Gap Inc (NYSE:GAP) stock is surging today, up 8.8% at $25.05 at last check, after the company posted better-than-expected third-quarter results and lifted its full-year forecast. The retailer saw a surprise sales surge after its viral denim ad with girl group Katseye, and CEO Richard Dickson touted a "great start" to the holiday shopping season. On the charts, today's pop has GAP breaking into positive territory for 2025, though familiar resistance at the $25 level appears to be keeping a cap on gains. The ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 尽管由于政府停摆导致数据收集工作延迟，政府就业数据在年底前可能仍不明朗，但投资者预计劳动 力市场趋势将逐步恢复正常，而非崩溃。然而，昨日公布的就业数据仍具有一定的滞后性，这应该可以 缓解投资者对劳动力市场状况迅速恶化的担忧，并增加美联储下月维持联邦基金利率不变的可能性。不 过，在12月10日美联储年内最后一次会议召开之前，政策仍存在一定程度的不确定性，这可能会使投资 者保持谨慎。当然，我们认为美联储对明年的展望和利率预测可能比12月的利率决议本身更为重要。 -美国经济当月新增就业岗位11.9万个，我们认为，就业增长分布较为均衡。虽然该报告仅反映了一个 月的改善数据，但我们认为这仍然令人鼓舞。值得注意的是，该报告的扩散指数（衡量新增就业岗位数 量与减少就业岗位数量之比）大幅跃升至55.6（8月份为49.0），这是自3月份的51.6以来首次超过盈亏 平衡点"50"，也是自2月份的56.2以来的最高水平。 -结论：美国消费者总体上保持谨慎，但并未出现消费回落，我们认为这可能预示着即将到来的假日购 物季将迎来利好消息。 -盈利更新：标普500指数成分股公司第三季度财报已发布约95% ...

该组织表示，零售商在去年假日季的销售额达到9760亿美元，同比增长4.3%。而今年假日季预计消费 者总支出在1.01万亿至1.02万亿美元之间，较去年增长3.7%至4.2%。 多家机构预测零售增长 据美国零售联合会称，假日消费占美国零售业全年销售额的19%，对某些零售商而言，这一比例还要高 得多。此外，美国的消费者支出数据备受关注，因为其约占该国国内生产总值的70%。 尽管美国消费者深陷通胀担忧，但美国全国零售联合会周四发布的2025年预测显示，美国在11月和12月 的假日购物季支出有望突破万亿美元，高于去年。 美国零售联合会是全球最大的零售行业协会，成员包括百货商店、在线平台、独立零售商、餐馆等，拥 有超过380万家零售店，协会成员覆盖超过5200万名员工。 美国零售联合会总裁兼首席执行官Matthew Shay周四表示，消费者表现出非常积极的行为和参与度，这 有些出乎意料。但越来越多的消费者变得更加挑剔，他们十分关心折扣。 Shay还强调，虽然假日季支出再次增长，但增速可能放缓。不过，其预测的数字仍高于2010年至2018年 期间的3.6%年均增幅。 在疫情期间，美国假日季消费大幅增长，2020年假日季销 ...

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be overshadowed by rising prices, trade tensions, and issues related to food assistance and healthcare, leading to significantly higher consumer costs compared to last year [1] Food Prices - The average cost of preparing a holiday meal for 12 people is projected to reach $362.80, a 5% increase from last year's $344.61 [2] - The average price of Thanksgiving turkey is expected to hit $2.05 per pound, resulting in a cost of approximately $31 for a 15-pound turkey, which is a 25% increase from the previous year [2] - Prices for roasted beef and steak have risen by 18.4% and 16.6% year-over-year, respectively [2] - Candy prices have increased by 8% to 10% due to a record shortage of cocoa beans, with tariffs on cocoa-producing countries further driving up chocolate prices [3] - Since January 2020, food prices in the U.S. have risen by approximately 26% [3] Holiday Decorations - Prices for holiday decorations are expected to rise by about 15% due to supply chain bottlenecks and tariff policies [4] - The National Tree Company has raised its product prices by 10%, attributing $6 to $7 million in additional costs to tariffs [4] - Consumers are expected to bear a significant portion of the increased costs, with estimates suggesting an additional $40 billion in holiday shopping costs due to new tariffs [4] Retail Sector Concerns - The ongoing decline in box sales has raised concerns about the performance of U.S. retailers during the holiday shopping season [5] - The third quarter saw the lowest shipment volume of corrugated boxes since 2015, with a year-over-year decline of 8.7% reported by Smurfit Kappa [6] - The weak demand for boxes, which are crucial for product transportation and display, indicates that retailers are adopting a more conservative approach to inventory and sales expectations for the holiday season [6]