Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

一纸"禁酒令"叠加近期大促导致的产品跌价，高端白酒近期过得有点难。 近期，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，在政策和消费环境的变化下，高端白酒消费受 到较大影响。其中，此前颁布的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》被称为最严"禁酒令"，新规发布后 白酒行业瞬间被推上舆论风口，虽然政务消费占比已"忽略不计"，但部分商务接待场合却受到一定影 响。 与此同时，"超长待机"的618大促以及即时零售的杀入，高端白酒在持续跌价的基础上"雪上加霜"，飞 天茅台补贴后零售价2000元左右、第八代五粮液900元出头，国窖1573到手900元，青花郎及君品习酒在 700元上下……高端白酒价格带进一步下移。 不过，正如十多年前白酒从政务消费为主转型至商务消费一样，政策环境和价格变化正在促使高端白酒 进入另外一个新的转型期，从商务场景"出走"之后，高端白酒正瞄准个人小酌、聚会及家庭宴席等新的 大众消费场景。 部分商务场景受限叠加价格下跌，高端酒不再"高端"？ 基于公务接待用酒量已"忽略不计"的大背景下，因此在本次"禁酒令"颁布之时，业界认为，理论上商务 接待不受"禁酒令"影响，前景"尚算乐观"，但是在间接上，该场景的饮酒人群或 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 在2023年底全球经销商大会上，古井贡酒吹响"冲向300亿、奋进新征程"的号角，但那成了绝唱，后续再也不听不到300亿这个目标数字；2024年古井贡近些 年首次没有实现"精准"增长计划，且在年报中对2025年也仅给出一个模糊的"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"的营收计划。 论业绩，古井贡酒算是当前白酒赛道除茅台外"最靓的仔"，2024年营收和净利分别同比增长16.41%、20.22%；25年Q1营收和净利增速仍保持双位数增长， 分别为10.38%和12.84%，占了行业第二和第一的位置。 而且，过去古井贡酒凭借国资背景其实在省内找不到真正的对手（老对手口子窖和迎驾贡酒都是民营企业），但新"禁酒令"实际上对地方"政商酒"会造成深 远影响。 但有业内人士认为，古井贡酒的高增还是通过给渠道压货完成，增长不够健康。这看起来有些道理，复盘古井贡过往的增长，其以"年份原浆"打开次高端市 场，坚持深度分销在徽酒里断层第一，虽然未能成功全国化，但在行业下行周期已表现很亮眼。 所以未来古井贡酒是增长还是下滑的核心在3点，首先是产品能不能打（品牌力）；如果相对较弱，是否 ...

研究报告 Research Report 20 Jun 2025 古井贡酒 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company (000596 CH) 古井贡酒跟踪报告：砥砺前行，价值显现 Building on strengths, value becomes apparent [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info 上调至优于大市 ] Upgrade to OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb135.90 目标价 Rmb191.00 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 BB+ 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb67.09bn / US$9.33bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$54.11mn 发行股票数目 408.60mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 ...

"禁酒令"发布后至今不到一月，对酒类、尤其白酒行业的震撼，不仅没有减弱，反而进一步加深。 从结构上看，"禁酒令"对不同价格带的白酒企业，影响各有不同。 300 元以下的中低端酒，主要是居民自饮和宴饮，受影响相对偏小。受影响比较大的，主要是中高 端白酒。 导 语： "禁酒令"之后，本省政务口的影响力资源趋近于无。长期来看，古井贡品牌力和产品结 构向上的升级进度，将受很大波及。 "禁酒令"升级 禁令发布前一日 5 月 17 日到 6 月 13 日， 飞天茅台跌破 2000 元心理关口，从 2080 元 / 瓶下滑至 1960 元 / 瓶。 受"禁酒令"较大牵连的白酒，业内人士认为，主要是带有一定"政商"色彩的白酒，比如古井贡酒（ 000596.SZ ）和今世缘（ 603369.SH ）等。 从"禁酒令"发布后的股价涨跌幅看，也反映了这一认识。 | 公司名称 | 潔跌幅 | | --- | --- | | | (5月17日至6月12日) | | 山西汾酒 | -15.20% | | 今世缘 | -13.11% | | 古井贡酒 | -12. 40% | | 迎驾贡酒 | -11.00% | | 泸州老窖 | -10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 618 shopping festival has led to significant price reductions in the Chinese liquor market, particularly for high-end baijiu brands, as manufacturers aim to alleviate inventory pressure during a seasonal consumption lull [1][22]. Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 sampled baijiu products saw a decline in average retail prices, with notable drops in high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][2]. - The average retail price of Moutai in Guangzhou is approximately 2404 RMB, down over 100 RMB from the previous period [2]. - In Shenzhen, most products remained stable, but Moutai was largely unavailable, leading to price fluctuations [6][7]. - In Dongguan, Moutai's price increased significantly due to supply instability, rising from 2299 RMB to 2800 RMB [11][12]. Price Changes by Product - High-end products like the Eighth Generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experienced price drops, with Guojiao 1573 decreasing from 1075 RMB to 1004 RMB [12][13]. - The average price of the high-end product Junpin Xijiu fell to around 845 RMB in Guangzhou, with significant reductions noted across various retail channels [2][3]. - The price of Qinghualang in Dongguan dropped from 1055 RMB to 965 RMB, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in the market [12][13]. E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have seen more pronounced price reductions, with many baijiu brands offering discounts and promotional activities during the 618 festival [16][20]. - On Tmall, the price of Hong Xifeng dropped from 1157 RMB to 1056 RMB, while Guojiao 1573 and Gujing Gongjiu also saw minor declines [19]. - The overall sales volume for liquor on Tmall surged by 72% year-on-year during the promotional period, indicating a positive response to lower prices [19][22]. Market Dynamics - The current price declines are attributed to a structural transformation in the baijiu industry, exacerbated by seasonal consumption patterns and increased competition from online channels [22]. - The price index for national baijiu showed a slight decrease of 0.35% in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in maintaining price stability amid aggressive promotional strategies [22]. - Manufacturers are facing pressure to manage inventory while navigating the complexities of pricing strategies in a competitive market environment [22].

