SCFI指数

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集运早报-20250926
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:12
集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਿੱਚ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持仓变动 -5414 | | | EC2510 | | 1173.0 | 5.26 | 267.2 | 38888 | | 35526 | | | | EC2512 | | 1783.1 | 5.10 | -342.9 | 23493 | | 22995 | BB9 | | | EC2602 | | 1696.2 | 6.81 | -256.0 | | 5485 | 8709 | 666 | | | EC2604 | | 1285.1 | 1.91 | 155.1 | | 1964 | 8957 | 26 | | 期間 | EC2606 | | 1482.3 | 2.56 | -42.1 | | 212 | 952 | -3 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前内日 | 前三日 | 日环比 ...
高频数据跟踪:焦煤螺纹钢价格上涨,SCFI指数加速下行
China Post Securities· 2025-09-22 04:29
近期研究报告 《中长久期中高评级城投债流动性下 降——流动性打分周报 20250917》 - 2025.09.17 固收周报 焦煤螺纹钢价格上涨,SCFI 指数加速下行 ——高频数据跟踪 20250921 核心观点 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-09-22 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 高频经济数据关注点:第一,生产端相对平稳,焦炉、沥青开工 率下降,高炉、PX、轮胎小幅升高,螺纹钢产量持续下降。第二,房 地产市场边际改善,商品房成交面积小幅回升。第三,物价走势分化, 国际定价的原油、铜价格小幅下跌,国内定价的焦煤、螺纹钢上涨; 农产品价格回落,鸡蛋价格节前持续上涨。第四,居民出行升温,地 铁客运量、国内国际航班量均增加,一线城市高峰拥堵指数持续上行。 第五,国内外航运指数走势分化,BDI 指数持续回升,国内 SCFI 指数 加速下行。短期重点关注反内卷及增量政策落地、房地产市场恢 ...
集运早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:19
電运手机 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 雑 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1105.9 | -0.34 | -1105.9 | 19585 | | 47173 | -2436 | | | EC2512 | | 1645.3 | -1.60 | -1645.3 | 9304 | | 20570 | 183 | | | EC2602 | | 1566.1 | -0.80 | -1566.1 | 1549 | | 7215 | 110 | | | EC2604 | | 1255.2 | -2.52 | -1255.2 | 1289 | | 8534 | 200 | | | EC2606 | | 1453.5 | -1.03 | -1453.5 | | 68 | વેરૂર | 12 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 ...
高频|一线城市二手房回暖,猪肉价格小幅上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 23:35
Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]
集运指数(欧线):震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:27
2025 年 9 月 11 日 集运指数(欧线):震荡市 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,267.4 | -0.42% | 15,226 | 47,320 | 114 | 0.32 | 0.48 | | | EC2512 | 1,674.0 | -0.02% | 8,134 | 17,608 | 729 | 0.46 | 0.56 | | | EC2602 | 1,524.0 | 0.14% | 895 | 5,942 | 2 3 | 0.15 | 0.30 | | | EC2510 - EC2512 | -406.6 | | | EC2512 - E ...
集运指数(欧线):震荡走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 03:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1st, the shipping market was affected by news that the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump's tariff increase illegal, and there was concentrated short - position reduction after the opening. The freight rate index SCFIS closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The overall market loading rate remains above the warning line, and shipping companies' profit margins are still considerable at the current FAK level, so they have no intention to increase the number of blank sailings. The freight rate center in the second week of September has dropped to around $2000 - 2100/FEU, and there may be a further reduction of $300 - 400/FEU in late September. The freight rate trend in October depends on the blank - sailing intensity [10]. - Subjectively, it is believed that the probability of the freight rate in October falling below the low of $1700/FEU in May is high, and the valuation of the 2510 contract may be below 1247.05 points. If the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of $1300 - 1600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of sailings, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [10]. - In terms of strategies, pay attention to the long - spread opportunities between the 12 - 04 and 02 - 04 contracts, and consider lightly going long on the 2512 contract around 1500 points [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The container shipping index (European routes) showed strong performance yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1291.4 points, up 1.53%, with a reduction of 989 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1650.9 points, up 5.01%, with a reduction of 828 lots [8]. 2. Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS index closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, lower than expected, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, a decrease of 2.6%; the SCFI for the European route was $1481/TEU, a decrease of 11.2%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923/FEU, an increase of 17.0% [1]. 3. European Basic Port Freight Rates - In the second week of September, the freight rates for European basic ports remained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with an average FAK of about $2080/FEU, and the freight rate center for container volume/SPOT decreased by $100/FEU [9]. 4. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reached 298,000 TEU/week, a 6% decrease from August, significantly lower than the 14% decrease during the same period in 2024. In October, the number of pending voyages remained at 5, and there were 6 blank sailings. Without considering pending voyages, the average weekly capacity was 287,000 TEU/week [9]. - The overall market loading rate in late August was around 95%. Shipping companies generally relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and special offers for large - volume shipments, which intensified price competition, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue until the end of September [9]. 5. Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of European routes stopped falling on September 10th. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the market gave back the "strike" premium on the first trading day after the holiday. Shipping companies successively announced price increases in November and December, with the peak freight rate occurring in the first week of December [11].
