期货研究报告 2026年02月09日 棕榈油期货：回调企稳，节前谨慎参与 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2026年2月2日—2月8日棕榈油期现共振下行，P2605周跌2.32%收8996元/吨，现 货均价周跌2.4%至9020元/吨，核心由原油大跌、宏观情绪转弱引发，叠加春节备货尾声需求走弱，内外盘 联动回调，基差走强。 盘面节奏：节奏与驱动：2月2日随原油大跌，期现同步下探；2月3—4日马棕出口数据向好，价格短暂 反弹；2月5—8日宏观情绪转弱，需求走弱，期现共振下行，P2605跌破9000元/吨。 展望：马棕1月产量降14.03%、出口增14.89%，去库预期强化，但春节备货尾声，国内需求走弱，近端 供需承压。港口库存小幅累积，进口利润倒挂，现货供应偏紧，基差走强，近月压力大于远月，月差扩大。 MPOB月报公布前后波动加大，原油企稳则价格反弹，需求疲软则回调，P2605在8900—9100元/吨波动。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. Short - term operation is recommended to focus on low - buying transactions. Key factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national average spot price of palm oil was 8,450 - 8,550 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 120 - 150 yuan/ton. Port quotes strengthened with futures, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. The basis fluctuated between - 56 and - 18 yuan/ton, with futures slightly stronger than spot, increasing traders' hedging willingness and keeping downstream stocking at a steady pace [1] Supply Situation - Malaysian palm oil production has decreased as expected, and domestic arrivals have slowed down. From December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month (SPPOMA), and the rainy - season production decline has materialized. From December 1 - 25, exports increased by 43.6% month - on - month (shipping agencies), inventory growth slowed down, and BMD palm oil led the increase, boosting the domestic market. Indonesia's B50 policy is advancing, and biodiesel demand supports the CPO price [1] Demand Situation - Holiday stocking and substitution effects provide rigid support. New Year's Day stocking has started, and food processing enterprises are making small - batch replenishments, with palm oil transactions increasing by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The catering consumption is recovering, and palm oil is substituting for soybean oil in the mid - and low - end markets, enhancing demand resilience [1] Cost - Profit Analysis - The table shows the palm oil shipping schedule quotes and import profit calculations for 2025.12.22. For example, for the January shipping schedule, the CNF in South China is 1055, the forward exchange rate is 7.0032, the import cost is 8858 yuan/ton, the market price is 8558 yuan/ton, and the profit against the market is - 300 yuan/ton [2]