Report Title - Palm Oil Weekly Report [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [3] Core Views and Strategies - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 95 to close at 4,110 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.26%; palm oil 01 contract fell 104 to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19%; soybean oil 01 contract rose 56 to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%; rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 111 to close at 9,533 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18%; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 1.01 to close at 49.63 cents/pound, an increase of 2.08%; ICE canola active contract rose 0.8 to close at 638.7 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.13% [4][7] - Palm oil continued its weakness, but the decline slowed. India's palm oil imports in October decreased month-on-month, confirming the weakening of export demand from the producing areas. According to the MPOB monthly report preview, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons at the end of October, exceeding expectations. As the negative factors are gradually digested, the decline of futures prices slowed. The Sino-Canadian trade relationship is still uncertain, the arrival of rapeseed is decreasing year-on-year, the supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and its resistance to decline is relatively good [4][7] - Macroscopically, the US government shutdown continues, the release of key economic data is stagnant, the December interest rate cut path is still unclear, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate weakly. Fundamentally, the increase in production and weak export demand will lead to a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October. Waiting for today's MPOB report for guidance. It is expected that palm oil will be under pressure in the short term, and as the negative factors are gradually traded, the downward momentum will weaken [4][12] Market Data | Contract | November 7 | October 31 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 49.63 | 48.62 | 1.01 | 2.08% | Cents/Pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4110 | 4205 | -95 | -2.26% | Ringgit/Ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 8660 | 8764 | -104 | -1.19% | Yuan/Ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8184 | 8128 | 56 | 0.69% | Yuan/Ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9533 | 9422 | 111 | 1.18% | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | -476 | -636 | 160 | | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 873 | 658 | 215 | | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Palm Oil (24 Degrees): Guangzhou, Guangdong | 8560 | 8700 | -140 | -1.61% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Grade 1 Soybean Oil: Rizhao | 8310 | 8320 | -10 | -0.12% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Rapeseed Oil (Imported Grade 3): Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 9800 | 9750 | 50 | 0.51% | Yuan/Ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.12% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.32% month-on-month, and the output increased by 6.80% month-on-month. Malaysia's palm oil output from October 1 - 31, 2025 is estimated to increase by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight-year high [8] - According to different institutions' data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from October 1 - 31, 2025 increased by 5.19%, 4.31%, and 26.54% respectively compared with the same period last month [8][9] - India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 16 million tons; palm oil imports decreased by 16% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years; soybean oil imports increased by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% year-on-year to 2.88 million tons, the lowest in three years [9] - The MPOB monthly report preview shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory climbed to a two-year high in October, driven by the output reaching a seven-year high, and its growth rate exceeded export demand. It is estimated that the palm oil inventory will soar by 3.5% in October, reaching 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023. The estimated output of crude palm oil in October is 1.94 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous month, reaching the highest level for that month since October 2018. Palm oil exports in October are expected to increase by 3.8%, reaching 1.48 million tons, increasing for the second consecutive month and reaching the highest level in nearly a year [10] - India's palm oil imports in October fell to a five-year low. The total imports of palm oil, including crude and refined products, were 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 19,920 tons, compared with 16,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,200 tons, compared with 2,320 tons in the previous week [12] Industry News - Indonesia's statistics bureau announced that the country's exports of palm oil and refined palm oil in the first nine months were 17.58 million tons, a 11.62% increase compared with the same period last year [13] - Malaysia's estimated palm oil output in the 2025/26 fiscal year (October - September of the following year) is 19.2 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. The country's output of crude palm oil in the first nine months of this year reached 14.5 million tons, only a slight 0.3% increase year-on-year [13] - Indonesia's estimated palm oil output in the 2025/26 fiscal year is 51 million tons (estimated range between 46 - 56 million tons), 4% higher than the previous estimate but still lower than last year's level. The estimated palm oil output in the 2024/25 fiscal year was revised up to 53 million tons [13] - Thailand's estimated palm oil output in the 2024/25 fiscal year is 3.55 million tons (estimated range of 3.05 - 4.05 million tons), 1.1% lower than the previous estimate, reflecting a decline in yield per unit area. The country's palm oil output in August was 330,000 tons, a 14.6% decrease from the previous month. Although the recent output has decreased, the output from January - August this year reached 2.73 million tons, a 9.5% increase year-on-year [14] Related Charts - The report provides 22 charts, including the price trends of BMD Malaysian palm oil, CBOT US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures price indices, as well as the inventory, output, and import profit trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [15][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 72 to close at 4,449 ringgit/ton, a 1.64% increase; the palm oil 01 contract rose 210 to close at 9,526 yuan/ton, a 2.25% increase; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 92 to close at 8,450 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 29 to close at 9,818 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.9 to close at 51.2 cents/pound, a 1.73% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 10 to close at 617.