高频:北京楼市边际回暖,出行动能回升
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-16 13:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week's main concerns include a significant rebound in Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales due to the new property market policies, a slight decline in rebar and cement prices as anti - involution cools down, stronger travel momentum during the summer with subway rides and domestic flights outperforming seasonality, and a sharp increase in vegetable prices due to extreme weather [2]. - New home sales continued to weaken this week, while second - hand home sales rebounded. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were significantly weaker than the same period last year, while second - hand home sales areas in key cities increased month - on - month and were stronger than last year. Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales showed a significant rebound [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. Rebar prices decreased slightly, glass futures prices rose significantly, cement price index decreased slightly, and asphalt prices decreased slightly [2]. - In industrial production, the performance of operating rates was divided. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [2]. - In terms of consumption, travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, and oil prices decreased [2]. - In terms of exports, SCFI and BDI declined this week, and the market supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, with the shipping market continuing to adjust [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales - New home sales in first - and second - tier cities weakened. From August 8th to August 14th, new home transactions showed a mixed performance month - on - month and a significant decline year - on - year. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were much weaker than last year, while those in third - tier cities were much stronger than the previous period and last year. Wind's 20 - city transaction area increased 2.83% month - on - month and decreased 12.96% year - on - year [7]. - Second - hand home sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In key cities, the transaction areas increased month - on - month and were higher than the same period last year, with Hangzhou showing a significant 15% increase [27]. 2. Investment - Most commodity prices declined. Cement, asphalt, and rebar prices decreased slightly, while glass futures prices increased significantly [37]. 3. Production - Operating rates showed a divided performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [43]. 4. Consumption - Travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [52]. 5. Exports - SCFI index declined, and BDI index and CRB spot index decreased slightly [58]. 6. Prices - Pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, oil prices decreased slightly, and rebar prices decreased slightly [64].
集运早报-20250814
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of fundamentals, in the second week of August (week33), MSK performed well, OA was average, and PA was poor; cargo volume in week34 significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35 this week, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. The capacity reduction situation was not ideal, with a slight decline but still at a high level. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after including all TRN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [1] - From the perspective of the futures market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract is a peak - season contract with certain flexibility, and continuous position - shifting and contract - changing support it. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price is 2083.0, with a change of 0.05%, a basis of 152.5, a trading volume of 329, an open interest of 2629, and a change in open interest of - 227 [1] - For EC2510, the closing price is 1333.1, with a change of - 5.96%, a basis of 902.4, a trading volume of 66391, an open interest of 60740, and a change in open interest of 4786 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1700.1, with a change of - 2.41%, a basis of 535.4, a trading volume of 8332, an open interest of 11515, and a change in open interest of 103 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1488.0, with a change of - 2.62%, a basis of 747.5, a trading volume of 1870, an open interest of 4459, and a change in open interest of 270 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1328.6, with a change of - 1.59%, a basis of 906.9, a trading volume of 1257, an open interest of 5551, and a change in open interest of 125 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1473.0, with a change of - 0.61%, a basis of 762.5, a trading volume of 126, an open interest of 828, and a change in open interest of 61 [1] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 749.9, with a day - on - day change of 85.5 and a week - on - week change of 97.6 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 367.0, with a day - on - day change of - 42.6 and a week - on - week change of - 24.2 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 212.1, with a day - on - day change of - 1.9 and a week - on - week change of - 4.5 [1] Shipping Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48 points, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a year - on - year change of - 4.39% [1] - The European Line freight rate on August 8, 2025, is 1961 US dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 1.87% [1] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1799.05 points, with a month - on - month change of 0.53% and a year - on - year change of 0.13% [1] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1257.71 points, with a month - on - month change of - 8.37% and a year - on - year change of - 3.3% [1] Recent European Line Quotation Information - In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA Alliance is 2700 US dollars, MSK is 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance is 2900 - 3000 US dollars [2] - In week35, the average shipping company's quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points). On Monday, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars; HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars; on Wednesday, EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars [2] Related News - On August 12, the Israeli military stated that its operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage" [3] - On August 13, China emphasized maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [3]
