Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report expects ICE cotton to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the market needs to wait for the futures to technically determine the bottom support. Domestic cotton futures are predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation. The high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: The opening price was 64.14, the highest was 64.87, the lowest was 63.11, and the closing price was 63.93, down 0.21 or 0.33%. The trading volume was 133,060 lots, a decrease of 81,652 lots, and the open interest was 175,119 lots, an increase of 19,151 lots [4]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: The opening price was 13,450, the highest was 13,525, the lowest was 13,380, and the closing price was 13,460, up 10 or 0.07%. The trading volume was 915,522 lots, an increase of 18,228 lots, and the open interest was 546,911 lots, a decrease of 9,529 lots [4]. - Cotton yarn main contract: The opening price was 19,680, the highest was 19,830, the lowest was 19,645, and the closing price was 19,725, up 30 or 0.15%. The trading volume was 96,663 lots, an increase of 30,658 lots, and the open interest was 20,948 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots [4]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - **ICE cotton**: It remained weak this week. The resumption of the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export data had limited support for ICE cotton. The decline in the overall financial market's risk appetite negatively affected ICE cotton, which hit a new low [5]. - **US cotton weekly export sales data**: As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 45,100 tons, a 28% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the four - week average. The weekly shipment volume was 35,800 tons, a 34% increase from the previous week and a 25% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.029 million tons, accounting for 39% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 285,300 tons, accounting for 28% of the total annual signed volume [5]. - **Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries**: - **India**: In October, textile and clothing exports decreased year - on - year. The cotton acquisition work in the 2025/26 season progressed slowly. In October, the export value of cotton textile products (excluding clothing) was $906 million, a 3% decrease from September and a 15% decrease from the same period last year. The export value of ready - made garments was $1.07 billion, a 7% increase from the previous month but a 13% decrease from October 2024 [6]. - **Brazil**: The market expected a substantial cotton export volume in November. Farmers' sales were still sluggish as over 70% of the 2025 output had been locked in through primary channels [7]. - **Pakistan**: The demand for cotton imports was very limited. As of November 15, the total volume of seed cotton on the market was 4.856505 million bales, a 1% decrease from the same period last year. In October, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.34 billion, the same as the same period last year and a 3.4% increase from September [7][8]. - **Bangladesh**: Cotton import demand was restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit and limited financing channels, as well as competition from low - priced imported yarn from India [8]. - **Australia**: Cotton sowing was completed. In September, the cotton export volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity, slightly lower than 74% in the same period last year [8]. - **Southeast Asian textile industry's operating rate**: As of the week ending November 21, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton price**: In the week of November 21, domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable, and some cotton merchants slightly lowered the sales basis [10]. - **Cotton warehouse receipts**: As of November 21, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,244, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 1,221, totaling 3,465, equivalent to 145,530 tons [11]. - **Downstream situation**: - **Cotton yarn market**: It entered the traditional off - season. The overall price of pure cotton yarn declined, and the market orders decreased. The operating rate of spinning enterprises slightly decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Cotton fabric market**: The transaction continued to be polarized. The overall transaction of clothing fabrics was weak, and the price was dominated by a weak trend. The overall operating load decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise [12]. 3.3. Basic Data Charts The report provides 14 charts, including those on Xinjiang cotton's cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton inventory, and other aspects [13][14][15]. 3.4. Operational Suggestions Wait patiently for ICE cotton to determine the short - term bottom support. Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend due to lack of substantial positive fundamental factors and concerns about over - estimated exports by USDA [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Factors such as stable downstream demand and low commercial cotton inventory support the futures, but potential "low - cost - performance" warehouse receipt deliveries in September, expectations of a bumper new crop and early listing, and a cooling financial market sentiment limit its short - term upward momentum [19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 66.36, reached a high of 67.72, a low of 65.88, and closed at 66.64, up 0.22 with a 0.33% increase. Trading volume was 116,642 lots, an increase of 2,926 lots, and open interest was 159,736 lots, an increase of 2,400 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 13,585, reached a high of 13,730, a low of 13,535, and closed at 13,640, up 55 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volume was 640,948 lots, a decrease of 909,082 lots, and open interest was 260,796 lots, a decrease of 65,017 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 19,730, reached a high of 19,855, a low of 19,590, and closed at 19,605, down 135 with a 0.68% decrease. Trading volume was 30,490 lots, a decrease of 26,111 lots, and open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 12,743 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton was weak and oscillating. It rose first and then fell this week. Short - covering at the beginning of the week drove the rebound, but lack of fundamental drivers, good growth of new US cotton crops, poor US cotton exports, and the decline of other agricultural products led to a decline in the second half of the week. After falling below 66 cents per pound, bargain - hunting buying emerged [5] - As of the week ending July 31, 2024/25 US upland cotton carried over 0.39 million tons weekly; 2025/26 US upland cotton signed 2.48 million tons weekly, with Vietnam signing 1.21 million tons and Peru signing 0.46 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton shipped 4.14 million tons weekly, a 21% week - on - week decrease and a 10% decrease from the four - week average [5] - In India, the sowing progress was slightly slower than last year. As of August 1, the cotton planting area was 10.6 million hectares, compared with 10.8 million hectares in the same period of 2024. The US will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports on August 27 [6] - In Brazil, July exports were lower than expected. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso increased by about 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% this week, compared with 34.7% in the same period last year. Rain delayed the first - crop harvest and raised concerns about cotton quality, but was beneficial to the second - crop yield. In Bahia, the picking was progressing smoothly, and about 40% was completed. The average yield might be lower than expected, and the July export volume was expected to be about 127,000 tons [6] - In Turkey, textile enterprises faced multiple pressures and weak cotton demand. Since August 8, a 15% tariff has been imposed on Turkish exports to the US. The local textile and clothing industry faced high inflation, rising costs, and weak demand. The spinning mill operating rate was about 50% - 60% and might decline further [7] - In Pakistan, the tariff on exports to the US was lower than expected at 19%. As of July 31, the literal market volume was 593,821 bales, an increase of 296,000 bales from the first half of the month. When the US cotton futures price fell below 67 cents per pound, some buyers started to lock in supplies [9] - In Bangladesh, after the tariff on exports to the US was determined, orders recovered. The new additional tariff was 20% on top of the existing 16.5%, lower than the initially proposed 35%. The market's interest in US cotton increased, and some US clothing orders that were previously suspended began to resume [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, and trading was light. In the week of August 8, spot trading was significantly lighter than last week, with only Monday having relatively good transactions. Spinning mills' procurement intention was weak, mainly for rigid demand [11] - As of August 8, there were 8,252 registered warehouse receipts and 330 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,582 lots, equivalent to 360,444 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,923 lots of Xinjiang cotton and 329 lots of local cotton [11] - The downstream situation improved slightly. The trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market improved as the downstream gradually recovered. Spinning mills' quotations were mainly stable, with some offering discounts. The profit was gradually stabilizing. The cash - flow loss of inland spinning mills for C32S was about 500 yuan per ton, while Xinjiang spinning mills still had a small profit [12] - In the all - cotton grey fabric market, orders increased, but the overall demand had not improved significantly. The weaving factory operating rate was maintained at 40% - 50%, with partial recovery. The inventory of weaving factories decreased slightly but remained at a high level [12] 3.3基础数据图表 - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mill cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mill yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprise cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprise cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn - spinning enterprise operating rate (weekly), cotton - cloth enterprise operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 3.4操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the 2025/26 US cotton production and the weekly export data of new US cotton crops [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to policy trends, the delivery game of the 09 contract, the expected opening price of new cotton for the 01 contract, and the actual downstream demand [19]