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高频:北京楼市边际回暖,出行动能回升
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-16 13:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week's main concerns include a significant rebound in Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales due to the new property market policies, a slight decline in rebar and cement prices as anti - involution cools down, stronger travel momentum during the summer with subway rides and domestic flights outperforming seasonality, and a sharp increase in vegetable prices due to extreme weather [2]. - New home sales continued to weaken this week, while second - hand home sales rebounded. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were significantly weaker than the same period last year, while second - hand home sales areas in key cities increased month - on - month and were stronger than last year. Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales showed a significant rebound [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. Rebar prices decreased slightly, glass futures prices rose significantly, cement price index decreased slightly, and asphalt prices decreased slightly [2]. - In industrial production, the performance of operating rates was divided. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [2]. - In terms of consumption, travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, and oil prices decreased [2]. - In terms of exports, SCFI and BDI declined this week, and the market supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, with the shipping market continuing to adjust [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales - New home sales in first - and second - tier cities weakened. From August 8th to August 14th, new home transactions showed a mixed performance month - on - month and a significant decline year - on - year. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were much weaker than last year, while those in third - tier cities were much stronger than the previous period and last year. Wind's 20 - city transaction area increased 2.83% month - on - month and decreased 12.96% year - on - year [7]. - Second - hand home sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In key cities, the transaction areas increased month - on - month and were higher than the same period last year, with Hangzhou showing a significant 15% increase [27]. 2. Investment - Most commodity prices declined. Cement, asphalt, and rebar prices decreased slightly, while glass futures prices increased significantly [37]. 3. Production - Operating rates showed a divided performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [43]. 4. Consumption - Travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [52]. 5. Exports - SCFI index declined, and BDI index and CRB spot index decreased slightly [58]. 6. Prices - Pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, oil prices decreased slightly, and rebar prices decreased slightly [64].
集运早报-20250814
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of fundamentals, in the second week of August (week33), MSK performed well, OA was average, and PA was poor; cargo volume in week34 significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35 this week, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. The capacity reduction situation was not ideal, with a slight decline but still at a high level. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after including all TRN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [1] - From the perspective of the futures market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract is a peak - season contract with certain flexibility, and continuous position - shifting and contract - changing support it. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price is 2083.0, with a change of 0.05%, a basis of 152.5, a trading volume of 329, an open interest of 2629, and a change in open interest of - 227 [1] - For EC2510, the closing price is 1333.1, with a change of - 5.96%, a basis of 902.4, a trading volume of 66391, an open interest of 60740, and a change in open interest of 4786 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1700.1, with a change of - 2.41%, a basis of 535.4, a trading volume of 8332, an open interest of 11515, and a change in open interest of 103 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1488.0, with a change of - 2.62%, a basis of 747.5, a trading volume of 1870, an open interest of 4459, and a change in open interest of 270 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1328.6, with a change of - 1.59%, a basis of 906.9, a trading volume of 1257, an open interest of 5551, and a change in open interest of 125 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1473.0, with a change of - 0.61%, a basis of 762.5, a trading volume of 126, an open interest of 828, and a change in open interest of 61 [1] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 749.9, with a day - on - day change of 85.5 and a week - on - week change of 97.6 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 367.0, with a day - on - day change of - 42.6 and a week - on - week change of - 24.2 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 212.1, with a day - on - day change of - 1.9 and a week - on - week change of - 4.5 [1] Shipping Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48 points, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a year - on - year change of - 4.39% [1] - The European Line freight rate on August 8, 2025, is 1961 US dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 1.87% [1] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1799.05 points, with a month - on - month change of 0.53% and a year - on - year change of 0.13% [1] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1257.71 points, with a month - on - month change of - 8.37% and a year - on - year change of - 3.3% [1] Recent European Line Quotation Information - In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA Alliance is 2700 US dollars, MSK is 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance is 2900 - 3000 US dollars [2] - In week35, the average shipping company's quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points). On Monday, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars; HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars; on Wednesday, EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars [2] Related News - On August 12, the Israeli military stated that its operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage" [3] - On August 13, China emphasized maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [3]
