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永安期货集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the European line shipping market, including the supply - demand situation, freight quotes, and relevant shipping indices. In August, the European line supply pressure is increasing, and freight quotes are showing a downward trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 0.07, a volume of 3579, and an open interest change of - 121 [24]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1420.4, a volume of 877.5, and an open interest change of - 765 [24]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1763.2, a volume of 534.7, and an open interest change of - 0.26% [24]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1505.4, a volume of 792.5, and an open interest change of 28 [24]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1346.8, a volume of 951.1, and an open interest change of - 69 [24]. - EC2606 had a closing price of - 0.77, a volume of 809.9, and an open interest change of - 11 [24]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - SCFIS (European line) on 2025/8/4 was 2297.86 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a two - week decrease of 3.50% [24]. - SCFI (European line) on 2025/8/1 was 2051 JT/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.87% and a week - on - two - week increase of 0.53% [24]. - CCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1803.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a two - week decrease of 3.53% [24]. - NCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1440.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.20% [24]. 3.3 European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes - In week 32 of August, the European line had good cargo collection but almost no cargo rejection. In week 33, the cargo collection of different alliances varied. MSK was better, OA was average, and PA was poor. MSK's freight dropped by $100, and OA and PA's shipping companies gradually cut prices by about $200 [24]. - Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European line is very high. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's capacity is revised down to 330,000 TEU due to the cancellation of EMC's independent - operation ship. The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [24]. - For week 33, the European line quote dropped to $2800 - $3200, with an average of $3000 (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures market). For week 34, the current average quote is $2900, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 booking at $2600, a week - on - week drop of $200, and then the price rose to $2640. CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices to $2920 and $3000 respectively, and HMM cut its price to $2700 [24]. 3.4 Other Information - On 8/6, the Israeli Prime Minister announced plans to implement military control over the entire Gaza Strip, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [24]. - The release of the XSI - CJ index is postponed by three working days [24].
欧线航数脉搏
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 09:42
1. Report Core View - W30's average loading rate of the European route fleet departing from China was 90.8%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The loading rate of the European route fleet departing from Asia in W28 was 98.8%, a slight 0.5% increase [7]. - The monthly average weekly capacity in August was 315,000 TEU, higher than the July average of 302,000 TEU. The average capacity in the first half - month was 299,000 TEU, and 331,000 TEU in the second half - month. The monthly average weekly capacity in September was 308,000 TEU, higher than the previous statistical value [11]. - There were 5 late - departing sailings from W30 to W31, including 2 from OA and 3 from MSC. The risk of delays in subsequent weeks remains high, but the delay forecast is expected to improve starting from W34 [18]. - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 2316.56 points, a 3.5% decline from the previous period. The peak price of this peak season has basically been confirmed [19]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W30's average loading rate of the European route fleet departing from China was 90.8%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period (last period: 92.7%). W28's loading rate of the European route fleet departing from Asia was 98.8%, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.1%, higher than the average level from April to May. The increase in transit demand led to an expansion of the loading rate difference [7]. - OA's loading rate departing from China was 91.5%, with a relatively large decline from the previous period. PA and MSC's loading rate departing from China was 93.7%, showing a decline but still at a high level. Gemini's loading rate departing from China was 87.6%, a slight 0.6% increase [7]. 2.2 European Route Sailing Schedule and Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity in August was 315,000 TEU, higher than the July average of 302,000 TEU. The average capacity in the first half - month was 299,000 TEU, and 331,000 TEU in the second half - month. The capacities in W32 and W34 were as high as 329,000 and 358,000 TEU respectively. The monthly average weekly capacity in September was 308,000 TEU, higher than the previous statistical value [11]. - The FAL7 route added 4 sailings in September, all with a ship type of about 13,000 - 14,000 TEU. For the LION route from September to early October, 4 sailings of the originally planned 12,000 - 17,000 TEU ship type were replaced with over - 17,000 TEU ultra - large ships transferred from other routes [11]. - MSC's ALBATROS route cancelled its Shanghai call starting from W28, and the BRITANNIA route cancelled its Ningbo call and added a call at the last port of the SWAN route, Antwerp. The sailing delay is expected to improve significantly after October [11]. 2.3 Sailing Delay and Spot Market Overview - There were 5 late - departing sailings from W30 to W31, including 2 from OA and 3 from MSC. The risk of delays in subsequent weeks remains high, but the delay forecast is expected to improve starting from W34 [18]. - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 2316.56 points, a 3.5% decline from the previous period. The peak price of this peak season has basically been confirmed [19]. - The actual departing capacity of the European route from Shanghai Port in W30 was 263,000 TEU, of which 41% were delayed sailings from W29. By alliance, the weights of Gemini, OA, and PA + MSC were 16%, 44%, and 40% respectively. Gemini's proportion remained low, while the weights of PA and MSC increased [19]. 2.4 Sailing Delay Observation and Early Warning - In W30, OA had 2 late - departing ships, and MSC had 3. The risk of late - departing ships from W31 - W33 remains high, and the delay forecast is expected to improve starting from W34 [18]. - Warnings are issued for specific routes of different alliances in different weeks, such as OA's AE1 and AE3, Gemini's FAL3, CES, and NE3, and MSC&PA's FE4, FE6, and BRITANNIA [26][28]. 2.5 Related Port Congestion Data - In China, the average turnover time of Yangshan Port is about 1.8 days, Ningbo Port about 1.7 days, and Yantian Port about 1.6 days. Due to the overlap of the typhoon season and the export peak season, domestic port operations are under continuous pressure [34]. - In Southeast Asia, the congestion at Port Klang has improved compared to the previous period but remains at a high level. With the increase in transit demand, port congestion in Southeast Asia may continue. The average time of ships in port at Singapore Port is 1.4 days, and at Port Klang is 1.6 days [34]. - In Europe, problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages at ports, German railway construction, and low water levels in the Rhine are expected to gradually emerge in the next two months. European ports will continue to face the pressure of increasing congestion. Currently, the overall congestion level is lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the development trends of congestion at German ports and Rotterdam Port [34].