我国楼市二十多年来起起落落，经历了三次关键拐点：2008 年四万亿刺激开启十二年上涨周期，2015 年限购放松 棚改货币化引发全国普涨，2017 年 "房住 不炒" 提出后市场分化加剧。如今，随着 2026 年临近，住建部明确释放 "新发展模式" 信号，楼市第四次拐点已悄然临近。不同于以往单纯的涨跌轮回，这 次拐点的核心是游戏规则重构 —— 买房不再是 "闭眼赚"，"好房子" 将成为市场硬通货，购房逻辑彻底改变。 一、住建部定调 "新发展模式"：从 "多盖房" 到 "盖好房" 2025 年 10 月住建部新闻发布会，抛出了楼市未来发展的核心方向：房地产要告别 "追求数量" 的旧时代，迈入 "追求质量" 的新阶段。这场发布会的核心关 键词是 "好房子"，而且给出了通俗易懂的 "六不标准"：不霉、不堵、不漏、不吵、不裂、不臭。 看似简单的六个要求，实则戳中了无数购房者的痛点。想想咱们现在住的房子，返潮发霉、下水道堵塞、墙面开裂、楼上噪音扰民等问题，是不是或多或少 都遇到过？而能完全满足 "六不标准" 的住宅，目前市场上并不多见。这也意味着，"换好房" 的需求依然旺盛，只是购房者的关注点从 "有没有房" 转向了 " ...

Economic Overview - China's economy showed a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, with significant improvements in manufacturing and consumption sectors [1] - Household deposits increased by over 10 trillion yuan, reaching a historical high of 162 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits at 115,000 yuan [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continued to experience a "quantity and price decline" trend in the first half of the year, with the average transaction price of new homes at approximately 9,649 yuan per square meter, a noticeable decrease from 9,847 yuan in the same period last year [3] - The implementation of the new residential project standards aims to enhance the livability of new homes, potentially increasing their premium space [4] - Policies to mitigate real estate risks, such as ensuring project completion and acquiring existing homes for affordable housing, are expected to continue [5] - The inventory of new homes stood at 769.48 million square meters by the end of June, reflecting a growth of over 4% compared to the previous year [10] Automotive Market - Despite being the largest and fastest-growing automotive market globally, fierce price competition among car manufacturers has led to an average profit margin of only 4.8% for domestic car companies [12] - The average price drop for new cars exceeded 11% in the first half of the year, with electric vehicles seeing a 12% decrease [16] - The Ministry of Public Security has issued warnings regarding the safety risks associated with intelligent driving systems, urging consumers to be cautious [18] Deposit and Interest Rate Trends - As of June, the average interest rate for fixed-term deposits in commercial banks has fallen below 1%, indicating a shift towards a "1% era" [19] - A new policy will impose value-added tax on the interest of government bonds and local bonds starting August 8, which may influence investment behaviors [21] - The trend of increasing household deposits has persisted, raising concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating economic growth [21][24]