集运早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current major contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. The fundamental situation shows that in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK showing better results, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly declined. This week, EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. Although the shipping capacity decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, it is 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the market to decline further. The December contract is a peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions provides some support. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 EC Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 12, 2025, for EC2508, the price was 2080.0 with a 0.43% increase; EC2510 was 1408.8 with a 1.89% decrease; EC2512 was 1750.0 with a 0.57% decrease; EC2602 had an 0.87% decrease; EC2604 was 1344.9 with a 0.60% decrease; EC2606 was 1497.1 with a 0.44% increase. The corresponding trading volumes were 242, 44961, 5774, 1471, 822, and 136 respectively, and the open interests were 3330, 26688, 10238, 4202, 5295, and 770 respectively, with changes of - 102, 86, - 3867, - 108, - 108, and - 30 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a daily increase of 36.2 and a weekly decrease of 4.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a daily decrease of 17.2 and a weekly decrease of 63.7. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9 [2]. 3.2 Shipping Index Information - **SCEIS Index**: Updated every Monday, as of August 11, 2025, the index was 2235.48, a 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a 0.81% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **SCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1961, a 4.39% decrease from the previous period and a 1.87% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **CCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1799.05, a 0.53% increase from the previous period and a 0.13% increase from the period before the previous one [2]. - **NCFI Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1257.71, an 8.37% decrease from the previous period and a 3.53% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quotation in week33 was about $3150 (equivalent to around 2200 points on the futures market). In week34, shipping companies' quotations dropped by $200 - 300, with an average of $2850 (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance quoted $2700, MSK quoted $2600, and the OA alliance quoted $2900 - 3000. For week35, MSK opened bookings at $2200 [2]. 3.4 Relevant News - On August 12, China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for another 90 days. The US will continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. China will also continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on US goods and take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [2]. - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City." On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new cease - fire plan for Gaza, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the cease - fire negotiations [2].
永安期货集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the European line shipping market, including the supply - demand situation, freight quotes, and relevant shipping indices. In August, the European line supply pressure is increasing, and freight quotes are showing a downward trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 0.07, a volume of 3579, and an open interest change of - 121 [24]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1420.4, a volume of 877.5, and an open interest change of - 765 [24]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1763.2, a volume of 534.7, and an open interest change of - 0.26% [24]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1505.4, a volume of 792.5, and an open interest change of 28 [24]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1346.8, a volume of 951.1, and an open interest change of - 69 [24]. - EC2606 had a closing price of - 0.77, a volume of 809.9, and an open interest change of - 11 [24]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - SCFIS (European line) on 2025/8/4 was 2297.86 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a two - week decrease of 3.50% [24]. - SCFI (European line) on 2025/8/1 was 2051 JT/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.87% and a week - on - two - week increase of 0.53% [24]. - CCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1803.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a two - week decrease of 3.53% [24]. - NCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1440.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.20% [24]. 3.3 European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes - In week 32 of August, the European line had good cargo collection but almost no cargo rejection. In week 33, the cargo collection of different alliances varied. MSK was better, OA was average, and PA was poor. MSK's freight dropped by $100, and OA and PA's shipping companies gradually cut prices by about $200 [24]. - Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European line is very high. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's capacity is revised down to 330,000 TEU due to the cancellation of EMC's independent - operation ship. The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [24]. - For week 33, the European line quote dropped to $2800 - $3200, with an average of $3000 (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures market). For week 34, the current average quote is $2900, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 booking at $2600, a week - on - week drop of $200, and then the price rose to $2640. CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices to $2920 and $3000 respectively, and HMM cut its price to $2700 [24]. 3.4 Other Information - On 8/6, the Israeli Prime Minister announced plans to implement military control over the entire Gaza Strip, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [24]. - The release of the XSI - CJ index is postponed by three working days [24].
