正信期货： 东南亚弱现实、澳菜籽即将进入压榨环节、国储大豆拍卖、加菜籽进口扰动等继续施压，不过隔夜原油修复前一日跌幅带动市场情绪缓和，内外 棕榈油跌势放缓，短期油脂板块整体延续偏弱走势。 机构观点 国元期货： 12月中旬以来，棕榈油市场呈现显著下跌态势，豆油、菜油走弱但跌幅相对温和，核心受库存压力、出口疲软及宏观因素拖累。马来西亚11月棕 榈油库存环比激增13%至284万吨，创六年半新高，12月上旬出口同比下滑，累库预期加剧抛售压力；二是宏观与替代需求疲软，国际原油下跌削 弱棕榈油生物柴油属性，林吉特走强增加进口成本，进一步抑制需求；三是消费端疲软，印度11月植物油进口同比大减，国内油厂棕榈油日均成 交量环比锐减，需求端缺乏支撑。短期来看，高库存与弱出口仍是主导逻辑，棕榈油或延续偏弱态势，继续关注马棕库存数据及出口改善情况。 消息面 据外媒报道，马来西亚棕榈油总署(MPOB)网站发布的一份通告显示，马来西亚下调其1月毛棕榈油参考价，出口关税则下调至9.5%。 海关总署12月18日公布的数据显示，中国11月棕榈油进口量为33万吨，同比增加97.8%。1—11月累计进口量为229万吨，同比减少7.6%。 据船运调 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract rising by 1.66% to 8832.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Inventory and Import Data - As of the end of week 46 in 2025, domestic palm oil inventory totaled 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The contract volume for palm oil is 43,000 tons, up by 1,000 tons compared to last week [2] - In October, China's palm oil imports were 220,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 11.7%, while the cumulative imports from January to October reached 1.96 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year [2] - The EU's palm oil import volume for 2025/26 is projected at 1.08 million tons, compared to 1.32 million tons last year [2] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Ningzheng Futures, the decline in October palm oil imports is attributed to shipping delays, leading to a significant increase in domestic supply and inventory in November [3] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that market sentiment is affected by fears in the macro environment, with U.S. stock markets weakening and awaiting key economic data and tech earnings reports [3] - The U.S. biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, contributing to an increase in soybean oil prices, which in turn supports domestic oil prices [3] - India's declining oilseed inventory suggests potential rigid demand for imports, indicating a bullish outlook for palm oil in the short term [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic palm oil market continues to experience weak supply and demand, with mainly rigid demand for procurement. Port prices continue to show a slight decline. The futures price of the P2505 contract on the futures market is temporarily supported by the 20 - day moving average below, showing a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the downward trend of the palm oil futures price may slow down, and it may show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 31, the BMD Malaysian palm oil market was closed for Eid al - Fitr. The continuous palm P2505 contract lacked guidance, with its daily K - line showing a doji star, closing at 9,104 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the settlement price. Trading volume shrank to 784,400 lots, and the open interest was 417,800 lots. The spread between the main soybean and palm oil futures was - 1,112 yuan/ton, and the spread between the main rapeseed and palm oil futures was 260 yuan/ton [3]. - On March 31, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were reported at 9,660 - 9,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit was - 469.83 yuan/ton, and the basis between the average price and P2505 was 310.67 yuan/ton. The spot spread between soybean and palm oil was - 1,349.83 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - According to ITS data, Malaysia's exports in March increased by 0.4%. Exports to China were 54,400 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the same period in February. According to customs data, domestic edible palm oil imports in February were 100,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 210,000 tons, a decrease of 44.9% compared with the same period last year [10]. - Indonesia has raised the palm oil export tax to 4.5% - 10% and increased the export price. It also provides subsidy funds for biodiesel, which drives up costs. The decline in crude oil prices and the speculation of the new US biodiesel policy are also beneficial to Indonesia's B40, but there is no more information on its progress [10]. - As of March 28, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9855 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (59,700 tons) and an increase of 11.36% (202,500 tons) compared with the same period last year. Among them, the palm oil inventory was 368,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.05% (19,600 tons) and a decrease of 30.39% (161,000 tons) compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is deeply inverted, the market is mainly for rigid demand procurement, the arrival volume is relatively small, the inventory has declined, and the basis has changed slightly [10]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The domestic palm oil market will continue to have weak supply and demand. The futures price of the P2505 contract may slow down its downward trend and show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [12].