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.59% decrease [4]. - The slight weekly gain in palm oil was mainly due to strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil in August. Due to the Indian Diwali festival and its cost - effectiveness, the import demand from India increased significantly, providing price support. Market institutions expect the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August to continue to increase to 2.2 million tons, and with limited market driving force, the market showed an overall oscillatory trend. There was limited news on the US soybean oil - related biodiesel policy. The weakening of US soybeans due to concerns about export demand dragged down US soybean oil, which closed down in an oscillatory manner [4][6]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in August were far below expectations, leading to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts. US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. Due to the weak US employment data and OPEC+ in principle agreeing to increase production again in October, oil prices trended weakly in an oscillatory manner. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase slightly. Strong export demand provides price support, while the ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons, limiting the upward momentum of prices. In the short term, the market driving force is limited. Subsequently, the Diwali festival stocking demand in India will continue. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report, and palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | Closing Price on Sep 5 | Closing Price on Aug 29 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 51.2 | 52.1 | - 0.9 | - 1.73% | Cents/pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4449 | 4377 | 72 | 1.64% | Ringgit/ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 9526 | 9316 | 210 | 2.25% | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8450 | 8358 | 92 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9818 | 9789 | 29 | 0.30% | Yuan/ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | - 1076 | - 958 | - 118 | - | Yuan/ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 292 | 473 | - 181 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong | 9380 | 9320 | 60 | 0.64% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of Grade - 1 Soybean Oil in Rizhao | 8510 | 8470 | 40 | 0.47% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of Imported Grade - 3 Rapeseed Oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 9860 | 9900 | - 40 | - 0.40% | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil closed slightly higher last week. The strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil in August, driven by the Indian Diwali festival and cost - effectiveness, provided price support. Market institutions expect the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August to reach 2.2 million tons, and with limited market driving force, it oscillated overall. US soybean oil closed down due to limited biodiesel policy news and the weakening of US soybeans. Canola continued its weekly decline as the Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported canola from Canada until March 9, 2026, keeping demand under pressure [6]. - The MPOB monthly report preview shows that Reuters survey predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, increasing for the second consecutive month to the highest level since August last year; export volume is expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, increasing for the second consecutive month to a nine - month high [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from August 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total production in August was 1.85 million tons [7][8]. - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from August 1 - 31 was 1,421,486 tons, a 10.2% increase from the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, the export volume was 1,341,990 tons, a 15.37% increase. According to SGS data, the expected export volume was 1,170,043 tons, a 30.53% increase. Indonesia's Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January - July 2025, the export volume of Indonesian crude palm oil and refined palm oil was 13.64 million tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [8]. - According to foreign media reports, Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months; soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, the lowest level in six months; sunflower oil imports increased by 27% month - on - month to 255,000 tons, the highest level in seven months; total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% month - on - month to 1.6 million tons, the highest level in 13 months [9]. - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.5069 million tons, an increase of 97,800 tons from the previous week and 397,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2388 million tons, an increase of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 144,800 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 610,100 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week and 16,500 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week and 236,600 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending September 5, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 25,540 tons, compared with 33,760 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,756 tons, compared with 1,573 tons in the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Planters' Association of Ceylon reiterated its call to lift the palm oil planting ban. The association's chairman said they had submitted a proposal, and the current government had shown a positive attitude, believing that the latest committee appointment would approve the lifting of the ban [11]. - A research institution's commodity research report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be revised up to 19.3 million tons, an increase of less than 1% from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.8 - 19.8 million tons, reflecting strong production and good harvesting conditions. The preliminary estimate for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season (October - September next year) is 19.2 million tons [12]. - A research institution's commodity research report shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 49.5 million tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 44.5 - 54.5 million tons, due to strong output in the first half of the year. The preliminary estimate for Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season (October - September next year) is 49 million tons [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 22 charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main palm oil 2509 contract rose by 0.62%, closing at 8110 yuan/ton. In May 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month - on - month to 1.74 million tons. Export demand increased significantly, and India's import demand strengthened due to tariff cuts, providing support for palm oil prices. However, there is still pressure from increased production, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Domestic palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, with a slight decrease in weekly trading volume due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Overall, with both bullish and bearish factors, palm oil is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main palm oil 2509 contract rose by 0.62%, closing at 8110 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Production increased in May, export demand grew, and Indian import demand strengthened; but production pressure persists, and inventory may accumulate. Domestic consumption is stable with a slight decline in trading volume. