. The national cotton - planting intention area in 2026 showed a slight decline, with different situations in different regions. Xinjiang plans to reduce the planting area, and the actual reduction will affect cotton prices [8][10]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises recovered rapidly. By March 20, the operating rates reached 61.9% and 60.5% respectively, and the finished - product inventories of these enterprises decreased to 14.8 days and 24.8 days [12][15]. - **Imports**: From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year. The state issued 300,000 tons of sliding - duty quotas, which is expected to keep imports stable and regulate the import order [17][19]. - **Exports**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 17.6% year - on - year. Multiple factors contributed to this growth, but the subsequent export growth may face challenges [21]. 3.3 International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to the USDA's March report, the US cotton supply - demand situation remained stable, while the global market showed an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and a slight increase in inventory pressure [25]. - **Northern Hemisphere Planting**: In the 2026/27 season, the cotton - planting intentions in the US and India showed different trends. Weather conditions and crop price ratios are key factors affecting planting. The US may face drought and El Niño risks, while India may face pest risks [28][29]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: The reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang provides support, but factors such as quota release and import volume may limit price increases. The overall price range is around 14,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton [1][33]. - **International Market**: The global supply - demand pattern is tightening, and factors such as drought and El Niño may lead to a decrease in production. China's purchase demand will support international cotton prices [2][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Treat Zhengzhou cotton from a medium - term oscillatory perspective and mainly go long on dips [3][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures fluctuated during the Spring Festival holiday, with a bearish sentiment being mostly priced in. After breaking through 64.2 cents per pound, it rebounded due to short - covering in exports and strong weekly US cotton data [2]. - The outlook for the US cotton planting area in 2026 is still divided. The National Cotton Council (NCC) estimates a 3.2% year - on - year decrease to 9 million acres, while the US Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates 9.4 million acres [2]. - The overall basis of domestic cotton spot is stable, with different basis ranges for different regions and cotton grades [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - CF2605 closed at 14,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.34%, trading volume of 308,077 lots (down 9,834 from the previous day), and an open interest of 1,007,658 lots (down 27,068) [1]. - CY2605 closed at 20,530 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, trading volume of 0 lots (down 1,999), and an open interest of 0 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 65.22 cents per pound with a daily decline of 0.50% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data** - Zhengzhou cotton had 11,001 warehouse receipts (up 112) and 1,072 valid forecasts (down 84) [1]. - Cotton yarn had 0 warehouse receipts and 38 valid forecasts (down 24) [1]. - **Spot Price Data** - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,884 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,810 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The price in Shandong was 16,129 yuan/ton (down 50, - 0.31%), and in Hebei was 16,110 yuan/ton (down 56, - 0.35%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,088 yuan/ton (down 31, - 0.19%), and the Cotlook:A index was 74.15 cents per pound (up 0.61%) [1]. - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,520 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,058 yuan/ton (down 8, - 0.04%) [1]. - **Spread Data** - The CF3 - 5 spread was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot** - The basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is mainly in the range of CF05 + 1000 - 1100, and more quotes are above CF05 + 1100, for pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1250 - 1450, for pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton in Shandong and Henan warehouses (3130/30, micronaire value above 4, impurity within 3) is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1650 - 1800, and some are lower, for pick - up in the inland [2]. - **US Cotton** - ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose during the Spring Festival holiday. There is a divergence in the outlook for the 2026 US cotton planting area [2]. - The NCC estimates a 3.2% year - on - year decrease in the planting area to 9 million acres, while the US Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates 9.4 million acres [2]. - ICE cotton's near - month contract is affected by increasing warehouse receipts and a large number of un - priced contracts from cotton farmers. However, the bearish factors have been mostly priced in, and it rebounded from the low level [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For sugar, wait until the northern hemisphere starts to finish squeezing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, then the international sugar price may rebound. Domestically, as the supply of imported sugar gradually decreases and the sugar price falls to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased on a weekly basis, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [13]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the oil price rose significantly yesterday. The domestic inventory of the three major oils has been decreasing on a weekly basis. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to experience seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contract may fluctuate weakly, while the far - end contract may continue to correct its valuation, so maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic, so maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. The far - end production capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of high fat - to - standard price differences, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand, so pay attention to the downside support after the price follows the decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5248 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The offer price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,670 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,183 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2767 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2287 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 1.