农产品早报 2026-02-02 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周五郑州白糖期货价格震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5248 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 9 元/吨，或 0.17%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5290-5370 元/吨，较上个交易日持平。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 12 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 217.1 万吨，同比增长 26.60%，糖产量为 5.6 万吨，同比减少 14.93%，甘蔗制糖比 21.24%，较去年同期减少 11.28 个百分点。据海关总署公布的 数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万 吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食糖 177 万吨，同比增加 31 万吨。12 月 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势 20260201 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 国内棉花期货维持偏强震荡的走势，主要受到整体商品市场情绪变化影响，周三受商品情绪乐观情绪 推动再次上冲至 15000 元/吨附近，但是之后随着商品情绪转弱而回落；从基本面来看，近期国内棉花市 场还是缺乏新的驱动。当前国内棉花供应仍充足，而下游的需求处于淡季，下游追高意愿不强，不过回调 的时候点价盘对郑棉期货构成一定支撑；另外，由于外盘近月合约很弱且人民币坚挺，内外棉价差过大令 市场对棉花和棉纱进口增加的担忧依然存在，也继续限制郑棉期价的上涨。关于 2026 年新疆棉花种植面 积下降的预期，阶段性来看也算是交易充分，我们还是倾向于到春节后结合需求情况再去交易未来三年的 目标价格补贴政策和新年度的产量或时间点上更好。维持郑棉期货震荡偏强的判断。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 截至 1 月 30 日当周，ICE 棉花期货波动加大，周一受技术性抛压影响 ICE 棉花跌破 63 美分/磅 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Zhengzhou cotton prices have declined under pressure. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton is 15,992 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm - price quotes have been lowered, and the basis has remained stable. The cotton yarn market has average trading volume, with few new orders. The all - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, with some pre - festival restocking in certain areas but in small quantities [7] - **Operational suggestions**: Overseas, the net long position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise, and the external market has shown signs of recovery. Domestically, the current industrial expectations have been traded, and attention should be paid to the actual decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season. The short - term upside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust, waiting for new drivers, while the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending January 6, the number of long positions in the non - commercial futures positions of CFTC US cotton was 81,409 (+247), increasing for the second consecutive week. The number of short positions was 110,329 (-1,790), changing from an increasing to a decreasing trend. The total ICE positions were 311,647 (+10,685), increasing for the sixth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 9.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [9] - As of January 11, 2026, in the 2025 cotton season, a total of 1,096 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,051,724 bales, totaling 6.7838 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 29,689,201 bales, totaling 6.7026 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area was 207,250 bales, totaling 46,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The data includes various aspects such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have shown a weak oscillating trend since the fourth quarter, with the main contract dipping to a low of 63 cents per pound due to the U.S. government shutdown causing data absence and global trade uncertainties, as well as unfavorable changes in U.S. cotton production estimates and export conditions [1] - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a slight increase in global cotton ending stocks, with initial stocks raised by 120,000 bales, production estimates reduced by 290,000 bales, and consumption estimates lowered by 270,000 bales, resulting in a net increase of 40,000 bales in ending stocks, reflecting overall stability [2] - The U.S. cotton production estimate was raised by 150,000 bales, while consumption was reduced by 100,000 bales, leading to a 200,000 bale increase in ending stocks, totaling 4.5 million bales, with a notable increase in the beginning stocks contributing to this rise [3] Group 2 - The U.S. weekly export report shows a significant increase in weekly cotton contracts, with a total of 66,300 tons signed, marking a 258% week-over-week increase and a 28% year-over-year increase, with Vietnam and Mexico being the largest buyers [4] - Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to decrease due to falling prices and adverse weather conditions affecting planting schedules, with the Mato Grosso state predicting a production of 2.58 million tons, a decrease from previous estimates [5] - In contrast, Pakistan's spinning mills are operating at a high rate, while Indian and Vietnamese mills are experiencing a downward trend in operating rates, with Pakistan's mills performing at their highest levels in three years [6][7] Group 3 - The EU's textile and apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the U.S. increased by 10.68% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with a total import value of €436.75 billion, while U.S. textile and apparel imports showed a slight decline in August [8] - The USDA's December report forecasts China's cotton production for 2025/2026 at 7.3 million tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, while India's production is estimated at 5.22 million tons, indicating limited adjustment potential for both countries [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the USDA projects the cotton planting area in the U.S. for 2025 to be 10.12 million acres, which exceeds market expectations of 9.735 million acres and is higher than the March planting intentions report of 9.867 million acres [1]