证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 固定收益定期 生产资料价格环比回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 128.8 点（前值为 128.7 点），当周同比增加 6.1 点（前值为增加 6.1 点），同比增幅不变。利率债多空信号下调，信号 因子为 3.9%（前值为 4.1%）。 生产方面，工业生产高频指数为 127.5，前值为 127.5，当周同比增加 5.2 点（前值为增加 5.2 点），同比增幅不变。 总需求方面，商品房销售高频指数为 41.4，前值为 41.5，当周同比下降 6.2 点（前值为下降 6.2 点），同比降幅不变；基建投资高频指数为 122.5， 前值为 122.5，当周同比增加 9.1 点（前值为增加 9.1 点），同比增幅不变； 出口高频指数为 143.6，前值为 143.6，当周同比增加 0.8 点（前值为增加 0.9 点），同比增幅收窄；消费高频指数为 120.7，前值为 120.7，当周同 比增加 3.3 点（前值为增加 3.5 点），同比增幅收窄。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测为 0.1%（（前值 0.1%）；PP ...

ગુટ EBATA | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1773.9 | 涨跌 -0.10% | 基美 -416.2 | 昨日成交量 1997 | | 昨日持仓量 7323 | 持仓变动 -7/-37 | | | EC2602 | | 1556.1 | -4.59% | -198.4 | 28701 | | 43433 | 1404 | | | EC2604 | | 1133.2 | -2.56% | 224.5 | 2776 | | 15961 | -53 | | | EC2606 | | 1350.0 | -2.25% | 7.7 | 275 | | 1565 | -10 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1474.3 | -2.04% | -116.6 | 246 | | 1324 | 100 | | | EC2610 | | 1099.1 | -0.89% | 258.6 | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of tariff news and the afternoon MSK surcharge, the Wednesday futures market rose significantly. Affected by the previous congestion at European ports in the second half of November, 4 ships will have difficulty returning to Shanghai in time, which may lead to a tight fundamental situation in November. The market's neutral expectation for the freight rate in November is between $2000 - $2200 (1400 - 1540 points). Currently, the valuation of the December contract is moderately high. Driven by multiple positive factors such as subsequent price increases and long - term agreement signings from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy. The 02 contract is more difficult to value accurately with high uncertainty, and it is expected to follow the trend of the December contract in the next month. The 04 contract is a off - season contract, which fluctuates within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure next year, it is recommended to adopt a high - selling strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **EC Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are $1871.0, $1606.0, $1194.4, and $1422.9 respectively, with daily increases of 4.62%, 3.70%, 2.73%, and 3.56%. The trading volumes are 34539, 8665, 2935, and 1 respectively, and the open interests are 31906, 15885, 14394, and 1410 respectively, with open - interest changes of 3006.8, 1975, 115, and 0 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602 are 676.6 and 265.0 respectively, with month - on - month increases of 51.0 and 25.4, and week - on - week increases of 71.1 and 53.9 [2]. Index Data - **SCFI (European Route)**: Updated on October 24, 2025, the value is $1246/TEU, with a month - on - month increase of 8.82% and a previous - period increase of 7.21% [2]. - **CCFI (European Route)**: Updated on October 24, 2025, the value is 1293.12 points, with a month - on - month increase of 1.99% and a previous - period decrease of 1.49% [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated on October 24, 2025, the value is 822.3 points, with a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a previous - period increase of 14.96% [2]. Recent European Route Quotations - **Week 44**: The offline quotations are PA $1400, GEMINI $1600, and OA $1800 [3]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly between $2500 - $2700, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened at $2350, which met expectations, and then shipping companies adjusted the price to between $1900 - $2300, with a central value of $2100 [3]. Shipping Company Price Adjustments - **Monday**: HMM reduced the price to $1900, HPL to $2335, ONE to $2135, and MSC to $2265 [4]. - **Tuesday**: MSK reduced the price to $2200, OOCL to $2150, and YML reduced the price of a single route to $1900 [4]. - **Wednesday**: MSK announced a peak - season surcharge of $300/FEU for long - term agreements, and YML reduced the price of a single route to $1850 [4]. Related News - On October 29, the Israeli military stated that it had resumed the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but due to multiple expected price increase nodes and the upward drive during the long - term contract signing season, the logic of going long on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward disturbances, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but there are also geopolitical fluctuations. The April contract maintains the view of shorting on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and fluctuate strongly during the peak season from November to January and can be gradually short - positioned [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.8, up 0.15%, with a direct difference of 2.6, yesterday's trading volume was 817, yesterday's open interest was 4292, and open interest decreased by 526 [2][22]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1831.0, up 2.11%, with a direct difference of - 690.6, yesterday's trading volume was 35117, yesterday's open interest was 30249, and open interest increased by 1335 [2][22]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1601.0, up 1.20%, with a direct difference of - 460.6, yesterday's trading volume was 3971, yesterday's open interest was 11509, and open interest increased by 971 [2][22]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1179.6, up 0.67%, with a direct difference of - 39.2, yesterday's trading volume was 1726, yesterday's open interest was 14224, and open interest increased by 170 [2][22]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1397.9, up 1.68%, with a direct difference of - 257.5, yesterday's trading volume was 585, yesterday's open interest was 1377, and open interest decreased by 25 [2][22]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 693.2, the spread decreased by 36.2 compared to the previous day, and decreased by 111.3 compared to last Friday [2][22]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 230.0, the spread increased by 18.9 compared to the previous day, and increased by 70.0 compared to last Friday [2][22]. Spot Freight Index - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from two periods ago [2][22]. - CCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from two periods ago [2][22]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 822.3, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from two periods ago [2][22]. Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars. Shipping companies plan to increase prices in November, mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [3][23]. Relevant News - On October 27, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China. On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day negotiation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This was the fifth face - to - face negotiation between the two teams since May this year [4][24]. - On October 27, the Israeli government spokesman said that Israel would maintain full security control over the Gaza Strip [4][24].