集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:09
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the European line shipping market, including futures data, supply - demand situation, and price trends [2][3][4] Group 2: Futures Data - Futures contract data shows that on August 8, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2072.7 with a 0.07% increase, and there were different prices, price changes, and trading volumes for other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc [2] - The month - to - month spreads of different futures contracts also had various changes, such as EC2508 - 2510 with a 1.1 increase in the day - on - day comparison [2] Group 3: Index Data - SCHIE was updated weekly and on August 4, 2025, it was 2297.86 points, a 0.81% decrease from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European line) was updated on August 1, 2025, at 2051 dollars/TEU, a 1.87% decrease from the previous period [2] - CCFI was at 1789.5 points on August 1, 2025, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [2] - NCFI was 1372.7 points on August 1, 2025, a 3.53% decrease from the previous period [2] Group 4: Supply - Demand and Price Trends - In the first week of August (week 32), the European line had good cargo collection with few skipped containers. In week 33, the cargo collection situation varied among different alliances, with MSK performing better, OA average, and PA poor. MSK's price dropped by 100 dollars, and OA and PA's shipping companies dropped prices by about 200 dollars [2] - Starting from late August, the European line will face great supply pressure. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's is revised down to 330,000 TEU [3] - The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [3] - Currently, downstream is booking space for week 33 - 34 in August. The average quote for week 33 dropped to 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points on the disk), and the average quote for week 34 is currently 2900 dollars (equivalent to about 2000 points on the disk) [4] - On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 space at 2600 dollars, a 200 - dollar decrease from the previous week, and then the price rose to 2640 dollars. On Wednesday, CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices by 200 dollars to 2920 and 3000 dollars respectively. On Thursday, HMM lowered its price by 200 dollars to 2700 dollars [14]
永安期货集运早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures contracts show different price trends, with some experiencing declines and others increases. For example, EC2508 decreased by 1.58% to 2088.8, while EC2602 increased by 1.51% to 1492.4 [2][30]. - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures also have fluctuations. For instance, the day - on - day change of EC2508 - 2510 was - 24.7, and the week - on - week change was 5.5 [2][30]. - Shipping freight indices have various trends. SCFIS decreased by 0.81% to 2297.86, SCFI decreased by 1.87% to 2051 dollars/TEU, CCFI increased by 0.13% to 1789.5 points, and NCFI decreased by 3.53% to 1372.7 points [2][30]. - In the European line, there are supply and demand issues. In August, the first - week (week32) had good cargo collection but few container usages. Week33 had different cargo collection situations among alliances, and starting from late August, the supply pressure is very high [2][30]. - The recent European line quotes show price drops among many shipping companies. For example, CMA dropped 200 dollars to 3245 dollars, and HPL dropped 300 dollars to 2835 dollars [2][30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2088.8 with a - 1.58% change, trading volume of 209.1, and an open interest of 3946 [2][30]. - EC2510 closed at 1413.0 with a - 0.62% change, trading volume of 884.9, and an open interest of 52108 with a change of - 421 [2][30]. - EC2512 closed at 1690.5 with a 0.79% change, trading volume of 607.4, and an open interest of 8208 with a change of - 179 [2][30]. - EC2602 closed at 1492.4 with a 1.51% change, trading volume of 805.5, and an open interest of 4116 with a change of - 23 [2][30]. - EC2604 closed at 1331.0 with a 1.21% change, trading volume of 966.9, and an open interest of 4195 with a change of 49 [2][30]. - EC2606 closed at 1471.6 with a 1.27% change, trading volume of 826.3, and an open interest of 789 with a change of - 6 [2][30]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spreads of EC Futures - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 675.8, with a day - on - day change of - 24.7 and a week - on - week change of 5.5 [2][30]. - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 277.5, with a day - on - day change of - 22.1 and a week - on - week change of - 8.2 [2][30]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 198.1, with a day - on - day change of - 8.9 and a week - on - week change of - 7.9 [2][30]. 3.3 Shipping Freight Indices - SCFIS: Updated weekly on Mondays, the latest value on August 4, 2025, was 2297.86 points, with a 0.81% decline from the previous period and a 3.50% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. - SCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 2051 dollars/TEU, with a 1.87% decline from the previous period and a 0.53% increase from two periods ago [2][30]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 1789.5 points, with a 0.13% increase from the previous period and a 0.90% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 1372.7 points, with a 3.53% decline from the previous period and a 1.20% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. 3.4 European Line Supply and Demand - In August, week32 had good cargo collection but few container usages. Week33 had different cargo collection situations among alliances, with MSK performing better, OA average, and PA worse. Starting from late August, the supply pressure is very high, with week34/35 having a capacity of 340,000 TEU and the average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentative) being 343,000 TEU (323,000 TEU excluding TBN) [2][30]. 3.5 European Line Quotes - CMA dropped 200 dollars to 3245 dollars, HPL dropped 300 dollars to 2835 dollars, MSC dropped 300 dollars to 3040 dollars, and OOCL dropped 100 dollars to 3100 dollars. MSK opened the week34 booking at 2600 dollars, a 200 - dollar decline from the previous week, and then the price rose to 2640 dollars. The current average quote for week34 is equivalent to about 2050 points on the futures. Week33 quotes dropped to 2800 - 3200 dollars, with an average of 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures) [2][30]. 3.6 Related News - On August 4, the EU Commission spokesman said that the EU would suspend two sets of counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, targeting US tariffs on steel and aluminum products and the Trump administration's benchmark and auto tariffs [3][31]. - On August 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to fully occupy Gaza, and the plan will be submitted for a vote on August 7. As of August 5, the Israeli army had controlled about 75% of the Gaza Strip, and the new plan aims to occupy the remaining area [3][31]. 3.7 Index Delay - The XSI - C index will be delayed by three working days for publication [4][32].