集运早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current major contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. The fundamental situation shows that in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK showing better results, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly declined. This week, EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. Although the shipping capacity decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, it is 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the market to decline further. The December contract is a peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions provides some support. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 EC Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 12, 2025, for EC2508, the price was 2080.0 with a 0.43% increase; EC2510 was 1408.8 with a 1.89% decrease; EC2512 was 1750.0 with a 0.57% decrease; EC2602 had an 0.87% decrease; EC2604 was 1344.9 with a 0.60% decrease; EC2606 was 1497.1 with a 0.44% increase. The corresponding trading volumes were 242, 44961, 5774, 1471, 822, and 136 respectively, and the open interests were 3330, 26688, 10238, 4202, 5295, and 770 respectively, with changes of - 102, 86, - 3867, - 108, - 108, and - 30 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a daily increase of 36.2 and a weekly decrease of 4.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a daily decrease of 17.2 and a weekly decrease of 63.7. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9 [2]. 3.2 Shipping Index Information - **SCEIS Index**: Updated every Monday, as of August 11, 2025, the index was 2235.48, a 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a 0.81% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **SCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1961, a 4.39% decrease from the previous period and a 1.87% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **CCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1799.05, a 0.53% increase from the previous period and a 0.13% increase from the period before the previous one [2]. - **NCFI Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1257.71, an 8.37% decrease from the previous period and a 3.53% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quotation in week33 was about $3150 (equivalent to around 2200 points on the futures market). In week34, shipping companies' quotations dropped by $200 - 300, with an average of $2850 (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance quoted $2700, MSK quoted $2600, and the OA alliance quoted $2900 - 3000. For week35, MSK opened bookings at $2200 [2]. 3.4 Relevant News - On August 12, China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for another 90 days. The US will continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. China will also continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on US goods and take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [2]. - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City." On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new cease - fire plan for Gaza, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the cease - fire negotiations [2].
永安期货集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the European line shipping market, including the supply - demand situation, freight quotes, and relevant shipping indices. In August, the European line supply pressure is increasing, and freight quotes are showing a downward trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 0.07, a volume of 3579, and an open interest change of - 121 [24]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1420.4, a volume of 877.5, and an open interest change of - 765 [24]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1763.2, a volume of 534.7, and an open interest change of - 0.26% [24]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1505.4, a volume of 792.5, and an open interest change of 28 [24]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1346.8, a volume of 951.1, and an open interest change of - 69 [24]. - EC2606 had a closing price of - 0.77, a volume of 809.9, and an open interest change of - 11 [24]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - SCFIS (European line) on 2025/8/4 was 2297.86 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a two - week decrease of 3.50% [24]. - SCFI (European line) on 2025/8/1 was 2051 JT/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.87% and a week - on - two - week increase of 0.53% [24]. - CCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1803.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a two - week decrease of 3.53% [24]. - NCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1440.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.20% [24]. 3.3 European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes - In week 32 of August, the European line had good cargo collection but almost no cargo rejection. In week 33, the cargo collection of different alliances varied. MSK was better, OA was average, and PA was poor. MSK's freight dropped by $100, and OA and PA's shipping companies gradually cut prices by about $200 [24]. - Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European line is very high. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's capacity is revised down to 330,000 TEU due to the cancellation of EMC's independent - operation ship. The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [24]. - For week 33, the European line quote dropped to $2800 - $3200, with an average of $3000 (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures market). For week 34, the current average quote is $2900, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 booking at $2600, a week - on - week drop of $200, and then the price rose to $2640. CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices to $2920 and $3000 respectively, and HMM cut its price to $2700 [24]. 3.4 Other Information - On 8/6, the Israeli Prime Minister announced plans to implement military control over the entire Gaza Strip, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [24]. - The release of the XSI - CJ index is postponed by three working days [24].