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永安期货集运早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current major contradiction in the EC market is the decline rate during the off - season, affected by uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - In terms of fundamentals, in Week 33, the collection situation of the MSK improved, OA was average, and PA was poor; in Week 34, the collection significantly declined [2][17] - EMC canceled its independent ship in Week 35, and OA added a sailing suspension in Week 39. The weekly average capacities in August, September, and October 2025 (tentatively) are still high, with a slight decline [2][17] - Currently, the October contract is at a large discount to the spot. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks is in line with market expectations. The decline of the December contract did not drive the market down further. Due to the high liquidity and the support from continuous position - shifting, but the overall future drive is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to hold the short position of the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, trading volume of 92, open interest of 2556, and a change in open interest of - 73 [2][17] - EC2510: Closing price of 1359.5, change of 1.98%, trading volume of 32077, open interest of 56698, and a change in open interest of - 4042 [2][17] - EC2512: Closing price of 1723.3, change of 1.36%, trading volume of 6322, open interest of 11131, and a change in open interest of - 334 [2][17] - EC2602: Closing price of 1521.4, change of 2.24%, trading volume of 1393, open interest of 4424, and a change in open interest of - 35 [2][17] - EC2604: Closing price of 1335.0, change of 0.48%, trading volume of 1327, open interest of 5459, and a change in open interest of - 92 [2][17] - EC2606: Closing price of 1495.0, change of 1.49%, trading volume of 107, open interest of 832, and a change in open interest of 7 [2][17] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The spread was 724.4, with a day - on - day change of - 25.5 [2][17] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 363.8, with a day - on - day change of 3.2 [2][17] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 201.9, with a day - on - day change of - 10.2 [2][17] Spot Index Information - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. On August 11, 2025, it was 2235.48 points, with a decline of 2.71% from the previous period and a decline of 0.81% in the previous period [2][17] - SCH (European line): Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 4.39% from the previous period and a decline of 1.87% in the previous period [2][17] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1799.05 points, with a change of 0 - 3% from the previous period and an increase of 0.13% in the previous period [2][17] - NCFI: On August 8, 2025, it was 1257.71 points, with a decline of 8.57% from the previous period and a decline of 3.53% in the previous period [2][17] Recent European Line Quotations - Week 34: Shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance was 2700 dollars, MSK was 2600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 2900 - 3000 dollars [3][18] - Week 35: The current average shipping company quotation is 2630 dollars (1800 points). MSK opened at 2200 dollars. HPL dropped 400 dollars to 2435 dollars, EMC dropped 200 dollars to 2934 dollars. On Thursday, HMM dropped 200 dollars to 2500 dollars, OOCL dropped 300 dollars to 2800 dollars, and ONE dropped 200 dollars to 2508 dollars [3][18] Related News - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel [3][18] - On August 14, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that there must be a non - Israeli, peaceful, and non - armed government in Gaza after the war [3][18] Index Release Delay - The release of the XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4][19]
集运早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Contents Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, a basis of 151.6, a previous trading volume of 92, and a previous open interest of 2556 with a change of - 73. Other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc. also have their respective price, change, basis, trading volume, and open interest data [2] - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, etc. have their previous - day, two - day - ago, and day - on - day change data [2] Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was updated on August 11, 2025, at 2235.48 points, down 2.71% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago. The CCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1799.05 points, up 0.53% from the previous period. The NCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1257.71 points, down 8.7% from the previous period [2] Shipping Company Quotation Information - In week 34, shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In week 35, the average shipping company quote was 2630 US dollars (1800 points) [3] - On Monday, MSK opened at 2200 US dollars; HPL dropped 400 to 2435 US dollars. On Wednesday, EMC dropped 200 to 2934 US dollars [9] News Information - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that after the war, Gaza must have a non - Israeli, peaceful and non - armed government [4]
集运早报-20250814