集运早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:47
Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The EC futures contracts show price fluctuations, with most contracts experiencing declines in price and changes in trading volume and open interest [2] - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures also show certain changes, such as the EC2508 - 2510 spread decreasing by 2.0 and the EC2510 - 2512 spread increasing by 13.0 [2] - Some shipping freight indices, like SCFI, (European Line) CCFI, and NCFI, have changed in value, with SCFI down 1.87%, (European Line) CCFI up 0.13%, and NCFI down 3.53% [2] - In the European line shipping market, the supply pressure will be very high from late August, with week 34/35 capacity at 340,000 TEU and the average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentative) at 343,000 TEU (323,000 TEU without considering TBN). Shipping companies are gradually reducing prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory EC Futures Contracts - EC2508: Price is 2122.3, down 0.20% compared to the previous day, with an open interest of 4367 and a decrease of 93 [2] - EC2510: Price is 1421.8, down 0.15%, trading volume is 30268, open interest is 51053, and a decrease of 1323 [2] - EC2512: Price is 1677.2, down 0.90%, open interest is 8387 [2] - EC2602: Price is 1470.2, open interest is 4139, and a decrease of 3 [2] - EC2604: Price is 1315.1, open interest is 5146, and an increase of 34 [2] - EC2606: Price is 1453.2, down 0.81%, open interest is 795, with no change [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510: The spread is 700.5, a decrease of 2.0 compared to the previous day [2] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread is - 255.4, an increase of 13.0 compared to the previous day [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread is 207.0 [2] Shipping Freight Indices - Terdar: On August 4, 2025, the index was 2297.86, down 3.50% compared to the previous period [2] - SCFI: On August 1, 2025, it was 2051 dollars/TEU, down 1.87% compared to the previous period [2] - (European Line) CCFI: On August 1, 2025, it was 1789.5 points, up 0.13% compared to the previous period [2] - NCFI: On August 1, 2025, it was 1372.7 points, down 3.53% compared to the previous period [2] European Line Shipping Market - In week 32 of August, the cargo collection was good but there were basically no available containers. In week 33, the cargo collection situation of each alliance varied, with MSK performing well, OA average, and PA poor, and MSK's price dropped by 100 dollars [2] - Shipping companies such as OA and PA have gradually reduced prices by about 200 dollars [2] - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the first half of August (week 32 - 33). Week 32 actual prices are around 3200 dollars (equivalent to 2250 points). Week 33 current quotes have dropped to 2800 - 3200 dollars, with an average of 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points) [2]
集运早报-20250801
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the face of high capacity pressure and the approaching off - season of demand, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Information EC Futures Contracts and Forward Curve - EC futures contract prices show different trends, with varying degrees of decline and increase in different contract periods, such as EC2508 at 2121.6 with a decline of - 724, and EC2510 at 1425.1 with a decline of - 2.63 [1] - The monthly spread of EC contracts also shows different changes, for example, EC2508 - 2510 is - 267.2, with a day - on - day change of 2.1 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS decreased by 3.50% compared with the previous period, and SCFI increased by 0.53%. CCFI (European route) increased by 4.46%, and NCE increased by 0.35%. TCI remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] European Route Capacity and Freight Volume - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity of the European - American route is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 330,000 TEU respectively. The overall capacity pressure is high, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is still some support for the basic cargo volume in the first half of August, but the freight forwarders' perception is poor [1] Recent European Route Quotations - Downstream is currently booking cabins for early August (weeks 31 - 32). The landing price in week 32 is about $3300 (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk), and the landing price in week 33 is about 2150 points. MSK's opening quotation for week 33 is $2800, and other shipping companies mainly follow the previous quotations [1] - Shipping companies have adjusted their quotations in the past few days. For example, HPL reduced the price by $200 to $3100 on Tuesday, and MSC reduced the price by $300 to $3340 on Wednesday [1] Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indexes - The report presents the seasonal trends of freight rate indexes for multiple routes, including European routes, TCI (East Mediterranean), TCI (West Mediterranean), TCI (East America), TCI (West America), TCI (South - West America), TCI (East Africa), TCI (Persian Gulf), TCI (South Africa), and TCI (West Africa) [1][5]
