其实吧，德国偷偷买气我也能理解。眼瞅着冬天要来了，前两年靠暖冬撑过去了，今年要是冷起来，那 点天然气库存哪够？再说找替代的液化天然气，还得跟亚洲抢，美国又趁火打劫坐地起价，算来算去都 不划算。换作是我，估计也得冒着被骂的风险，偷偷找俄罗斯买气，总不能让老百姓冬天冻着、工厂全 停了吧？ 昨儿刷新闻刷到欧盟那档子事，我真是差点笑出声 —— 这边刚开了会说要把对俄能源禁运提前到 2026 年底，摆出一副 "硬气到底" 的架势，那边德国就被扒出来偷偷买俄罗斯天然气！这波操作，脸打得那 叫一个响，简直没眼看啊。 说真的，欧盟这制裁从一开始我就觉得悬。你想啊，俄乌冲突刚爆发那阵儿，欧洲近一半的天然气都得 从俄罗斯拿，德国更是俄气的 "铁杆客户"，家里取暖、工厂开工，哪样离得开？后来北溪管道被炸， 北溪 - 1 又找了个 "技术原因" 停了，我当时还琢磨：这下总该彻底断了念想了吧？结果呢？人家德国早 暗地里把渠道接好了，该买还是买。你说这事儿逗不逗？一边跟着美国喊 "禁运" 喊得比谁都凶，一边 背地里偷偷补货，合着就演给外人看呢？ 更绝的是欧盟内部那吵得鸡飞狗跳的样子。匈牙利总理欧尔班直接拍桌子骂，说这制裁就是 "瞎搞"， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in oil prices have been observed, with a significant increase in diesel profits since June, leading to the highest comprehensive profits for European and American refineries this year [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global supply is increasing as OPEC enters a production increase phase and non-OPEC production gradually ramps up, leading to a stockpiling cycle [1] - The near-term European diesel market remains tight due to various factors, with refinery operating rates expected to be revised upwards for Q3 [1] - Diesel consumption in Europe has seen a decline of 80,000 barrels per day (1.7%) in April, while non-road diesel demand has increased by 160,000 barrels per day (15.7%) [10] Refinery Closures and Capacity - In 2023, European and American refineries are facing closures totaling 800,000 barrels per day, with several refineries already shut down or planned for closure [10] - A power outage in the Iberian Peninsula led to the forced shutdown of over 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity [10] Import Trends - As of the third week of July, European diesel imports remain 500,000 barrels per day lower than the same period last year, primarily due to low loading volumes from the Middle East [11] - The EU's new sanctions against Russia will impact approximately 300,000 barrels per day of diesel imports, tightening supply further [12] Market Outlook - The current low inventory levels and unreturned imports suggest a favorable medium-term outlook for European diesel, although short-term uncertainties remain [13] - The overall oil market is expected to remain in a fluctuating state, with refinery operating expectations revised upwards due to high diesel profits, despite an overall surplus in crude oil [14]