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of fundamentals, in the second week of August (week33), MSK performed well, OA was average, and PA was poor; cargo volume in week34 significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35 this week, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. The capacity reduction situation was not ideal, with a slight decline but still at a high level. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after including all TRN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [1] - From the perspective of the futures market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract is a peak - season contract with certain flexibility, and continuous position - shifting and contract - changing support it. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price is 2083.0, with a change of 0.05%, a basis of 152.5, a trading volume of 329, an open interest of 2629, and a change in open interest of - 227 [1] - For EC2510, the closing price is 1333.1, with a change of - 5.96%, a basis of 902.4, a trading volume of 66391, an open interest of 60740, and a change in open interest of 4786 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1700.1, with a change of - 2.41%, a basis of 535.4, a trading volume of 8332, an open interest of 11515, and a change in open interest of 103 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1488.0, with a change of - 2.62%, a basis of 747.5, a trading volume of 1870, an open interest of 4459, and a change in open interest of 270 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1328.6, with a change of - 1.59%, a basis of 906.9, a trading volume of 1257, an open interest of 5551, and a change in open interest of 125 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1473.0, with a change of - 0.61%, a basis of 762.5, a trading volume of 126, an open interest of 828, and a change in open interest of 61 [1] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 749.9, with a day - on - day change of 85.5 and a week - on - week change of 97.6 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 367.0, with a day - on - day change of - 42.6 and a week - on - week change of - 24.2 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 212.1, with a day - on - day change of - 1.9 and a week - on - week change of - 4.5 [1] Shipping Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48 points, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a year - on - year change of - 4.39% [1] - The European Line freight rate on August 8, 2025, is 1961 US dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 1.87% [1] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1799.05 points, with a month - on - month change of 0.53% and a year - on - year change of 0.13% [1] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1257.71 points, with a month - on - month change of - 8.37% and a year - on - year change of - 3.3% [1] Recent European Line Quotation Information - In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA Alliance is 2700 US dollars, MSK is 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance is 2900 - 3000 US dollars [2] - In week35, the average shipping company's quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points). On Monday, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars; HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars; on Wednesday, EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars [2] Related News - On August 12, the Israeli military stated that its operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage" [3] - On August 13, China emphasized maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [3]
集运早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current major contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. The fundamental situation shows that in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK showing better results, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly declined. This week, EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. Although the shipping capacity decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, it is 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the market to decline further. The December contract is a peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions provides some support. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 EC Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 12, 2025, for EC2508, the price was 2080.0 with a 0.43% increase; EC2510 was 1408.8 with a 1.89% decrease; EC2512 was 1750.0 with a 0.57% decrease; EC2602 had an 0.87% decrease; EC2604 was 1344.9 with a 0.60% decrease; EC2606 was 1497.1 with a 0.44% increase. The corresponding trading volumes were 242, 44961, 5774, 1471, 822, and 136 respectively, and the open interests were 3330, 26688, 10238, 4202, 5295, and 770 respectively, with changes of - 102, 86, - 3867, - 108, - 108, and - 30 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a daily increase of 36.2 and a weekly decrease of 4.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a daily decrease of 17.2 and a weekly decrease of 63.7. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9 [2]. 3.2 Shipping Index Information - **SCEIS Index**: Updated every Monday, as of August 11, 2025, the index was 2235.48, a 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a 0.81% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **SCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1961, a 4.39% decrease from the previous period and a 1.87% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **CCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1799.05, a 0.53% increase from the previous period and a 0.13% increase from the period before the previous one [2]. - **NCFI Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1257.71, an 8.37% decrease from the previous period and a 3.53% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quotation in week33 was about $3150 (equivalent to around 2200 points on the futures market). In week34, shipping companies' quotations dropped by $200 - 300, with an average of $2850 (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance quoted $2700, MSK quoted $2600, and the OA alliance quoted $2900 - 3000. For week35, MSK opened bookings at $2200 [2]. 3.4 Relevant News - On August 12, China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for another 90 days. The US will continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. China will also continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on US goods and take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [2]. - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City." On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new cease - fire plan for Gaza, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the cease - fire negotiations [2].
