来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 尽管由于政府停摆导致数据收集工作延迟，政府就业数据在年底前可能仍不明朗，但投资者预计劳动 力市场趋势将逐步恢复正常，而非崩溃。然而，昨日公布的就业数据仍具有一定的滞后性，这应该可以 缓解投资者对劳动力市场状况迅速恶化的担忧，并增加美联储下月维持联邦基金利率不变的可能性。不 过，在12月10日美联储年内最后一次会议召开之前，政策仍存在一定程度的不确定性，这可能会使投资 者保持谨慎。当然，我们认为美联储对明年的展望和利率预测可能比12月的利率决议本身更为重要。 -美国经济当月新增就业岗位11.9万个，我们认为，就业增长分布较为均衡。虽然该报告仅反映了一个 月的改善数据，但我们认为这仍然令人鼓舞。值得注意的是，该报告的扩散指数（衡量新增就业岗位数 量与减少就业岗位数量之比）大幅跃升至55.6（8月份为49.0），这是自3月份的51.6以来首次超过盈亏 平衡点"50"，也是自2月份的56.2以来的最高水平。 -结论：美国消费者总体上保持谨慎，但并未出现消费回落，我们认为这可能预示着即将到来的假日购 物季将迎来利好消息。 -盈利更新：标普500指数成分股公司第三季度财报已发布约95% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading lower against the US Dollar, currently around 1.18, as the market digests mixed PMI data and focuses on the future policy direction of the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.2, matching expectations of 51.1, indicating the fastest expansion in the private sector in 16 months [1] - Service sector growth exceeded expectations, while the manufacturing sector returned to contraction, underperforming forecasts [1] - France's data was disappointing, whereas Germany outperformed market expectations [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The ECB has recently indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, highlighting ongoing inflation risks related to tariffs, services, food prices, and fiscal policies [1] - Market attention is shifting towards upcoming speeches from ECB and Federal Reserve officials for further guidance [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro to Dollar Bollinger Bands show a middle band at 1.1685, upper band at 1.1780, and lower band at 1.1591, with the current price at 1.1792 slightly above the upper band [2] - A further breakout could target the upper wave high of 1.1829 and the psychological level of 1.1900 [2] - The MACD indicates a positive but not overheated momentum, with DIFF at 0.0030, DEA at 0.0021, and a column at 0.0018, all above the zero axis [2]

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone PMI preliminary data shows mixed results, with manufacturing unexpectedly contracting while service sector activity accelerates, leading to a rebound in the euro against the dollar [1][3] Group 1: Eurozone PMI Data - Eurozone's September PMI preliminary data indicates a manufacturing PMI drop from 50.7 to 49.5, contrary to expectations of an increase to 50.9, while service PMI rose to 51.4, exceeding the forecast of 50.5 [3] - Germany's manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 to 48.5, below the expected rise to 50.0, while service PMI improved from 49.3 to 52.5, surpassing the anticipated 49.5 [3] - France's manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.4 to 48.1, the lowest in three months and significantly below the expected 50.2, with service PMI also declining from 49.8 to 48.9, missing the forecast of 49.6 [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The euro is attempting to recover above 1.1800 after rebounding from a low of 1.1785, supported by the mixed Eurozone data, but market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the US PMI data and Fed Chair Powell's speech [1][4] - The focus is on the upcoming US PMI preliminary data, with expectations for manufacturing PMI to drop from 53 to 52 and service PMI to decrease from 54.5 to 53.9 [3] - The dollar has weakened due to dovish comments from several Fed officials, with concerns about the current monetary policy being too tight [3][4]