Core Viewpoint - The annual shareholder meeting of Gujing Gongjiu highlighted the company's strong performance in 2024, with a focus on navigating the current challenges in the liquor industry and expanding into the health sector [2][3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Gujing Gongjiu achieved a total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [2]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment cycle, prompting discussions among shareholders about how Gujing Gongjiu can successfully navigate this period, similar to its performance from 2012 to 2015 [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Gujing Gongjiu is implementing a "liquor + health" strategy, focusing on expanding its product offerings beyond traditional liquor to include health-oriented beverages [3][6]. - The company is optimizing its product structure and exploring innovations, including the integration of liquor with health and wellness products, as well as low-alcohol options [8][9]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer trends, particularly among younger demographics, which is influencing the company's marketing and product development strategies [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a downward trend in liquor prices in major cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, with over two-thirds of products experiencing price declines [1][2][4] - In Guangzhou, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to an average of 2579.73 yuan per bottle, with some retailers offering it at around 2300 yuan, while other premium products like Wuliangye have seen a slight decrease of 18 yuan per bottle [2][3] - Shenzhen's market shows a similar trend, with over two-thirds of sampled products experiencing price drops, although some prices may be artificially inflated due to limited availability in certain channels [4][5] Group 2 - In Dongguan, nearly half of the sampled products maintained stable prices, with only 8 out of 21 products showing a decline, while the price of Luzhou Laojiao increased by 61.1 yuan to 1075.6 yuan per bottle due to replenished stock in certain channels [7][8] - The article notes that the upcoming 618 shopping festival has led to price adjustments on e-commerce platforms, with 15 out of 21 sampled premium liquors experiencing price reductions, while only one liquor saw an increase [9][10] - A comparison between the Bay Area and Southwest liquor prices reveals that the Bay Area's retail prices are significantly higher, with differences ranging from 15 to 82 yuan, attributed to higher demand for premium products in the region [11][12]

Production and Market Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the production of liquor in China reached 1.308 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, with April's production at 281,000 kiloliters, down 13.8% year-on-year [1] - The national coverage rate of Gujing Gongjiu has exceeded 70%, with a focus on maintaining market share in core provinces while expanding into new markets [2] - The average price index for liquor in mid-May showed a slight decline of 0.03%, with the index for famous liquor down 0.06% and local liquor down 0.01% [3][4] Company Developments - Luzhou Laojiao's management visited the China Food Institute to discuss collaboration on museum construction and marketing strategies [1] - Gujing Gongjiu plans to optimize its product structure and expand its market share in various price segments, focusing on its core products [2] - Langjiu Group emphasizes quality construction and aims to enhance the experience at its distillery while aligning production with brand development [3] New Product Launches - Gubeichun launched three strategic new products, "Gold Edition," "Silver Edition," and "Hong Edition," to boost consumption and expand its market presence [3] Regulatory and Quality Control Initiatives - The Ningxia Helan Mountain wine industry park is conducting a quality safety inspection to ensure compliance in the use of inputs and production processes [6] Leadership Changes - Qingdao Beer appointed Jiang Zongxiang as the new chairman, with interim responsibilities for the presidency until a successor is chosen [5] - Zhang Daohong was elected as the new president of the Yichang Enterprise Federation [5] - Zhang Li was appointed as the general manager of Jiu Bian Li [5] Investment Projects - A 5 billion yuan project for the production of sauce-flavored liquor is set to be established in the Bozhou District, covering an area of 1,080 acres [5]

两大白酒同日业绩说明会共议全国化： 汾酒长江以南下沉县级空白市场 古井贡酒在省外打造规模省区 【中国白酒网】5月20日下午，山西汾酒、古井贡酒双双举行了2024年度业绩说明会。这两家近年 增长最突出的头部白酒，所处发展状态也颇有共性，都处于省内已经占据绝对领先、全国化有待持续推 进的阶段。 记者注意到，业绩说明会上，投资者提问主要围绕发展前景、发展规划、业绩预期、分红回购等方 面提问，其中省外进展成为两家白酒的投资者共同关注的问题。 全国化之外，年轻化也是投资者们高度关心的命题。 山西汾酒董秘许志峰表示，"汾酒年轻化"是随着产品性价比、市场营销、终端消费自然形成，从 2025年开始"汾酒年轻化"探索1.0版本，主体思路是"7个年轻化"：颜值年轻化、产品表达年轻化、品质 表达年轻化、文化表达年轻化、传播形式年轻化、意见领袖年轻化、传播渠道年轻化，目标是共情、共 识、共享。 面对近年白酒行业趋势，山西汾酒副总经理、总会计师王怀表示，近年来白酒行业结构性分化加 剧，高端化、集中化趋势显著，汾酒将继续把握清香品类优势，通过全国化布局，实现稳健增长。 2024年，山西汾酒省外市场收入占比超过62%，省外收入增速也快于省 ...