集运早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. Group 3: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2508 closed at 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change, volume of 273, and an open interest of 3432 with a change of - 147; EC2510 closed at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change, volume of 56447, and an open interest of 56602 with a change of 3006; EC2512 closed at 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change, volume of 6068, and an open interest of 10276 with a change of 516; EC2602 closed at 1530.4 with a 1.66% change, volume of 1105, and an open interest of 4135 with a change of - 44; EC2604 closed at 1353.0 with a 0.46% change, volume of 1290, and an open interest of 5403 with a change of 34; EC2606 closed at 1490.5 with a 0.17% change, volume of 142, and an open interest of 800 with a change of - 8 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 compared to the previous week; EC2510 - 2512 was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 compared to the previous week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Spot Freight Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) on August 4th was 2297.86 dollars/TEU with a - 0.81% change from the previous period and - 3.50% from the period before; on August 8th, it was 1961 dollars/TEU with a - 4.39% change from the previous period and - 1.87% from the period before [2]. - The CCFI on August 8th was 1799.05 with a 0.53% change from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on August 8th was 1257.71 with an - 8.37% change from the previous period [2]. Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quote in week33 was about 3150 dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the futures). In week34, shipping companies' quotes dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance quoted 2700 dollars, MSK 2600 dollars, and the OA Alliance 2900 - 3000 dollars [3]. Group 6: Shipping Capacity Information - In week33 of August, the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK performing well, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a suspension in week39. The shipping capacity decreased slightly but remained high. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2]. Group 7: Related News - On August 8th, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five principles" for a cease - fire. On August 9th, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement for the Gaza Strip [4].
永安期货集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the European line shipping market, including the supply - demand situation, freight quotes, and relevant shipping indices. In August, the European line supply pressure is increasing, and freight quotes are showing a downward trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 0.07, a volume of 3579, and an open interest change of - 121 [24]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1420.4, a volume of 877.5, and an open interest change of - 765 [24]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1763.2, a volume of 534.7, and an open interest change of - 0.26% [24]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1505.4, a volume of 792.5, and an open interest change of 28 [24]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1346.8, a volume of 951.1, and an open interest change of - 69 [24]. - EC2606 had a closing price of - 0.77, a volume of 809.9, and an open interest change of - 11 [24]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - SCFIS (European line) on 2025/8/4 was 2297.86 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a two - week decrease of 3.50% [24]. - SCFI (European line) on 2025/8/1 was 2051 JT/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.87% and a week - on - two - week increase of 0.53% [24]. - CCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1803.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a two - week decrease of 3.53% [24]. - NCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1440.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.20% [24]. 3.3 European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes - In week 32 of August, the European line had good cargo collection but almost no cargo rejection. In week 33, the cargo collection of different alliances varied. MSK was better, OA was average, and PA was poor. MSK's freight dropped by $100, and OA and PA's shipping companies gradually cut prices by about $200 [24]. - Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European line is very high. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's capacity is revised down to 330,000 TEU due to the cancellation of EMC's independent - operation ship. The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [24]. - For week 33, the European line quote dropped to $2800 - $3200, with an average of $3000 (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures market). For week 34, the current average quote is $2900, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 booking at $2600, a week - on - week drop of $200, and then the price rose to $2640. CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices to $2920 and $3000 respectively, and HMM cut its price to $2700 [24]. 3.4 Other Information - On 8/6, the Israeli Prime Minister announced plans to implement military control over the entire Gaza Strip, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [24]. - The release of the XSI - CJ index is postponed by three working days [24].
集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:09
