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地方“政商酒”被重创,古井贡酒会怎样?
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-20 10:57
出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 在2023年底全球经销商大会上,古井贡酒吹响"冲向300亿、奋进新征程"的号角,但那成了绝唱,后续再也不听不到300亿这个目标数字;2024年古井贡近些 年首次没有实现"精准"增长计划,且在年报中对2025年也仅给出一个模糊的"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"的营收计划。 论业绩,古井贡酒算是当前白酒赛道除茅台外"最靓的仔",2024年营收和净利分别同比增长16.41%、20.22%;25年Q1营收和净利增速仍保持双位数增长, 分别为10.38%和12.84%,占了行业第二和第一的位置。 而且,过去古井贡酒凭借国资背景其实在省内找不到真正的对手(老对手口子窖和迎驾贡酒都是民营企业),但新"禁酒令"实际上对地方"政商酒"会造成深 远影响。 但有业内人士认为,古井贡酒的高增还是通过给渠道压货完成,增长不够健康。这看起来有些道理,复盘古井贡过往的增长,其以"年份原浆"打开次高端市 场,坚持深度分销在徽酒里断层第一,虽然未能成功全国化,但在行业下行周期已表现很亮眼。 所以未来古井贡酒是增长还是下滑的核心在3点,首先是产品能不能打(品牌力);如果相对较弱,是否 ...
古井贡酒(000596):跟踪报告:砥砺前行,价值显现
Haitong Securities International· 2025-06-20 09:05
研究报告 Research Report 20 Jun 2025 古井贡酒 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company (000596 CH) 古井贡酒跟踪报告:砥砺前行,价值显现 Building on strengths, value becomes apparent [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info 上调至优于大市 ] Upgrade to OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb135.90 目标价 Rmb191.00 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 BB+ 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb67.09bn / US$9.33bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$54.11mn 发行股票数目 408.60mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 ...
“最严禁酒令”重创地方“政商酒”,古井贡突然进入冰河期
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-06-15 11:39
"禁酒令"发布后至今不到一月,对酒类、尤其白酒行业的震撼,不仅没有减弱,反而进一步加深。 从结构上看,"禁酒令"对不同价格带的白酒企业,影响各有不同。 300 元以下的中低端酒,主要是居民自饮和宴饮,受影响相对偏小。受影响比较大的,主要是中高 端白酒。 导 语: "禁酒令"之后,本省政务口的影响力资源趋近于无。长期来看,古井贡品牌力和产品结 构向上的升级进度,将受很大波及。 "禁酒令"升级 禁令发布前一日 5 月 17 日到 6 月 13 日, 飞天茅台跌破 2000 元心理关口,从 2080 元 / 瓶下滑至 1960 元 / 瓶。 受"禁酒令"较大牵连的白酒,业内人士认为,主要是带有一定"政商"色彩的白酒,比如古井贡酒( 000596.SZ )和今世缘( 603369.SH )等。 从"禁酒令"发布后的股价涨跌幅看,也反映了这一认识。 | 公司名称 | 潔跌幅 | | --- | --- | | | (5月17日至6月12日) | | 山西汾酒 | -15.20% | | 今世缘 | -13.11% | | 古井贡酒 | -12. 40% | | 迎驾贡酒 | -11.00% | | 泸州老窖 | -10 ...
食品饮料行业双周报:白酒短期承压,大众品关注高景气赛道-20250609
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-06-09 13:16
[Table_Main] 行业研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 周报、月报 [Table_Title] 白酒短期承压,大众品关注高景气赛道 ——食品饮料行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 食品、饮料与烟草行业 2025 年 06 月 09 日 行情回顾 1)近 2 周(5.26-6.6),A 股食品饮料行业(SW)下跌 2.12%,跑输 上证指数 3.22pct,跑输深证成指 2.62pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 1.90pct。 2)细分行业方面,在 A 股食品饮料各细分行业(SW)中,近 2 周, 软饮料(+9.45%)、零食(+5.48%)、其他酒类(+4.98%)涨幅居前, 乳品(-3.81%)、白酒(-3.64%)、调味发酵品(-1.26%)跌幅居前。 3)个股方面,在 A 股食品饮料行业(SW)所有个股中,近 2 周,均 瑶健康(+72.44%)、海南椰岛(+20.26%)、妙可蓝多(+19.95%) 涨幅居前,五芳斋(-10.35%)、ST 加加(-6.92%)、山西汾酒(-5.41%) 跌幅居前。 食饮行业重点数据跟踪 1)白酒:根据同花顺 Ifind 数据 ...
