生意社02月20日讯 | 当日价 | 8690.00 | | --- | --- | | 日涨幅 | 0.00% | | 一年位置 | 低位 | | 最小值 | 8330.00 | | 最大值 | 10290.00 | | 中位值 | 9310 | | 顶位差 | -1600 | | 底位差 | 360 | | 平均值 | 9028.79 | | 警戒 | | 2月20日，生意社棕榈油基准价为8690.00元/吨，与本月初(9196.00元/吨)相比，下降了5.5%。 (文章来源：生意社) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

去年12月下旬以来，豆油期价持续上涨，并创下逾一年来新高。 市场人士普遍认为，本轮豆油期价强势上涨是多重因素共振的结果。 "美国生物柴油政策预期回升与国际原油价格上涨，共同推动全球油脂价格普涨。"中州期货农产品分析 师吴晓杰表示，美国EPA拟提高2026年生物质柴油配额，并调整豁免比例。此消息推动CBOT豆油价格 走高，并传导至国内。此外，地缘局势紧张推动原油走强，进一步为油脂板块走高提供了支撑。 山东齐盛期货油脂油料分析师刘瑞杰则认为，棕榈油价格走强，导致豆棕价差扩大，从而驱动豆油期价 上涨。 刘瑞杰表示，国内豆油表观需求持续高位，去年四季度以来持续去库，预计库存低点可能出现在3—4月 份。 吴晓杰补充道，受国内春节前备货需求影响，部分油厂提货已排队至下月初，导致商业库存较前月下降 约15%。同时，菜油因进口受限持续去库，豆棕价差倒挂也促使市场需求向豆油倾斜，共同助推豆油价 格走强。 豆油不仅需求端有支撑，供应端也很乐观。徽商期货油脂油料分析师郭文伟告诉记者，预计2025/2026 年度巴西大豆丰产1.76亿~1.81亿吨。国内缺豆担忧或被高估。虽然一季度大豆到港量减少，但国家通 过拍卖储备大豆，成交超20 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming MPOB monthly report is expected to indicate that palm oil inventories may reach a nine-month high, which could significantly impact palm oil prices [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Impact - Palm oil inventories are projected to rise, potentially reaching the highest level in nine months [1] - The market is closely monitoring how palm oil prices will react to the forthcoming MPOB report [1]