集运早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Under the suppression of high capacity, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's trading price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a spread of 133.4, a trading volume of 2525, an open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1] - EC2510 had a trading price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a spread of 813.8, a trading volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1] - EC2512 had a trading price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a spread of 578.8, a trading volume of 1530, and an open interest change of 79 [1] - EC2602 had a trading price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a spread of 775.6, a trading volume of 2813, an open interest of 4456, and an open interest change of - 23 [1] - EC2604 had a trading price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a spread of 946.6, a trading volume of 2340, an open interest of 5242, and an open interest change of - 283 [1] - EC2606 had a trading price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a spread of 823.0, a trading volume of 323, an open interest of 832, and an open interest change of 44 [1] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 had a spread of 680.4 compared to 685.1 the previous day and 661.0 three days ago, a daily change of - 4.7, and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1] - EC2510 - 2512 had a spread of - 235.0 compared to - 192.7 the previous day and - 196.0 three days ago, a daily change of - 42.3, and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1] - EC2512 - 2602 had a spread of 196.8 compared to 201.4 the previous day and 217.6 three days ago, a daily change of - 4.6, and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - The Terdar index on July 28, 2025, was 2316.56, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from two periods ago [1] - The SCFI (European Line) on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% from two periods ago [1] - The CCFI (European Line) on July 25, 2025, was 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% from two periods ago [1] - The NCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% from two periods ago [1] - The TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change from two periods ago [1] European Line Supply and Demand - The average weekly capacity in August and September (tentatively) is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July had no significant pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provided some support, but the cargo volume declined marginally and gradually entered the off - season [1] Recent European Line Quotation - In July, the price remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, the PA Alliance dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 US dollars, MSK's opening price dropped slightly (2900 - 3000 US dollars) and then rose slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 US dollars. The price in week 31 landed at about 3300 US dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk) [2] Related News - On July 28, the US - EU trade agreement may mean a long - term suspension of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The risk balance may lean towards no interest rate cut at all [3] - On July 29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3] - On July 29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3] - On July 29, German government will approve the 2026 budget with record - high investment [3]
集运早报-20250724
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:19
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2239.7, down 0.44%, with an open interest of 11039, a decrease of 1354 [2] - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1537.0, down 0.71%, with an open interest of 50131, a decrease of 1603 [2] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1701.8, down 0.40%, with an open interest of 8446, a decrease of 87 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1477.3, up 1.15%, with an open interest of 4094, an increase of 112 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1324.0, up 0.32%, with an open interest of 5800, an increase of 262 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1468.8, up 0.60%, with an open interest of 807, an increase of 28 [2] Group 3: Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 702.7, with a target ratio of 1.0 and a week - on - week increase of 119.5 [2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 164.8, with a target ratio of - 4.1 and a week - on - week increase of 10.2 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 224.5, with a target ratio of - 23.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.1 [2] Group 4: Shipping Indexes - TT Index: Updated weekly, announced on July 21, 2025, at 2400.5 points, down 0.89% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 2079 dollars/TEU, down 0.95% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1803.42 points, up 4.46% from the previous period [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period [2] - TCI: Updated daily, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1054.56 points, down 0.75% from the previous period [2] Group 5: European Line Market Analysis - European Line Demand in August: The weekly average capacity in August is as high as 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support for cargo at the beginning of August. The market may remain stable or see a slight decline in some routes in the next half - month [2] - Recent European Line Quotations: Downstream is currently booking spaces for early August (week 31 - 32). In July, prices remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, although some shipping companies announced price increases, currently, most shipping companies are still using the previous prices, with MSK (shanghai - rotterdam) reducing the price by 100 to 2900 dollars and MSK (shanghai - antwerp) keeping the price stable at 2900 dollars, and MSK's加班船 (BEIJING MAERSK) quoting 2700 dollars [2] Group 6: News - July 24: The Israeli military said it was advancing military operations in northern Gaza, launching air strikes on more than a hundred military targets [3] - July 23: According to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, Hamas has made a preliminary response to the mediators' proposal regarding Gaza. The Israeli president told soldiers in Gaza that intensive negotiations were underway, hoping for good news soon [3] - July 23: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Chinese and US economic and trade officials will hold the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden next week [3]