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the futures market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but considering the upcoming price increase announcements and the upward momentum during the long - term contract signing season, the strategy of buying on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward fluctuations, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but geopolitical fluctuations also exist. The April contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and show a slightly stronger trend during the peak season from November to January, and positions can be gradually established [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1136.1, 1793.1, 1582.0, 1171.8, and 1374.8 respectively, with changes of - 0.04%, 0.27%, - 0.06%, 0.03%, and 1.59% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 were 21899, 2589, and 1290 respectively, and the trading volume of EC2510 was 932. The open interests of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 decreased by 765, 94, 126, and 263 respectively [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 657.0 and 211.1 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 5.3 and 5.7, and week - on - week changes of - 99.2 and 28.4 [1]. Spot Index Data - **Spot Indices and Changes**: As of October 20, 2025, the spot index was 1140.38, up 10.52% from the previous period. The SCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1145 US dollars/TEU, up 7.21% from the previous period. The CCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1267.91, down 1.49% from the previous period. The NCFI (October 17, 2025) was 803.21, up 14.96% from the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Current Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). The offline quotes for Week 44 are PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 US dollars [2]. - **Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies have announced price increases to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Week 43/44 had good cargo receipts. The PA alliance attracted cargo by reducing prices and filled all spaces. OA and MSK accumulated container usage on some routes [2][19]. - In the second week of November, the significant decrease in newly added suspended shipping capacity (240,000 TEU) raised market expectations for shipping companies' price - increase determination. The implementation of price hikes in early November was better than expected, and OA and MSK might achieve partial implementation [2][19]. - The price - increase expectation for late November was set at the end of October, with an average weekly capacity of 300,000 TEU. The capacity in December is high but still subject to change [2][19]. - The logic of buying on dips in December remains unchanged, mainly due to upward drivers from multiple price - increase nodes in the future. However, the current valuation of December contracts is high, and they may fluctuate weakly following the spot market recently [2][19]. - Against the backdrop of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward potential of far - month contracts may be greater as the peak season approaches, but geopolitical disturbances are significant [2][19]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Data - EC2510 had a closing price of 1136.6, a change of 0.14%, a basis of 3.8, a trading volume of 1170, an open interest of 2283, and an open interest change of - 7839 [2][19]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1788.3, a change of 1.07%, a basis of - 647.9, a trading volume of 28612, an open interest of 29008, and an open interest change of 574 [2][19]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1582.9, a change of 0.95%, a basis of - 442.5, a trading volume of 4733, an open interest of 10664, and an open interest change of 431 [2][19]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1171.4, a change of 0.65%, a basis of - 31.0, a trading volume of 2101, an open interest of 14317, and an open interest change of 13 [2][19]. - EC2606 had a closing price of 1353.3, a change of - 0.57%, a basis of - 212.9, a trading volume of 117, and an open interest change of - 23 [2][19]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 651.7, with a daily change of - 17.4 and a weekly change of - 101.5. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 205.4, with a daily change of 4.1 and a weekly change of - 16.5 [2][19]. Spot Data - The spot price of ટેલનિ on October 20, 2025, was 1140.38 points, with a current increase of 10.52% and a previous decrease of - 1.40% [2][19]. - The SCFI on October 17, 2025, was 1145 dollars/TEU, with an increase of 7.21% [2][19]. - The CCFI on October 17, 2025, was 1267.91 points, with a decrease of - 1.49% [2][19]. - The NCFI on October 17, 2025, was 803.21 points, with a current increase of 14.96% and a previous increase of 11.39% [2][19]. Recent European Line Quotations - In Week 42, the final offline prices were PA1500, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 dollars, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk) [3][20]. - In Week 43, the PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 to 1400 dollars. The offline quotations were PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 dollars [3][20]. - Shipping companies' price - increase expectations for November are mostly between 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the disk. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2350 dollars, in line with expectations [3][20]. Group 4: Related News - On October 22, US Secretary of State Rubio planned to visit Israel to promote the consolidation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4][21]. - On October 22, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would impose a 155% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1, despite expressing hopes for friendly relations with Beijing [4][21]. - The XSI - C index is announced with a three - day delay [4][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes later. The current valuation of December is not low, and it has returned to the stage mainly driven by spot (price increase announcements & implementation). In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward space of far - month contracts is larger [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1100.1, 1682.0, 1522.0, 1155.1, and 1330.3 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 1.65%, 3.40%, 2.77%, and 3.68%. The position of EC2510 decreased by 628, while that of EC2512 increased by 442 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 581.9 and 160.0 respectively, with daily decreases of 24.1 and 22.7 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCHIC**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 20, 2025, is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Shipping Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The average weekly capacities in October, November, and December are 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended, they are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season, the cargo collection in week 42 was good, and that in week 43 of the OA alliance was good with a small amount of container use in the south. The cargo volume of PA and GEMINI was average. The supply - demand relationship maintained a weak balance. In week 44, with high capacity, the cargo - collection pressure increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. 