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was reported at 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was reported at 2490 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from December and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8282 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9240 yuan/ton, down 222 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9380 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026, decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December 2025 were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally fell, with some areas experiencing relatively large declines. The price in Heishan remained at 3.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui dropped 0.23 yuan to 3.84 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, the supply of small eggs was slightly tight, the inventory was not large, the downstream demand was limited, the wholesale market sales slowed down, and the purchasing intention of traders weakened. Egg prices may continue to fall this week [18]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with some areas being weak. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 12.52 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.16 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farmers slowed down, the slaughter volume decreased, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the procurement difficulty increased, and the pig price mainly rose under the situation of supply less than demand. The supply pressure in a few southern regions was relatively large, and the pig price was stable. It is expected that the pig price will be mainly strong today [21].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton maintains a structure where near - term contracts are weak and far - term contracts are strong, lacking fundamental upward drivers. The situation is similar to the same period last year [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures show a moderately strong and volatile trend, mainly influenced by the overall sentiment in the commodity market. There is a lack of new fundamental drivers, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand during the off - season. The expectation of a decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been fully priced in for the time being. It is advisable to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - year's output after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.84 | 64.40 | 62.55 | 63.11 | - 0.73 | - 1.14% | 176,844 | 74,242 | 177,986 | - 3,423 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 14,635 | 15,005 | 14,535 | 14,670 | - 25 | - 0.17% | 2,171,101 | 535,621 | 753,278 | - 50,057 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 20,515 | 21,230 | 20,385 | 20,495 | - 10 | - 0.05% | 56,765 | 3,127 | 5,889 | - 8,382 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Structure**: ICE cotton futures have been more volatile this week, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure. The 03 contract is under significant pressure, while the December contract is relatively stable [6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 46,200 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week and a 17% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 3,400 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 58,300 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week and a 61% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.7722 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 852,200 tons, accounting for 48% of the total annual signed volume [7]. - **Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In November, cotton yarn and textile exports were good. The Cotton Corporation of India has purchased 4.37 million tons of seed cotton this quarter. The company has acquired about 1.53 million tons of lint cotton. In November, raw cotton imports reached 169,600 tons, a record high in recent months. Raw cotton exports were 27,500 tons, a 13% increase from October but a 4% decrease from November 2024. Cotton yarn exports in November were 91,000 tons, slightly higher than in October and 5% higher than the same period last year. Textile exports in November reached $1.73 billion, a 12% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 26, cotton planting was 55% complete in Mato Grosso. As of January 24, the national cotton planting progress was about 61%, 14% ahead of the same period last year. Farmers' sales progress is relatively slow, and transportation costs have increased. Traders have purchased about 76% of the estimated 2025 production and locked in about 43% of the 2026 crop in advance [9][10]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand continues to improve. Although yarn prices and demand have improved, spinning mills still face operational pressure. The central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 10.5%. Weak US cotton futures have boosted import demand, but higher basis quotes from some shippers have restricted new order transactions [10]. - **Bangladesh**: There is a need to pay attention to the possibility of spinning mill shutdowns. Cotton import demand was moderate last week. Some spinning mills are cautious due to the approaching general election. Enterprises may suspend operations for about three days during the February 12 election, which may cause production disruptions and delivery delays. The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association has warned of a suspension of spinning production if the government does not cancel the duty - free bonded warehouse policy for imported yarn [11]. - **Australia**: The estimated cotton output for the new season is 4.4 million bales (about 1 million tons), an 18% decrease from the previous season. The output reduction is mainly due to a decrease in planting area and water supply shortages. The market is concerned about rainfall [12]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending January 30, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 67%, and 69% respectively, showing an upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: From January 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first rose and then fell. Spot trading was less active than last week, but some traders and textile mills still had good purchases. The sales basis of cotton spot continued to rise [13]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 30, there were 10,289 registered warehouse receipts and 1,084 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,373 receipts, equivalent to 477,666 tons [13]. - **Spinning Mill and Weaving Mill Situation**: The spot quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight increase, but the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The number of downstream factories on holiday increased, leading to a continuous contraction in new orders. Spinning mills' comprehensive startup rate continued to decline, and inventories continued to decrease. The grey - cloth market weakened, and manufacturers focused on collecting payments. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market [14][15]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill and weaving mill inventories, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18]. 3.4 Operational Suggestions Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - year's output after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [19].

