中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2025. 10. 30 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com 利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 总体而言，随着政策利率步入中性利率区间，美联储官员分歧加剧。我们认为 Powell 对 12 月降息预期的打压主要反映 这样的分歧。经济方面，尽管劳动力市场降温较为渐近，但总体劳动力市场下行风险上升的表述，以及 Powell 对通胀的 下行趋势的乐观态度，依然为继续降息提供支撑。因此我们认为虽然强烈的分歧使得 12 月降息门槛显著抬高，但 9 月 点阵图所隐含的年内三次降息仍是基准情形，12 月降息仍有较大可能。 附录 1： FOMC 声明变更 | Ec ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0% was interpreted as a "hawkish cut," indicating internal divisions regarding future monetary policy direction [2][10][29]. Group 1: October FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, but there were dissenting votes advocating for a larger cut or no cut at all [20]. - The economic outlook has improved marginally, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 revised upward to an annualized rate of 3.9%, compared to previous quarters [21]. - The statement on employment and inflation remained unchanged, but the overall economic activity is now described as expanding at a moderate pace [21]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly from 92.3% to 68.9%, leading to increased volatility in the stock market and a rebound in the dollar index and Treasury yields [33]. - Despite the hawkish tone, there is still a strong likelihood of a rate cut in December, driven by a cooling labor market and manageable inflation risks [6][14]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Employment Trends - The labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with private employment figures indicating a decline in job creation [6][14]. - Inflation, particularly core PCE, is currently at 2.8%, with expectations that it may peak around 3% in the fourth quarter [14][32]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Policy Adjustments - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction by December, transitioning to a strategy of reinvesting maturing securities while maintaining a stable portfolio structure [4][22]. - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is influenced by rising liquidity pressures in the money market and the need to align reserve levels with economic conditions [23].