后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 华创期货表示，尽管印度对于棕榈油的进口增加，将一定程度支撑棕榈油价格，但棕榈油当前处于增产 季，在主产国产量整体较好的背景下，预计上方空间有限；美国生物柴油政策对于油脂有提振，但若原 油价格进一步走弱，或抑制油脂生物柴油方面的需求，使油脂承压。国内方面，预计7月棕榈油仍呈现 供强需弱态势，基差或低位运行。综合来看，7月棕榈油期价或宽幅震荡运行，价格重心或小幅下移。 混沌天成期货指出，EPA宣布将于7月8日就拟议规则举行线上听证会，如有需要，7月9日可能还会举行 一次额外的听证会；印尼棕油协会（GAPKI）秘书长Hadi Sugeng表示，由于美国威胁对印尼商品征收 32%进口关税，可能将令印尼对美国的棕油出口量减少15%-20%，过去三年对美年均出口量为225万 吨；美国EPA听证会政策预期再次发酵，市场预估马来西亚6月数据偏多，印度6月棕榈油进口量超预 期，巴西生柴政策利多，盘面突破上涨，关注7月8日EPA听证会和宏观驱动。 马来西亚种植及原产业部长周二表示，美国进口商将承受棕榈油关税上调所产生的成本，因为美国没有 棕榈油的替代品。 据欧盟委员会， ...

印度6月棕榈油进口或超80万吨，马棕油夜盘小幅走高！印度"抄底"能否助力马棕油站上4000关口？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the paradox of increasing palm oil exports while palm oil futures remain weak, suggesting a disconnect between current market conditions and future expectations [1] Group 2 - Palm oil exports have seen growth as buyers are locking in low-priced supplies, indicating a strategic move to mitigate future price increases [1] - Despite the increase in exports, palm oil futures are experiencing a sluggish performance, raising questions about market sentiment and potential oversupply concerns [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic palm oil market continues to experience weak supply and demand, with mainly rigid demand for procurement. Port prices continue to show a slight decline. The futures price of the P2505 contract on the futures market is temporarily supported by the 20 - day moving average below, showing a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the downward trend of the palm oil futures price may slow down, and it may show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 31, the BMD Malaysian palm oil market was closed for Eid al - Fitr. The continuous palm P2505 contract lacked guidance, with its daily K - line showing a doji star, closing at 9,104 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the settlement price. Trading volume shrank to 784,400 lots, and the open interest was 417,800 lots. The spread between the main soybean and palm oil futures was - 1,112 yuan/ton, and the spread between the main rapeseed and palm oil futures was 260 yuan/ton [3]. - On March 31, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were reported at 9,660 - 9,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit was - 469.83 yuan/ton, and the basis between the average price and P2505 was 310.67 yuan/ton. The spot spread between soybean and palm oil was - 1,349.83 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - According to ITS data, Malaysia's exports in March increased by 0.4%. Exports to China were 54,400 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the same period in February. According to customs data, domestic edible palm oil imports in February were 100,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 210,000 tons, a decrease of 44.9% compared with the same period last year [10]. - Indonesia has raised the palm oil export tax to 4.5% - 10% and increased the export price. It also provides subsidy funds for biodiesel, which drives up costs. The decline in crude oil prices and the speculation of the new US biodiesel policy are also beneficial to Indonesia's B40, but there is no more information on its progress [10]. - As of March 28, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9855 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (59,700 tons) and an increase of 11.36% (202,500 tons) compared with the same period last year. Among them, the palm oil inventory was 368,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.05% (19,600 tons) and a decrease of 30.39% (161,000 tons) compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is deeply inverted, the market is mainly for rigid demand procurement, the arrival volume is relatively small, the inventory has declined, and the basis has changed slightly [10]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The domestic palm oil market will continue to have weak supply and demand. The futures price of the P2505 contract may slow down its downward trend and show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [12].