酒商商讯:前4月白酒产量超130万千升;古井回应投资者;青啤/酒便利人事
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 22:36
▎1-4月白酒产量130.8万千升 2025年1-4月,全国规模以上企业白酒(折65度,商品量)产量130.8万千升,同比下降7.8%;其中4月 产量28.1万千升,同比下降13.8%。(国家统计局) ▎泸州老窖到访中国食品院 5月16日,泸州老窖股份有限公司副总经理、董事会秘书李勇带队到访中国食品院,与中国食品院党委 书记、总经理郭新光和首席专家王德良座谈交流。双方回顾了前期合作交流成果,并就博物馆建设、沉 浸式体验、智能感官如何赋能企业营销等议题展开深度探讨。(国家酒类品质与安全国际研究中心) ▎古井全国化覆盖率已超70% 5月20日,古井贡酒2024年度业绩说明会召开,会上,就年度增长目标问题,古井方面表示,在人口增 长逐渐放缓与行业存量竞争的双重影响之下,降速发展成为白酒行业共识。 全国化方面,古井表示,公司持续坚持"全国化、次高端"战略,目前安徽省内继续保持稳健增长,市场 份额在稳步提升;省外聚焦核心省区,持续推进"三通工程",稳住存量市场,开拓增量市场。目前全国 化覆盖率已达到70%以上,省内、省外结构占比为6:4;公司将借鉴省内的发展经验,在省外打造一批 规模省区、规模市场、规模客户,进一步提高 ...
山西汾酒和古井贡酒同日举行业绩说明会共议全国化
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-21 23:36
两大白酒同日业绩说明会共议全国化: 汾酒长江以南下沉县级空白市场 古井贡酒在省外打造规模省区 【中国白酒网】5月20日下午,山西汾酒、古井贡酒双双举行了2024年度业绩说明会。这两家近年 增长最突出的头部白酒,所处发展状态也颇有共性,都处于省内已经占据绝对领先、全国化有待持续推 进的阶段。 记者注意到,业绩说明会上,投资者提问主要围绕发展前景、发展规划、业绩预期、分红回购等方 面提问,其中省外进展成为两家白酒的投资者共同关注的问题。 全国化之外,年轻化也是投资者们高度关心的命题。 山西汾酒董秘许志峰表示,"汾酒年轻化"是随着产品性价比、市场营销、终端消费自然形成,从 2025年开始"汾酒年轻化"探索1.0版本,主体思路是"7个年轻化":颜值年轻化、产品表达年轻化、品质 表达年轻化、文化表达年轻化、传播形式年轻化、意见领袖年轻化、传播渠道年轻化,目标是共情、共 识、共享。 面对近年白酒行业趋势,山西汾酒副总经理、总会计师王怀表示,近年来白酒行业结构性分化加 剧,高端化、集中化趋势显著,汾酒将继续把握清香品类优势,通过全国化布局,实现稳健增长。 2024年,山西汾酒省外市场收入占比超过62%,省外收入增速也快于省 ...
