▎1-4月白酒产量130.8万千升 2025年1-4月，全国规模以上企业白酒（折65度，商品量）产量130.8万千升，同比下降7.8%；其中4月 产量28.1万千升，同比下降13.8%。（国家统计局） ▎泸州老窖到访中国食品院 5月16日，泸州老窖股份有限公司副总经理、董事会秘书李勇带队到访中国食品院，与中国食品院党委 书记、总经理郭新光和首席专家王德良座谈交流。双方回顾了前期合作交流成果，并就博物馆建设、沉 浸式体验、智能感官如何赋能企业营销等议题展开深度探讨。（国家酒类品质与安全国际研究中心） ▎古井全国化覆盖率已超70% 5月20日，古井贡酒2024年度业绩说明会召开，会上，就年度增长目标问题，古井方面表示，在人口增 长逐渐放缓与行业存量竞争的双重影响之下，降速发展成为白酒行业共识。 全国化方面，古井表示，公司持续坚持"全国化、次高端"战略，目前安徽省内继续保持稳健增长，市场 份额在稳步提升；省外聚焦核心省区，持续推进"三通工程"，稳住存量市场，开拓增量市场。目前全国 化覆盖率已达到70%以上，省内、省外结构占比为6:4；公司将借鉴省内的发展经验，在省外打造一批 规模省区、规模市场、规模客户，进一步提高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has shifted from high-speed growth to structural growth in the white liquor industry, acknowledging challenges such as oversupply, inventory issues, and intense competition [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.22% [2] Growth Strategy - The company has not set a performance target for 2025, which is seen as a response to the current economic cycle and industry challenges [2] - The company continues to adhere to a "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on market construction and core provinces [2][3] Market Expansion - The company has achieved over 70% national coverage, with a provincial to external market ratio of 6:4 [3] - The company aims to enhance its market share in both provincial and external markets by leveraging its development experience [3] Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye in its home province of Anhui [3] - The company is committed to maintaining steady growth in Anhui while expanding into core external markets [3] Stock Performance - The company's stock price has declined from approximately 169 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to around 157 yuan currently, down from 210 yuan at the start of 2024 [4] - The company is implementing a market value management system to enhance investor returns and maintain investor interests [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has decided not to set specific growth targets for 2025, reflecting a broader industry consensus on slowing growth due to various macroeconomic factors and increased competition [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.517 billion yuan, growing by 20.22% compared to the previous year [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities was 4.727 billion yuan, marking a 5.15% increase year-on-year [2]. - The white liquor business revenue was 22.865 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.43% and a gross margin of 81.74% [2]. - The "Year Original Sauce" series saw significant growth, generating 18.086 billion yuan in revenue, up 17.31%, with a gross margin of 86.12% [2]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - The company continues to adhere to a "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on market construction and core provincial areas [6][7]. - The company has achieved a national coverage rate of over 70%, with a provincial to non-provincial sales ratio of 6:4 [7]. - The company aims to capture the mid-to-high-end market with its "Gu 20" product while also consolidating its offerings in the mass market [7]. Group 3: Industry Context - The white liquor industry is experiencing a transition from rapid growth to structural growth, influenced by high inventory levels, price inversions, and intense competition [6]. - The declining marriage rates, with a reported 20.5% drop in 2024, are impacting traditional consumption scenarios for liquor [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth despite external pressures, indicating a trend towards sustainable high-quality growth [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 235.8 billion and net profit of 55.2 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 16.4% and 20.2% respectively [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue and net profit showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a slight decrease of 0.7% respectively [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 91.5 billion and net profit of 23.3 billion, with year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 12.8% respectively [1][2]. Product and Market Performance - The product structure is expected to improve steadily in 2024, with notable performance from products such as Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 [1]. - In 2024, the company’s revenue from different product lines included 180.9 billion from aged raw liquor, 22.4 billion from Gujing Gongjiu, and 25.4 billion from other products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.3%, 11.2%, and 15.1% [2]. - The company continues to focus on inventory reduction and sales activation in provincial markets, maintaining a competitive edge in Hefei while expanding in other regions [1][2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 increased by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9%, attributed to an upward shift in product structure [3]. - The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.6 percentage points each, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 26.2% and a management expense ratio of 6.1% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 79.7%, but the net profit margin improved to 25.5%, reflecting ongoing enhancements in profitability [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, with a focus on sustainable development and a strategy targeting national expansion and premium product lines [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been slightly adjusted to 11.49 and 12.85 respectively, with a projected CAGR of 14% for net profit, surpassing comparable companies [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 229.80, based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [4].