11月19日，棕榈油期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约震荡走高1.66%，报8832.00元/吨。 中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，中国10月棕榈油进口量为22万吨，同比下滑11.7%。1-10月棕 榈油进口量为196万吨，同比下滑15.3%。 据欧盟委员会，截至11月16日，欧盟2025/26年棕榈油进口量为108万吨，而去年为132万吨。 机构观点 【消息面汇总】 监测数据显示，截止到2025年第46周末，国内棕榈油库存总量为57.4万吨，较上周的55.2万吨增加2.2万 吨；合同量为4.3万吨，较上周的4.2万吨增加0.1万吨。 宁证期货：国内海关数据显示10月棕榈油进口量为22万吨，环比下滑，主要是10月船期延至11月到港， 所以11月国内供应大幅增加，库存迅速增长。印度进口利润较好，买船增加提高未来需求预期，对期价 有所提振。短期来看棕榈油下方支撑较强，操作建议：低多操作。 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，市场恐慌情绪升温，美股继续走弱，等待关键经济数据发布及科技巨头业绩 报告，美元指数震荡运行，油价震荡收涨。基本面上，美国生柴政策或超市场预期，美豆油上涨带动， 国内油脂走强；另外植物油进口大国印度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic palm oil market continues to experience weak supply and demand, with mainly rigid demand for procurement. Port prices continue to show a slight decline. The futures price of the P2505 contract on the futures market is temporarily supported by the 20 - day moving average below, showing a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the downward trend of the palm oil futures price may slow down, and it may show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 31, the BMD Malaysian palm oil market was closed for Eid al - Fitr. The continuous palm P2505 contract lacked guidance, with its daily K - line showing a doji star, closing at 9,104 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the settlement price. Trading volume shrank to 784,400 lots, and the open interest was 417,800 lots. The spread between the main soybean and palm oil futures was - 1,112 yuan/ton, and the spread between the main rapeseed and palm oil futures was 260 yuan/ton [3]. - On March 31, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were reported at 9,660 - 9,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit was - 469.83 yuan/ton, and the basis between the average price and P2505 was 310.67 yuan/ton. The spot spread between soybean and palm oil was - 1,349.83 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - According to ITS data, Malaysia's exports in March increased by 0.4%. Exports to China were 54,400 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the same period in February. According to customs data, domestic edible palm oil imports in February were 100,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 210,000 tons, a decrease of 44.9% compared with the same period last year [10]. - Indonesia has raised the palm oil export tax to 4.5% - 10% and increased the export price. It also provides subsidy funds for biodiesel, which drives up costs. The decline in crude oil prices and the speculation of the new US biodiesel policy are also beneficial to Indonesia's B40, but there is no more information on its progress [10]. - As of March 28, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9855 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (59,700 tons) and an increase of 11.36% (202,500 tons) compared with the same period last year. Among them, the palm oil inventory was 368,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.05% (19,600 tons) and a decrease of 30.39% (161,000 tons) compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is deeply inverted, the market is mainly for rigid demand procurement, the arrival volume is relatively small, the inventory has declined, and the basis has changed slightly [10]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The domestic palm oil market will continue to have weak supply and demand. The futures price of the P2505 contract may slow down its downward trend and show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [12].