3.4 Shipping Quotes - **Week 42**: The final offline prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1500, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 dollars to 1400 dollars. The offline quotes of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1400, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively [8]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers from multiple price increase announcements later. The valuation of the December contract is not low, and it has entered a period of band trading mainly driven by spot prices (announcements and implementations of price increases). Geopolitical factors have a large impact on 2026 contracts [2] - The supply pressure is high, with the average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December at 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively. The market is in the off - season, with a weak balance between supply and demand. In week 44, the shipping capacity is high, and the pressure on cargo collection has increased sharply, especially for the PA alliance [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1096.9, 1654.7, 1472.0, 1124.0, and 1283.1 respectively, with changes of - 0.36%, 0.22%, 2.99%, 0.37%, and 0.15% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1580, 29837, 5161, 3030, and 172 respectively. The open interests are 9024, SERED, 9438, 13702, and 1545 respectively, with changes of - 1036, - 139, 79, - 257, and - 2 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 557.8 and 182.7 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 7.6 and - 39.2, and week - on - week changes of - 124.7 and - 19.9 [2] 3.2 Freight Index Data - **TETANT Index**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 13, 2025, was 1031.80 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period [2] - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, was 1145 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 7.21% from the previous period [2] - **CCFI (European Line)**: The value on October 17, 2025, was 1267.91 points, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous period [2] - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, was 803.21 points, an increase of 14.96% from the previous period [2] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline implementation prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA were 1500, 1600, and 1800 US dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [3] - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The announced price increase in November is to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [3] 3.4 Related News - On October 20, US President Trump stated that the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip was still in effect. Egyptian officials said that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had no intention of reaching the second - stage agreement of the Gaza cease - fire [4] - On October 20, the Israeli military resumed implementing the Gaza cease - fire agreement after retaliatory air strikes. On October 19, Israeli National Security Minister Ben - Gvir called on Prime Minister Netanyahu to fully resume military operations in the Gaza Strip [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. On Thursday, the market declined due to shipping companies' push for price cuts at the end of October. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the price increase announcements in the first half of November are expected to have poor implementation. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. Currently, the valuation of the December contract is high, and long - positions are back in a driver - dominated period. Geopolitics has a large impact on 2026 contracts [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1100.9 with a - 1.76% change, EC2512 at 1651.1 with a - 3.37% change, EC2602 at 1429.2 with a - 2.34% change, EC2604 at 1119.9 with a - 1.94% change, and EC2606 at 1281.2 with a - 1.94% change [2][27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2461, 27124, 5516, 3388, and 302 respectively. The open interests were 10060, 25798, 20, 13858, and 1547 respectively, with changes of - 1275, - 1225, - 463, 233, and 37 [2][27]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 550.2, with a month - on - month increase of 37.8 and a week - on - week decrease of - 100.3. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 221.9, with a month - on - month decrease of - 23.3 and a week - on - week decrease of - 11.1 [2][27]. 3.2 Shipping Index Data - **SCFI**: As of 2025/10/13, it was 1031.80 points, a - 1.40% change from the previous period. In terms of dollars/TEU, it was 1068, a 9.99% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **CCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 1287.15 points, a - 8.19% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **NCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 698.67 points, an 11.39% change from the previous period [2][27]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - Week40 - 41: The average quotation was about 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - Week42: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars. Offline, OA quoted 1800, PA 1400, and GEMINI about 1600 US dollars, with an estimated average of 1560 US dollars (equivalent to 1100 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - November price - increase announcements: MSK, CMA, OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo collection of many shipping companies in week 43 and high shipping capacity in week 44 (330,000 TEU), the expected price increases are difficult to implement [3][28]. 3.4 Related News - On October 17, US President Trump stated that if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, the US will have no choice but to enter and eliminate them. Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiation of the Gaza cease - fire [4][29].