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With both bullish and bearish factors, palm oil is expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The Dalian palm oil futures prices rose, and the main 2509 contract increased by 0.62%, closing at 8110 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Spread Change**: As of June 6, the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 38 yuan/ton, widening compared to the previous week [17]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 6, the net long position of the top 20 palm oil futures holders was 40,450 lots, an increase of 11,046 lots from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no change from the previous week [23]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of June 6, the palm oil spot price in Guangdong was 8530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous week. The FOB price was 975 US dollars/ton, and the CNF price was 1013 US dollars/ton, both unchanged from the previous week [29]. - **Basis Change**: As of June 6, the basis between the palm oil in Guangdong and the main contract was 470 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous week [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Production and Export in April**: In April 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%. Exports were 1.1023 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [39]. - **Inventory in April**: At the end of April 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 1.8655 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37% [43]. - **Export in May**: According to ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports in May were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April. According to SGS, exports were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April [49]. 3.3.2 Domestic - **Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 364,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.08% [53]. - **Import Profit**: As of June 6, 2024, the price difference between the Guangdong palm oil spot price and the Malaysian import cost was - 160.98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 143.88 yuan/ton from the previous week [57]. 3.3.3 Substitute Oils - **Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 754,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.11%. The rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons from the previous week [60]. - **Price**: As of June 6, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - **Price Spread**: This week, the spot and futures price spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils all narrowed [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Malaysia**: In the 2024/25 season, Malaysian palm oil food consumption was 870,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous year, and industrial consumption was 2.9 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous year [80]. - **Indonesia**: In the 2024/25 season, Indonesian palm oil food consumption was 7.55 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons from the previous year, and industrial consumption was 13,900 tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous year [87]. - **China**: In the 2024/25 season, Chinese palm oil food consumption was 3.77 million tons, an increase of 850,000 tons from the previous year, and industrial consumption was 2.1 million tons, with no change from the previous year [93]. 3.4 Options Market - From the palm oil price trend, it is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of short - selling on rallies due to the expected increase in supply. The palm oil market is expected to be weak with fluctuations as the supply continues to recover. The report also emphasizes the need to monitor production, inventory, and import - export demand in the producing regions [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Advice**: Short - sell on rallies due to supply increase [7]. - **Market Review**: This week, the main palm oil contract 2509 rose by 1.24%, closing at 7984 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The producing areas are in the production - increasing season, with production data showing an upward trend and inventory expected to improve. From May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.72% (SPPOMA data). Export demand is showing signs of recovery, with SGS reporting a 13.73% increase and ITS reporting a 5.25% increase. In China, import costs have slightly decreased, palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, and weekly trading volume has slightly increased. Overall, palm oil is expected to be weak with fluctuations [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main palm oil contract 2509 rose by 0.28% this week, closing at 8006 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spread Change**: As of May 23, the spread between September and January contracts of palm oil was 8 yuan/ton, widening compared to last week [19]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 23, the net long position of the top 20 futures traders in palm oil was 7531 hands, an increase of 8002 hands from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 330, unchanged from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of May 23, the palm oil price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 8550 yuan/ton. The FOB price was 975 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week, and the CNF price was 1013 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [31]. - **Basis Change**: As of May 23, the basis between palm oil in Guangdong and the main contract was 496 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to last week [35]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Upstream - **April Production and Export**: In April 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.686 million tons, a 21.52% increase from March. Exports were 1.1023 million tons, a 9.62% increase from March [41]. - **April Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of April was 1.8655 million tons, a 19.37% increase from March [45]. - **May Export**: From May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 5.3% (ITS data) and 13.7% (SGS data) compared to the same period in April [51]. 