被投资者质疑主动降速,古井贡酒:降速发展成为白酒行业共识
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-05-21 10:27
Core Viewpoint - The company has shifted from high-speed growth to structural growth in the white liquor industry, acknowledging challenges such as oversupply, inventory issues, and intense competition [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.22% [2] Growth Strategy - The company has not set a performance target for 2025, which is seen as a response to the current economic cycle and industry challenges [2] - The company continues to adhere to a "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on market construction and core provinces [2][3] Market Expansion - The company has achieved over 70% national coverage, with a provincial to external market ratio of 6:4 [3] - The company aims to enhance its market share in both provincial and external markets by leveraging its development experience [3] Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye in its home province of Anhui [3] - The company is committed to maintaining steady growth in Anhui while expanding into core external markets [3] Stock Performance - The company's stock price has declined from approximately 169 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to around 157 yuan currently, down from 210 yuan at the start of 2024 [4] - The company is implementing a market value management system to enhance investor returns and maintain investor interests [4]
山西汾酒称国际市场将成未来重要突破方向;古井贡酒全国化与次高端“双轮驱动”丨酒业早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-21 01:16
每经记者|刘明涛 每经编辑|肖芮冬 周庆伍指出,公司将继续坚持"全国化、次高端"战略不动摇,不断优化产品结构,持续深耕不同价位段 产品;继续坚持以古20为战略支点,抢占次高端消费群体;同时,进一步扩大古8、古5、献礼及老名酒 等大众产品的市场份额,满足消费者对不同价位白酒的需求。 朱家峰也表示,目前白酒消费者更加注重产品的品质及品牌,对白酒提出了更高的要求,同时白酒行业 竞争加剧,呈现向头部名酒品牌和区域强势品牌"双集中态势"。公司围绕"白酒+"战略,结合消费新模 式、新场景,依托体验消费场景,将品牌和文化深度融合,创造一种全新的消费体验;研发符合年轻消 费者喜好的创新产品,满足消费需求。 点评:公司重申"全国化+次高端"战略,延续过往路径。古20扛旗,古8、古5守市场的"金字塔结构"已 验证有效性,但在行业分化加剧、头部品牌挤压下,区域市场防御能力仍需加强。在产品创新方面,公 司年轻化产品需平衡传统工艺与创新需求,避免稀释品牌价值。 丨2025年5月21日星期三丨 NO.1 山西汾酒回应业绩增长趋势 5月20日,山西证监局、山西省上市公司协会等联合举办"山西辖区上市公司2025年投资者网上集体接待 日暨年报 ...
直击业绩说明会丨2025年不再提业绩增速目标,古井贡酒总经理周庆伍:降速发展成为行业共识
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-20 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The company has decided not to set specific growth targets for 2025, reflecting a broader industry consensus on slowing growth due to various macroeconomic factors and increased competition [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.517 billion yuan, growing by 20.22% compared to the previous year [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities was 4.727 billion yuan, marking a 5.15% increase year-on-year [2]. - The white liquor business revenue was 22.865 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.43% and a gross margin of 81.74% [2]. - The "Year Original Sauce" series saw significant growth, generating 18.086 billion yuan in revenue, up 17.31%, with a gross margin of 86.12% [2]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - The company continues to adhere to a "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on market construction and core provincial areas [6][7]. - The company has achieved a national coverage rate of over 70%, with a provincial to non-provincial sales ratio of 6:4 [7]. - The company aims to capture the mid-to-high-end market with its "Gu 20" product while also consolidating its offerings in the mass market [7]. Group 3: Industry Context - The white liquor industry is experiencing a transition from rapid growth to structural growth, influenced by high inventory levels, price inversions, and intense competition [6]. - The declining marriage rates, with a reported 20.5% drop in 2024, are impacting traditional consumption scenarios for liquor [7].
古井贡酒业绩说明会:“降速发展成行业共识”, 禁酒令下坚持“全国化、次高端”战略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 10:41
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit of 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.15% from the previous year [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 4.728 billion yuan, which is a 5.15% increase year-on-year [4]. - The total short-term and long-term borrowings amounted to approximately 91.6382 million yuan, with short-term borrowings at 5.0382 million yuan and long-term borrowings at 4.16 million yuan [6][7]. Market Strategy - The company maintains a nationalization and mid-to-high-end strategy, focusing on optimizing product structure and expanding market share in various price segments [3][11]. - The revenue structure is divided into 60% from the domestic market and 40% from the external market, with a national coverage rate exceeding 70% [5]. Challenges and Responses - The company acknowledges the challenges posed by the upgraded alcohol prohibition policies, reduced demand in the wedding market, and intensified regional competition [11]. - In response to market feedback regarding price increases and counterfeit products, the company has implemented unique packaging designs and anti-counterfeiting measures, along with a dedicated team for market order maintenance [10]. Future Outlook - The company has not set annual growth targets for the current year, indicating a strategic shift towards slower growth, which is becoming a consensus in the industry due to slowing population growth and intensified competition [11]. - Future profit growth will be driven by optimizing resource allocation and enhancing operational efficiency [11].