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Zhengzhou cotton prices have declined under pressure. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton is 15,992 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm - price quotes have been lowered, and the basis has remained stable. The cotton yarn market has average trading volume, with few new orders. The all - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, with some pre - festival restocking in certain areas but in small quantities [7] - **Operational suggestions**: Overseas, the net long position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise, and the external market has shown signs of recovery. Domestically, the current industrial expectations have been traded, and attention should be paid to the actual decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season. The short - term upside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust, waiting for new drivers, while the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending January 6, the number of long positions in the non - commercial futures positions of CFTC US cotton was 81,409 (+247), increasing for the second consecutive week. The number of short positions was 110,329 (-1,790), changing from an increasing to a decreasing trend. The total ICE positions were 311,647 (+10,685), increasing for the sixth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 9.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [9] - As of January 11, 2026, in the 2025 cotton season, a total of 1,096 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,051,724 bales, totaling 6.7838 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 29,689,201 bales, totaling 6.7026 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area was 207,250 bales, totaling 46,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The data includes various aspects such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have shown a weak oscillating trend since the fourth quarter, with the main contract dipping to a low of 63 cents per pound due to the U.S. government shutdown causing data absence and global trade uncertainties, as well as unfavorable changes in U.S. cotton production estimates and export conditions [1] - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a slight increase in global cotton ending stocks, with initial stocks raised by 120,000 bales, production estimates reduced by 290,000 bales, and consumption estimates lowered by 270,000 bales, resulting in a net increase of 40,000 bales in ending stocks, reflecting overall stability [2] - The U.S. cotton production estimate was raised by 150,000 bales, while consumption was reduced by 100,000 bales, leading to a 200,000 bale increase in ending stocks, totaling 4.5 million bales, with a notable increase in the beginning stocks contributing to this rise [3] Group 2 - The U.S. weekly export report shows a significant increase in weekly cotton contracts, with a total of 66,300 tons signed, marking a 258% week-over-week increase and a 28% year-over-year increase, with Vietnam and Mexico being the largest buyers [4] - Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to decrease due to falling prices and adverse weather conditions affecting planting schedules, with the Mato Grosso state predicting a production of 2.58 million tons, a decrease from previous estimates [5] - In contrast, Pakistan's spinning mills are operating at a high rate, while Indian and Vietnamese mills are experiencing a downward trend in operating rates, with Pakistan's mills performing at their highest levels in three years [6][7] Group 3 - The EU's textile and apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the U.S. increased by 10.68% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with a total import value of €436.75 billion, while U.S. textile and apparel imports showed a slight decline in August [8] - The USDA's December report forecasts China's cotton production for 2025/2026 at 7.3 million tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, while India's production is estimated at 5.22 million tons, indicating limited adjustment potential for both countries [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the USDA projects the cotton planting area in the U.S. for 2025 to be 10.12 million acres, which exceeds market expectations of 9.735 million acres and is higher than the March planting intentions report of 9.867 million acres [1]