伴随着2026年春节假期的结束，深圳房地产市场也迎来了"开门红"。据多家机构监测数据显示，今年春 节期间深圳楼市活跃度显著回升，新房与二手房的签约量、带看量较往年同期均出现大幅增长，市场回 暖信号清晰，置业"小阳春"正加速到来。 针对全国春节假期楼市的表现，广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，今年春节虽受 旅游出行、房企休假影响整体成交偏少，但刚需刚改盘表现活跃，父母陪同看房、资金支持加速年轻群 体入市。全国重点28城新房假期成交同比增长8%，三四线城市返乡置业需求回暖。 李宇嘉进一步分析道，今年春节返乡置业表现稳健。究其原因，其一在于长假效应：返乡人流较往年更 为密集，部分企业提前放假，促使不少回乡人员计划在乡村及县域进行二次就业或创业，从而拉动了当 地的住房购置需求。其二是市场基本面：当前三四线城市房价跌幅显著收窄并趋于止跌，且房源供应量 相对有限，在价格处于低位的窗口期，有效激发了刚需置业热情。 在成交数据方面，深圳楼市表现出极强的反弹力。深圳中原数据显示，深圳二手住宅成交28套，日均成 交3.1套，较去年春节期间日均上升211.1%；新房成交33套，日均3.7套，上涨125.6%。截至2 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market has shown significant vitality, with a 21% increase in transaction volume during the first 22 days of the lunar December compared to the same period last year, indicating a strong start for the real estate market in the Year of the Rabbit [1] - The high-end segment of the market has accelerated, with a notable increase in the proportion of transactions for properties priced above 4 million, reflecting a shift towards mid-to-high-end housing [1] Transaction Data Summary - The transaction share for properties priced between 4 to 5 million increased from 8.4% to 8.8%, a rise of 0.4 percentage points [2] - The 5 to 6 million segment saw an increase from 4.8% to 5.8%, with a growth of 1.0 percentage points [2] - The 10 to 15 million segment rose from 2.9% to 3.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] - Properties priced above 15 million experienced a significant increase, with a transaction share of 2.6%, up by 1.4 percentage points [2] - Conversely, the share of transactions for properties priced between 2 to 3 million decreased from 24.3% to 20.1%, a decline of 4.2 percentage points [2] Market Dynamics - The current market environment, characterized by continued policy easing and stabilizing market expectations, has positively influenced the purchasing behavior of high-net-worth individuals and improving families [2][3] - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly recognizing the value of premium properties as a means of asset allocation, driven by the rising value of Shenzhen and the strong appreciation potential of high-end real estate [2][3] - Improving families are actively seeking larger and more comfortable homes, which has contributed to the increased transactions in the mid-to-high-end market segment [3] Implications for the Real Estate Market - The acceleration of high-end demand signifies an optimization and upgrading of market structure, indicating a shift towards a more diversified and high-quality real estate market in Shenzhen [3] - The active trading of high-end properties is expected to stimulate related industries, such as high-end renovation, home furnishings, and property services, thereby injecting new momentum into economic growth [3] - Despite the positive trends, the future direction of the market remains influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, policy adjustments, and changes in the financial environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market has shown signs of recovery in January 2026, following a significant adjustment in 2025, with both transaction volume and prices stabilizing and increasing [1][3]. Market Performance - In January 2026, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen reached a near 10-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 18.9% and a year-on-year increase of 80% [2][4]. - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen was 57,800 yuan/m², reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, marking the second consecutive month of price growth [6]. Buyer and Seller Sentiment - A survey indicated that 53% of respondents expect an increase in transaction volume for 2026, while 43% believe prices will remain stable, indicating a consensus on "volume up, price stable" [7]. - 90% of homeowners are unwilling to sell at a loss, with over one-third expecting to sell at least 10% above their cost price, which supports price stability in the market [10]. Capital Market Response - The positive sentiment in the Shenzhen real estate market has also been reflected in the capital markets, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the real estate sector showing strong performance, gaining over 5% in the last week of January [11]. - Analysts from various brokerage firms have noted that while profits for many real estate companies remain under pressure, there are emerging positive signals in the market, suggesting a potential recovery in the sector [12].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing increased activity entering 2026, with a continuous rise in recorded transactions over three weeks [1] - The market is showing significant improvement compared to previous years, with increased viewing and transaction rates, particularly in the Futian district [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The number of property viewings has increased by 30% month-on-month, while transaction volumes have risen by over 20% [2] - An average of 120 property viewings per week is reported by a local real estate agency, indicating high demand [2] - The signing volume of second-hand homes in Shenzhen's Beike cooperative stores increased by 26% from January 1 to January 25 compared to the same period last month [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - A new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, exempts homes sold after two years from value-added tax and reduces the tax rate from 5% to 3% for homes sold before two years, significantly lowering transaction costs [2] - The reduction in tax rates has stimulated