Group 1 - The benchmark price of palm oil on February 20 is 8,690.00 CNY per ton, which represents a decrease of 5.5% compared to the beginning of the month when it was 9,196.00 CNY per ton [1] - The daily price remains unchanged with a daily increase of 0.00% [3] - The price is currently at a low position for the year, with a minimum value of 8,330.00 CNY and a maximum value of 10,290.00 CNY [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent surge in soybean oil futures prices is driven by multiple factors, including rising biodiesel policy expectations in the U.S. and increasing international crude oil prices [2] - Analysts believe that the anticipated increase in the U.S. EPA's biodiesel quota for 2026 and adjustments to exemption ratios have contributed to the rise in CBOT soybean oil prices, which has also affected domestic prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions have strengthened crude oil prices, providing additional support for the oilseed sector [2] Group 2 - Domestic apparent demand for soybean oil remains high, with continuous destocking since the fourth quarter of last year, and the lowest inventory levels are expected around March to April [2] - The commercial inventory of soybean oil has decreased by approximately 15% compared to the previous month due to pre-holiday stocking demands, with some oil mills experiencing delivery queues extending into early next month [2] - The price gap between soybean oil and palm oil has widened, driving demand towards soybean oil [2] Group 3 - On the supply side, expectations for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season are optimistic, with estimates ranging from 176 million to 181 million tons [3] - Concerns about domestic soybean shortages may be overestimated, as the national auction of reserve soybeans has resulted in over 2 million tons sold, with deliveries concentrated in the January to April period [3] - Future trends in the oilseed sector may continue to rise, with attention needed on palm oil inventory at the end of January and production-demand data in February [3] Group 4 - Some analysts express caution, suggesting that the upside potential for soybean oil prices may be limited, and there could be downward pressure in the medium term [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming MPOB monthly report is expected to indicate that palm oil inventories may reach a nine-month high, which could significantly impact palm oil prices [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Impact - Palm oil inventories are projected to rise, potentially reaching the highest level in nine months [1] - The market is closely monitoring how palm oil prices will react to the forthcoming MPOB report [1]