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the European line shipping market, including futures data, supply - demand situation, and price trends [2][3][4] Group 2: Futures Data - Futures contract data shows that on August 8, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2072.7 with a 0.07% increase, and there were different prices, price changes, and trading volumes for other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc [2] - The month - to - month spreads of different futures contracts also had various changes, such as EC2508 - 2510 with a 1.1 increase in the day - on - day comparison [2] Group 3: Index Data - SCHIE was updated weekly and on August 4, 2025, it was 2297.86 points, a 0.81% decrease from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European line) was updated on August 1, 2025, at 2051 dollars/TEU, a 1.87% decrease from the previous period [2] - CCFI was at 1789.5 points on August 1, 2025, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [2] - NCFI was 1372.7 points on August 1, 2025, a 3.53% decrease from the previous period [2] Group 4: Supply - Demand and Price Trends - In the first week of August (week 32), the European line had good cargo collection with few skipped containers. In week 33, the cargo collection situation varied among different alliances, with MSK performing better, OA average, and PA poor. MSK's price dropped by 100 dollars, and OA and PA's shipping companies dropped prices by about 200 dollars [2] - Starting from late August, the European line will face great supply pressure. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's is revised down to 330,000 TEU [3] - The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [3] - Currently, downstream is booking space for week 33 - 34 in August. The average quote for week 33 dropped to 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points on the disk), and the average quote for week 34 is currently 2900 dollars (equivalent to about 2000 points on the disk) [4] - On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 space at 2600 dollars, a 200 - dollar decrease from the previous week, and then the price rose to 2640 dollars. On Wednesday, CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices by 200 dollars to 2920 and 3000 dollars respectively. On Thursday, HMM lowered its price by 200 dollars to 2700 dollars [14]
永安期货集运早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures contracts show different price trends, with some experiencing declines and others increases. For example, EC2508 decreased by 1.58% to 2088.8, while EC2602 increased by 1.51% to 1492.4 [2][30]. - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures also have fluctuations. For instance, the day - on - day change of EC2508 - 2510 was - 24.7, and the week - on - week change was 5.5 [2][30]. - Shipping freight indices have various trends. SCFIS decreased by 0.81% to 2297.86, SCFI decreased by 1.87% to 2051 dollars/TEU, CCFI increased by 0.13% to 1789.5 points, and NCFI decreased by 3.53% to 1372.7 points [2][30]. - In the European line, there are supply and demand issues. In August, the first - week (week32) had good cargo collection but few container usages. Week33 had different cargo collection situations among alliances, and starting from late August, the supply pressure is very high [2][30]. - The recent European line quotes show price drops among many shipping companies. For example, CMA dropped 200 dollars to 3245 dollars, and HPL dropped 300 dollars to 2835 dollars [2][30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2088.8 with a - 1.58% change, trading volume of 209.1, and an open interest of 3946 [2][30]. - EC2510 closed at 1413.0 with a - 0.62% change, trading volume of 884.9, and an open interest of 52108 with a change of - 421 [2][30]. - EC2512 closed at 1690.5 with a 0.79% change, trading volume of 607.4, and an open interest of 8208 with a change of - 179 [2][30]. - EC2602 closed at 1492.4 with a 1.51% change, trading volume of 805.5, and an open interest of 4116 with a change of - 23 [2][30]. - EC2604 closed at 1331.0 with a 1.21% change, trading volume of 966.9, and an open interest of 4195 with a change of 49 [2][30]. - EC2606 closed at 1471.6 with a 1.27% change, trading volume of 826.3, and an open interest of 789 with a change of - 6 [2][30]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spreads of EC Futures - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 675.8, with a day - on - day change of - 24.7 and a week - on - week change of 5.5 [2][30]. - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 277.5, with a day - on - day change of - 22.1 and a week - on - week change of - 8.2 [2][30]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 198.1, with a day - on - day change of - 8.9 and a week - on - week change of - 7.9 [2][30]. 3.3 Shipping Freight Indices - SCFIS: Updated weekly on Mondays, the latest value on August 4, 2025, was 2297.86 points, with a 0.81% decline from the previous period and a 3.50% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. - SCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 2051 dollars/TEU, with a 1.87% decline from the previous period and a 0.53% increase from two periods ago [2][30]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 1789.5 points, with a 0.13% increase from the previous period and a 0.90% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 1372.7 points, with a 3.53% decline from the previous period and a 1.20% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. 3.4 European Line Supply and Demand - In August, week32 had good cargo collection but few container usages. Week33 had different cargo collection situations among alliances, with MSK performing better, OA average, and PA worse. Starting from late August, the supply pressure is very high, with week34/35 having a capacity of 340,000 TEU and the average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentative) being 343,000 TEU (323,000 TEU excluding TBN) [2][30]. 3.5 European Line Quotes - CMA dropped 200 dollars to 3245 dollars, HPL dropped 300 dollars to 2835 dollars, MSC dropped 300 dollars to 3040 dollars, and OOCL dropped 100 dollars to 3100 dollars. MSK opened the week34 booking at 2600 dollars, a 200 - dollar decline from the previous week, and then the price rose to 2640 dollars. The current average quote for week34 is equivalent to about 2050 points on the futures. Week33 quotes dropped to 2800 - 3200 dollars, with an average of 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures) [2][30]. 3.6 Related News - On August 4, the EU Commission spokesman said that the EU would suspend two sets of counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, targeting US tariffs on steel and aluminum products and the Trump administration's benchmark and auto tariffs [3][31]. - On August 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to fully occupy Gaza, and the plan will be submitted for a vote on August 7. As of August 5, the Israeli army had controlled about 75% of the Gaza Strip, and the new plan aims to occupy the remaining area [3][31]. 3.7 Index Delay - The XSI - C index will be delayed by three working days for publication [4][32].