demand, particularly among buyers looking to upgrade their living conditions [3] Group 3: Commercial Property Market - The minimum down payment for commercial property loans has been reduced from 50% to 30%, leading to increased activity in the commercial real estate market [4] - A specific apartment project in Nanshan has seen a surge in visitor numbers from 60 to approximately 180 per week following the policy change, with conversion rates improving from 5% to between 10% and 12% [6][7] - The overall new housing market in Shenzhen is also showing signs of recovery, with new home transactions reaching 1,051 units in the third week of January, a 14.5% increase from the previous week [7]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market has been continuously warming up this year, with a recorded transaction volume of 1,680 units from January 19 to 25, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6%, marking three consecutive weeks of rising transaction volumes [1] - Newly built residential properties also saw an increase, with 637 units sold, representing a week-on-week growth of 9.8% [1] - The demand side shows a slight increase in new purchase contracts, with a week-on-week growth of 3.3%, indicating a recovery in both supply and demand in the market [1] Group 2 - Structural characteristics of the market are emerging, with properties priced below 3 million yuan accounting for 29.5% of transactions, up 1.4 percentage points from December 2025, reaching a near one-year high [1] - High-end properties priced above 15 million yuan also saw a slight increase in transaction share, driven by demand from first-time buyers and high-end improvement needs [1] - The entry of four luxury properties into the market since late November has boosted second-hand transactions in luxury areas, particularly in the Shenzhen Bay area, where viewing volumes have increased by approximately 40% since November [1] Group 3 - Market analysis indicates that with the continuous optimization of the policy environment, the positive effects of real estate policies will become more apparent [2] - It is anticipated that in 2026, the Greater Bay Area real estate market will gradually stabilize amidst fluctuations, transitioning from a "policy-driven market" to a "demand-driven market," with genuine residential and improvement needs becoming the dominant forces [2]

Core Insights - The reports from Shenzhen's mainstream real estate agencies reveal significant changes in the housing market, particularly regarding the age and turnover rates of properties [1][2][4]. Group 1: Property Age Trends - The highest turnover rate for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has shifted from properties aged 16-20 years to those aged 21-30 years, with the latter accounting for 31.1% of transactions in 2024 and 33.6% in 2025 [1][4]. - Over the past five years, properties aged 16-30 years have consistently made up over 50% of transactions, indicating a strong market preference for these age groups [1][4]. - The proportion of transactions for properties older than 30 years remains minimal, suggesting a lack of market interest in these older homes [2][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has increased, with the highest monthly negotiation space recorded at 11.2% in December 2025, compared to 9% at the end of 2024 [10][12][15]. - Young buyers in Shenzhen are becoming more pragmatic, with the proportion of second-hand home transactions rising from 47% in 2023 to 60% in 2025, and a significant increase in new home sales from 5,500 units in 2023 to 13,330 units in 2025 [20][30]. - The primary buyer demographic is shifting towards individuals aged 31-40, who now represent over 50% of the market, while younger buyers (aged 20 and below) are increasingly opting for properties under 90 square meters [23][28][30]. Group 3: Regional Variations - In districts like Futian, Nanshan, and Luohu, properties aged 16-30 years account for over 60% of transactions, with Futian showing an even higher concentration of 55% [5][8]. - In contrast, areas such as Guangming and Pingshan see a dominant market for properties under 10 years old, with Guangming having over 80% of transactions in this category [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for Future Market Trends - The ongoing transition in Shenzhen's housing market reflects a broader trend towards the replacement of older properties, with a focus on immediate living conditions rather than speculative future developments [31][33]. - The increasing presence of younger buyers in the luxury market, with 31.1% of high-value transactions attributed to individuals from the post-90s generation, indicates a shift in wealth accumulation and housing preferences [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen, with a 25% year-on-year growth in signed contracts from January 1 to January 18, 2026, compared to the same period last month [1] - The performance across different districts in Shenzhen shows a "blooming everywhere, with core areas leading" trend, with the top three districts—Futian, Nanshan, and Longgang—experiencing increases of 44%, 37%, and 32% respectively [1] - The total number of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen reached 1,654 units last week, marking a 3.7% increase compared to the previous week, indicating a sustained upward trend in transactions since the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute's chief researcher, Li Yujia, emphasizes the government's dual approach to housing policy: improving the supply efficiency of new homes and promoting the exchange of old for new in the second-hand market