3.4.2. Domestic - **Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 359,700 tons, a 6.64% increase from last week and a 9.80% decrease from the same period last year [55]. - **Import Profit**: As of May 23, 2024, the price difference between the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong and the import cost from Malaysia was - 180.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.12 yuan/ton from last week [59]. 3.4.3. Substitutes - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 656,300 tons, a 0.29% increase from last week and a 23.76% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from last week [62]. - **Price**: As of May 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9390 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [69]. - **Price Spread**: This week, the spot and futures price spreads among soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all narrowed [76]. 3.4.4. Downstream - **Malaysia**: In the 2024/25 period, the food and industrial consumption of palm oil in Malaysia increased compared to last year [82]. - **Indonesia**: In the 2024/25 period, the food and industrial consumption of palm oil in Indonesia increased compared to last year [89]. - **China**: In the 2024/25 period, the food consumption of palm oil in China increased, while the industrial consumption remained unchanged compared to last year [95]. 3.5. Options Market - Based on the palm oil price trend, it is recommended to wait and see for now as the market is fluctuating [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy suggests being cautious about the risk of price decline due to the slow recovery of palm oil production [7]. - This week, the main 2509 contract of palm oil rose by 1.24%, closing at 7,984 yuan/ton. In the context of good weather in major producing areas and continuous growth in production, the April supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed that the increase in Malaysian palm oil exports was lower than expected, and the ending inventory increased, which suppressed the palm oil futures market. However, Indonesia raised the special export tax on palm oil, which supported the price. Domestically, the foreign quotation rebounded, the import cost increased, the import profit decreased, the palm oil consumption maintained at a rigid level, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and the weekly trading volume decreased. Overall, palm oil is expected to run weakly under the pressure of seasonal production increase. Later, attention should be paid to production, inventory, and import - export demand in producing areas [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Be cautious about price decline due to slow production recovery [7]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract of palm oil rose 1.24% this week, closing at 7,984 yuan/ton [8][11]. - Market outlook: MPOB's April report showed export growth lower than expected and rising inventory, suppressing the market. Indonesia's tax increase supported the price. Domestically, import cost up, profit down, consumption rigid, and trading volume down. Palm oil is expected to be weak under seasonal production pressure [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price movement: The main 2509 contract of Dalian palm oil rose 1.24% this week, closing at 7,984 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread change: As of May 16, the September - January spread of palm oil was - 4 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to last week [18]. - Position and warehouse receipt: As of May 16, the net long position of the top 20 futures traders in palm oil was 3,108 lots, a decrease of 2,975 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 330 lots, unchanged from last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price change: As of May 16, the palm oil quotation in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The FOB price was 980 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton, and the CNF price was 1,018 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton [30]. - Basis change: As of May 16, the basis between palm oil in Guangdong and the main contract was 552 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to last week [34]. 3.4. Industrial Situation 3.4.1. Upstream - Malaysian production and export in April: Production was 1.686 million tons, an increase of 298,500 tons (21.52% month - on - month) from March. Exports were 1.1023 million tons, an increase of 96,700 tons (9.62% month - on - month) from March [40]. - Malaysian inventory in April: The ending inventory in April was 1.8655 million tons, an increase of 302,700 tons (19.37% month - on - month) from March [44]. - Malaysian export in May: From May 1 - 15, according to ITS, exports were 524,596 tons, an increase of 11.7% from April 1 - 15; according to SGS, exports were 448,972 tons, an increase of 19.2% from April 1 - 15 [50]. 3.4.2. Domestic - Inventory: As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic areas was 337,300 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons (5.28% week - on - week) and a decrease of 62,500 tons (15.62% year - on - year) [54]. - Import profit: As of May 16, 2024, the spread between the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong and the import cost from Malaysia was - 181.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168.99 yuan/ton from last week [58]. 3.4.3. Substitutes - Inventory: As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic areas was 654,400 tons, an increase of 27,600 tons (4.40% week - on - week) and a decrease of 194,500 tons (22.91% year - on - year). The rapeseed oil inventory was 809,500 tons, an increase of 13,600 tons from last week [61]. - Price: As of May 16, the quotation of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the quotation of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9,340 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week [68]. - Spread: This week, the spot and futures spreads among soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all narrowed [76]. 3.4.4. Downstream - Consumption in Malaysia: In the 2024/25 season, the food consumption of palm oil was 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous year; the industrial consumption was 2.9 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous year [82]. - Consumption in Indonesia: In the 2024/25 season, the food consumption of palm oil was 7.55 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons from the previous year; the industrial consumption was 13,900 tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous year [89]. - Consumption in China: In the 2024/25 season, the food consumption of palm oil was 3.77 million tons, an increase of 850,000 tons from the previous year; the industrial consumption was 2.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [95]. 3.5. Options Market - From the trend of palm oil, it is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [100].