格隆汇12月16日｜美国10月零售销售基本持平，汽车经销商销售额下降和汽油收入疲软抵消了其他品类 支出的增长。美国商务部报告显示，未经通胀调整的零售销售总额与上月基本持平，9月数据修正后为 增长0.1%。若剔除汽车经销商和加油站，销售额增长0.5%。在13个零售品类中，有8个品类实现增长， 其中百货商店和线上零售商的销售表现尤为强劲。汽车销售额下降1.6%，部分原因是联邦政府对电动 汽车的税收优惠政策到期。汽油价格下跌则抑制了加油站的销售额。控制组的销售额在10月增长 0.8%，为四个月来最大增幅。该指标不包括食品服务、汽车经销商、建材商店和加油站。数据显示， 在假日购物季初期，消费者支出有所升温。尽管许多消费者对就业状况感到担忧，并对高生活成本感到 不满，但他们仍在寻找优惠商品。近期消费增长主要来自较富裕家庭，而预算紧张的较低收入美国人仍 保持谨慎态度。 ...

美国10月份零售销售基本持平，因为汽车经销商销售下滑和汽油销售疲弱，抵消了其他类别的销售走 强。 根据美国商务部公布的因政府关门而延迟的数据，在未经通胀调整的基础上，10月份零售销售额基本持 平，9月数据修正后为增长0.1%。若剔除汽车经销商和加油站，10月份零售额增长0.5%。 | 指标 | 实际 | 预期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 零售额（环比） | +0.0% | +0.1% | | 除汽车、汽油外的销售额（环比） | +0.5% | +0.4% | | "控制组"销售额（环比） | +0.8% | +0.4% | 10月份的零售报告原定于11月14日公布，但因政府关门被推迟。 责任编辑：丁文武 在13个零售类别中，有8个录得增长，其中百货店和线上零售商录得可观增幅。汽车销售下降1.6%，部 分受联邦电动车税收优惠到期的拖累。汽油价格下降则压低了加油站销售收入。 所谓的"控制组销售"——这一指标会被纳入政府对国内生产总值中商品支出的计算——10月份增长 0.8%，为四个月来最大增幅。该指标剔除了食品服务、汽车经销商、建材商店和加油站。 这些数据表明，在假日购物季的最初几周，消费者支 ...

今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于57.80一线上方，今日开盘于58.31美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报57.93美元/盎司，下跌0.59%，最高触及58.61美元/盎司，最低下探57.52美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 点阵图方面，三个月前中位数预计2025年降息两次，2026-2027年各一次。若本次降息后2026-2027年预 期减少，可能被视为鹰派信号；反之，若预期持平或增加，且长期点阵图下移，则为鸽派，施压美元。 本周美联储利率决议备受瞩目，FOMC预计将指标隔夜利率区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银中长期看涨不变，短期继续看冲高下跌为主。每次靠近新高或刷新新高都是回落的机会，下方 重点支撑54-55。市场等待价格回落至50天均线下方时再考虑相关操作机会，而50美元水平恰好处于50 天均线下方区域，这一价位或值得关注。 【要闻速递】 美国财政部长Scott Bessent(贝森特)表示，今年迎来"非常强劲"的假日购物季，预测全年实际GDP增长 3%。 数据显示，前三个月经济同比收缩0.6%，第二季度增长3.8 ...

上周，黄金市场呈现出高位区间盘整的态势。周初，行情以4220.7开盘，随后先扬后抑。日线级别上， 金价一度攀升至4265.1的高点，但随后遭遇强势震荡回落。周内最低点触及4162，之后再次陷入区间波 动。最终，周线收盘于4196.3，以一根上影线稍长于下影线的纺锤形态结束。 美国财长斯科特.贝森特上周日表示，今年假日购物季至今表现"非常强劲"，并预计美国经济将以坚实 基础收官。他指出，经济实际表现超出预期，已连续两个季度实现4%的GDP增长；即便遭遇舒默引发 的政府停摆，全年仍有望以3%的实际GDP增速收尾。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4191美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4200.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.10%，最高上探至4211.27美元/盎司，最低触及4195.31美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4191美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报4200.89 美元/盎司，涨幅0.10%，最高上探至4211.27美元/盎司，最低触及4195.31美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄 金短线偏 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while online consumer spending during "Cyber Monday" is projected to reach approximately $14 billion, there remains uncertainty regarding the overall performance of the holiday shopping season for retailers [1][5] - According to Adobe Analytics, online consumer spending in the U.S. from midnight to 6:30 PM on December 1 exceeded $9.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The total online spending for the day is expected to be between $13.9 billion and $14.2 billion [3] - Over the five-day period from November 27 to December 1, total online spending is estimated to reach around $43.7 billion, although the growth rate of online spending during the holiday shopping season has been slowing over the past decade [3] Group 2 - Despite the anticipated sales data for "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday," there is still uncertainty about the overall performance of the holiday shopping season, as these two days rarely determine the final outcome of the season [5] - Data from Salesforce indicates that U.S. consumer spending on "Black Friday" increased by 3% compared to last year, which is lower than the global increase of 6% for the same day. Factors such as a cooling job market and persistent high inflation are significantly impacting consumer confidence [7] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level since April this year, indicating a challenging environment for retailers as the holiday season approaches [7]