to stabilize emotions and gradually achieve a stop to price declines [2] - According to the China Index Academy, as the housing market transitions into a stock era, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions is expected to rise, with second-hand homes accounting for approximately 65% of transactions in 30 major cities by 2025, an increase of about 4 percentage points from 2024 [2] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou are seeing second-hand housing transactions exceed 60% of total sales, reflecting a shift in demand towards second-hand properties for first-time buyers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market is experiencing a "tail-end" trend, with transaction volumes increasing significantly, driven by seasonal factors and a shift towards more rational pricing strategies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the second week of 2026, Shenzhen recorded 1,595 second-hand housing transactions, a 43% increase compared to the previous week, attributed to a recovery in volume following the New Year holiday [2]. - The total annual transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shenzhen for 2025 was 56,200 units, a slight increase of 3% year-on-year, while the recorded volume reached 69,800 units, up 4.3% [3]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Shenzhen was approximately 59,000 yuan per square meter in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a slowdown in the number of new listings for second-hand homes, with a 10% decrease in weekly new listings since late December 2025 [2][4]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has reached 60% of the market, driven by demand from first-time buyers who are sensitive to pricing [3]. - The overall inventory of new homes in Shenzhen decreased to 3.27 million square meters by the end of 2025, the lowest in four years, although the time required for inventory turnover has increased to approximately 15.3 months [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government efforts aimed at improving the quality and affordability of new housing supply, as well as facilitating the second-hand housing market [7]. - The transaction cycle for second-hand homes has extended, with an average of over 200 days, indicating challenges in selling properties [7]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations for more conservative sales strategies from developers in 2026 [7].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market shows resilience at the beginning of the year, with transaction volume reflecting a "price for volume" characteristic despite being in a buyer's market [1] - In the second week of January 2026, Shenzhen recorded 1,595 second-hand housing transactions, a 43.0% increase from the previous week, which had seen a 22.6% decrease due to the New Year holiday [1] - Since March 2025, the transaction volume has remained above the 5,000 units threshold for 10 consecutive months, indicating a relatively active market [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 54,000 yuan per square meter in 2025, although the decline has narrowed compared to previous years [1] - The new housing market in Shenzhen is performing relatively weakly, with only 918 new homes sold last week, a 35.3% decrease from the previous week [2] - The key to stabilizing housing prices lies in the second-hand market, as the decline in new home prices is largely influenced by the expanding drop in second-hand prices [2]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market is experiencing a recovery, with transaction volumes increasing while prices show a slight decline, indicating a "price for volume" strategy being adopted by sellers [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, Shenzhen's second-hand residential transactions reached 56,217 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, marking the highest number of transactions in five years [1] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in Shenzhen fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 54,000 yuan per square meter, but the decline is less severe compared to previous years [3][6] - The market has shown stability, with transaction volumes remaining above the "boom-bust line" for ten consecutive months, indicating a relatively active market [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "905 New Policy" has relaxed purchase restrictions in non-core areas, stimulating demand from first-time buyers and contributing to increased transaction volumes [1][7] - The first-time home loan interest rate in Shenzhen dropped to 3.05%, the lowest in recent years, easing the financial burden on buyers [7] - Adjustments in public housing loan limits have allowed for higher borrowing amounts, further supporting the affordability of homes priced below 3 million yuan [7] Group 3: Buyer Demographics - Homes priced below 3 million yuan accounted for 45% of transactions in 2025, reflecting the dominance of first-time buyers in the market [6] - The price adjustments in the market have made homes in non-core areas more accessible, with average prices significantly lower than those in core districts [5][6] Group 4: Regional Trends - The Longgang district led the city in transaction volume with 13,446 units, while the Guangming district saw a remarkable 54% year-on-year increase in transactions, attributed to improved transportation and price competitiveness [4][5] - Non-core areas, including Bao'an and Longgang, have shown significant growth in transaction volumes, contrasting with the more stable performance of core districts like Futian and Nanshan [4][5]