Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from reliance on policy stimulus to a more self-sustaining recovery, with a shift in focus towards new housing models and economic stability rather than aggressive growth [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - No new major loosening policies for the real estate market were introduced in September and October, with the five-year LPR remaining unchanged at 3.5% for five consecutive months [1]. - Banks are reluctant to lower LPR due to pressure from declining net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% in Q2, below the 1.8% warning line [2]. - Economic recovery provides confidence to policymakers, with GDP growth targets set around 5%, showing a gradual decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q3, indicating stability without the need for aggressive interest rate cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The perception of the real estate market has shifted from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing," reflecting a fundamental change in policy thinking as the most dangerous phase has passed [6]. - The worst moments for the real estate sector appear to be over, with improvements in project delivery and a reduction in corporate defaults, although prices continue to decline [6]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on a "new model" for real estate, emphasizing rental housing, affordable housing, and commercial housing to meet diverse housing needs [8]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Dynamics - Real estate remains a pillar industry but is no longer the primary driver of economic growth; instead, it serves as a stabilizing force [10]. - Over the long term, as the economy recovers and household incomes rise, property prices in many cities are expected to gradually increase, leading to a healthier industry structure [10]. - The current state of the real estate market is characterized by "weak recovery and strong differentiation," with the need for foundational reforms and time to solidify price stability [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a new round of policy easing for the real estate market is imminent due to poor market conditions and declining sales figures [1][3] - The State Council held its 9th plenary meeting on August 18, emphasizing the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous statements [3] - July data shows a significant decline in the real estate market, with national commercial housing sales area at 0.57 billion square meters and sales revenue at 0.53 trillion yuan, marking the lowest sales area since 2009 and the worst sales revenue since 2015 [3][4] Group 2 - Both buyers and developers are showing a lack of confidence, with real estate development investment decreasing by 12% year-on-year from January to July, the largest drop in 28 months [3][4] - The inventory of unsold properties is increasing, with the available area rising to 7.6 billion square meters by the end of July, contrary to the goal of reducing stock [4] - There is an expectation for policy measures in September and October aimed at inventory reduction, such as encouraging demand for improved housing and government purchases [5] Group 3 - The goal of the upcoming policies is to stabilize the market rather than stimulate it, with a clear message that real estate will no longer be used as a quick economic stimulus [5][6] - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to be slow, structural, and differentiated, dependent on the overall economic environment and public income expectations [5][6] - The potential for a temporary opening in the market exists with the introduction of new policies, but true recovery will rely on economic revival and restored consumer confidence [6]