当地时间11月30日，随着美国假日购物季的到来，纽约各大百货商场的节日橱窗成为街头一景。 图为第五大道百货公司的节日橱窗吸引路人目光。中新社记者 廖攀 摄 中新社记者 廖攀 摄 当地时间11月30日，美国纽约第五大道上购物的人群熙熙攘攘。"黑色星期五"之后的周末各大商家 继续促销，纽约商业区的民众购物热度不减。 中新社记者 廖攀 摄 图为第五大道百货公司的节日橱窗吸引路人目光。中新社记者 廖攀 摄 中新社记者 廖攀 摄 当地时间11月30日，纽约洛克菲勒中心点亮节日灯光秀。 当地时间11月30日，民众在纽约洛克菲勒中心观赏第五大道百货灯光秀。 ...

Core Insights - Online sales in the U.S. on Black Friday reached $8.6 billion, a 9.4% increase from last year, driven by consumers preferring online shopping over in-store purchases [1] - Adobe Analytics predicts that total online sales for Black Friday will reach between $11.7 billion and $11.9 billion, setting a new record [1] - The holiday shopping season is expected to be more cautious due to economic concerns, with overall consumer spending projected to remain flat compared to last year [2] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are facing economic challenges such as a cooling job market, stagnant wage growth, and persistent inflation, leading to a more cautious approach to spending [2] - Despite the economic headwinds, the overall consumer spending remains relatively stable, with high-income groups continuing to spend [3] - A significant portion of consumers plans to use Black Friday promotions to stock up on essential items rather than indulging in luxury purchases [3] Group 2: Retail Trends - The National Retail Federation forecasts a slight slowdown in holiday sales growth to 3.7%-4.2%, with total sales expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time [5] - Retailers are competing for increasingly price-sensitive consumers, with many shoppers expressing concerns about rising prices due to tariffs [4] - The trend of consumers starting their holiday shopping earlier through promotions and online events has diminished the traditional significance of Black Friday [4]

Core Insights - Gap Inc's stock surged by 8.8% to $25.05 following better-than-expected third-quarter results and an increased full-year forecast [1] - The retailer experienced a surprising sales increase attributed to a viral denim advertisement featuring the girl group Katseye, with CEO Richard Dickson highlighting a strong start to the holiday shopping season [1] Stock Performance - The stock has entered positive territory for 2025, although it faces resistance at the $25 level, which is limiting further gains [2] - Gap Inc's stock has surpassed all significant moving averages from the 20-day to the 320-day trendlines, with recent support identified at the 60-day moving average [2] Options Activity - Options trading has seen significant activity, with 37,000 calls and 13,000 puts exchanged, which is four times the usual volume for this time [3] - The November 25 call option is the most popular, indicating new positions being opened [3] - Short interest in Gap Inc represents 9.8% of the stock's available float, suggesting that it would take over two days for short positions to cover at the current trading pace [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite delays in data collection due to government shutdowns, the labor market trends are expected to gradually normalize rather than collapse, which may alleviate investor concerns about a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in the month, with a balanced distribution of job growth, and the diffusion index significantly rose to 55.6, marking the first time it exceeded the breakeven point of 50 since March [1] - Overall, U.S. consumers remain cautious but have not shown signs of a consumption decline, suggesting positive news for the upcoming holiday shopping season [1] Group 2 - Approximately 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, with a year-over-year EPS growth of 13.4% and revenue growth of 8.4% [2] - European stock markets declined, with the Eurozone's November PMI preliminary data highlighting uneven economic momentum, as manufacturing fell into contraction while services remained in expansion [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets experienced significant declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) dropping 2.6%, marking the largest weekly decline since April, driven by weak performance in technology stocks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite inflation concerns, U.S. holiday shopping spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion in November and December, showing growth compared to last year [1][2] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that last year's holiday sales reached $976 billion, a 4.3% increase year-over-year, with this year's expected spending projected between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, reflecting a growth of 3.7% to 4.2% [1][2] - NRF's CEO Matthew Shay noted that consumer behavior is surprisingly positive, although consumers are becoming more selective and focused on discounts [1][2] Group 2 - Holiday spending accounts for 19% of total U.S. retail sales, with some retailers relying even more heavily on this period [2] - Various institutions have made predictions regarding retail growth, with Mastercard forecasting a 3.6% increase in retail sales during the holiday season, slightly lower than last year's 4.1% [2] - Deloitte predicts a year-over-year growth of 2.9% to 3.4% for holiday retail sales, while Adobe anticipates online sales to reach $253.4 billion, a 5.3% increase, but lower than last year's 8.7% [2] Group 3 - The timing of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as detrimental, leading to a decline in private sector income and weakening consumer demand [3] - Bank of America warns that tariffs are diminishing U.S. consumer purchasing power, estimating that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the tariff costs, which are expected to continue rising [3]