Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in major Chinese cities, highlighting that while supply may decrease in quantity, the quality of offerings is expected to improve, which could maintain market activity but may not significantly boost transaction volumes [1][26]. Group 1: Land Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, land transaction amounts in 300 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities performing significantly better than third and fourth-tier cities [3][5]. - The total land transaction area was 38,982 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of about 10% [5][8]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu accounted for 37% of national land transaction amounts, with each exceeding 350 billion yuan in transactions [8][9]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The expected new supply in five key cities over the next nine months is projected to be 1,944 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29% [11][14]. - The supply peak for projects in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, with over 50% of new supply expected during this period [14][15]. - In contrast, Beijing's supply peak is expected in the first quarter of 2026, while Xi'an's supply rhythm has slowed due to a sluggish housing market [15][18]. Group 3: Product Mix and Market Dynamics - The anticipated new supply will primarily consist of affordable and upgraded housing products, with significant variations in supply and demand across different cities [18][25]. - In Beijing, the proportion of affordable housing is expected to be 29.2%, while in Xi'an, it could reach 62.2%, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand for different product tiers [25][41]. - The supply of mid-range products in Chengdu is expected to be severely insufficient, while high-end products may face oversupply in Shanghai [30][32]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply dynamics in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are expected to stabilize market activity, but the overall impact on transaction volumes may be limited due to declining supply [26][45]. - In contrast, cities like Beijing and Xi'an face potential inventory pressure due to longer absorption cycles, which could lead to market imbalances [45].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a warming trend in the new housing market, with a 3.9% increase in daily housing search heat compared to the previous period, although it remains 10.3% lower year-on-year [4][5]. Core Insights - The new housing market shows signs of recovery, with a notable increase in daily online housing search heat during the May Day holiday period, despite a year-on-year decline [4][5]. - The report highlights a significant divergence in market performance across different cities, with some cities experiencing a decline of over 10% compared to last year [5][7]. - The second-hand housing market has seen a sharp decline in search heat, dropping 15.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in six years [15][16]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The average daily search heat for new homes increased by 3.9% compared to the previous five days and 2.5% compared to the entire month of April [4]. - Among the 66 monitored cities, only a few cities like Chongqing and Changchun maintained stable search heat compared to last year [4][7]. - First-tier and new first-tier cities showed relatively smaller declines in search heat, with Shanghai and Guangzhou having high interest in premium projects [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The search heat index for second-hand homes fell to 0.38, a decrease of 15.3% compared to the same period last year, with first-tier cities experiencing the most significant drop of 20.8% [15][16]. - The decline in second-hand housing market heat is attributed to a fundamental shift in the policy environment and reduced market stimulation [16]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes that consumer spending has shifted towards short-term entertainment experiences, impacting housing demand during the holiday period [5][16]. - The number of domestic travelers reached 314 million during the holiday, reflecting a 6.4% increase year-on-year, which contributed to the diversion of potential homebuyers [5][16].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen showed strong performance during the recent May Day holiday, with significant increases in transaction volumes compared to the previous year [1][2] - The market is experiencing a mix of increased listings and stable prices, with buyers remaining cautious and seeking better deals [2] Group 1: Market Performance - During the May Day holiday, the second-hand housing transaction volume in Shenzhen increased by 66% year-on-year, while new housing transactions rose by 17% [1] - The number of property viewings for second-hand homes increased by 14% year-on-year, with a notable 27.7% rise in signed contracts from the previous year [1] - From May 1 to May 5, major real estate agencies in Shenzhen recorded 20,684 viewings and facilitated 367 transactions, with 63 contracts signed, marking a 36.96% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Buyer Sentiment - There is a notable increase in property listings, with some sellers eager to sell due to market policies and financial pressures, leading to more competitive pricing [2] - The Shenzhen housing market has seen a cooling off from its peak in March, with a 37% year-on-year increase in second-hand transactions, but overall market activity is characterized by a "price for volume" strategy [2] - Expectations for policy support and the introduction of high-quality projects are anticipated to stimulate demand for upgrades and replacements in the housing market [2]