集运早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:47
Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The EC futures contracts show price fluctuations, with most contracts experiencing declines in price and changes in trading volume and open interest [2] - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures also show certain changes, such as the EC2508 - 2510 spread decreasing by 2.0 and the EC2510 - 2512 spread increasing by 13.0 [2] - Some shipping freight indices, like SCFI, (European Line) CCFI, and NCFI, have changed in value, with SCFI down 1.87%, (European Line) CCFI up 0.13%, and NCFI down 3.53% [2] - In the European line shipping market, the supply pressure will be very high from late August, with week 34/35 capacity at 340,000 TEU and the average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentative) at 343,000 TEU (323,000 TEU without considering TBN). Shipping companies are gradually reducing prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory EC Futures Contracts - EC2508: Price is 2122.3, down 0.20% compared to the previous day, with an open interest of 4367 and a decrease of 93 [2] - EC2510: Price is 1421.8, down 0.15%, trading volume is 30268, open interest is 51053, and a decrease of 1323 [2] - EC2512: Price is 1677.2, down 0.90%, open interest is 8387 [2] - EC2602: Price is 1470.2, open interest is 4139, and a decrease of 3 [2] - EC2604: Price is 1315.1, open interest is 5146, and an increase of 34 [2] - EC2606: Price is 1453.2, down 0.81%, open interest is 795, with no change [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510: The spread is 700.5, a decrease of 2.0 compared to the previous day [2] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread is - 255.4, an increase of 13.0 compared to the previous day [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread is 207.0 [2] Shipping Freight Indices - Terdar: On August 4, 2025, the index was 2297.86, down 3.50% compared to the previous period [2] - SCFI: On August 1, 2025, it was 2051 dollars/TEU, down 1.87% compared to the previous period [2] - (European Line) CCFI: On August 1, 2025, it was 1789.5 points, up 0.13% compared to the previous period [2] - NCFI: On August 1, 2025, it was 1372.7 points, down 3.53% compared to the previous period [2] European Line Shipping Market - In week 32 of August, the cargo collection was good but there were basically no available containers. In week 33, the cargo collection situation of each alliance varied, with MSK performing well, OA average, and PA poor, and MSK's price dropped by 100 dollars [2] - Shipping companies such as OA and PA have gradually reduced prices by about 200 dollars [2] - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the first half of August (week 32 - 33). Week 32 actual prices are around 3200 dollars (equivalent to 2250 points). Week 33 current quotes have dropped to 2800 - 3200 dollars, with an average of 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points) [2]
集运早报-20250801
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the face of high capacity pressure and the approaching off - season of demand, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Information EC Futures Contracts and Forward Curve - EC futures contract prices show different trends, with varying degrees of decline and increase in different contract periods, such as EC2508 at 2121.6 with a decline of - 724, and EC2510 at 1425.1 with a decline of - 2.63 [1] - The monthly spread of EC contracts also shows different changes, for example, EC2508 - 2510 is - 267.2, with a day - on - day change of 2.1 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS decreased by 3.50% compared with the previous period, and SCFI increased by 0.53%. CCFI (European route) increased by 4.46%, and NCE increased by 0.35%. TCI remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] European Route Capacity and Freight Volume - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity of the European - American route is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 330,000 TEU respectively. The overall capacity pressure is high, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is still some support for the basic cargo volume in the first half of August, but the freight forwarders' perception is poor [1] Recent European Route Quotations - Downstream is currently booking cabins for early August (weeks 31 - 32). The landing price in week 32 is about $3300 (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk), and the landing price in week 33 is about 2150 points. MSK's opening quotation for week 33 is $2800, and other shipping companies mainly follow the previous quotations [1] - Shipping companies have adjusted their quotations in the past few days. For example, HPL reduced the price by $200 to $3100 on Tuesday, and MSC reduced the price by $300 to $3340 on Wednesday [1] Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indexes - The report presents the seasonal trends of freight rate indexes for multiple routes, including European routes, TCI (East Mediterranean), TCI (West Mediterranean), TCI (East America), TCI (West America), TCI (South - West America), TCI (East Africa), TCI (Persian Gulf), TCI (South Africa), and TCI (West Africa) [1][5]