Core Insights - Recent on-chain data indicates that several metrics are approaching levels seen at the beginning of the bear market in early 2022, with significant pressure on top buyers and a rapid increase in the supply of Bitcoin at a loss [1][3] - The current Bitcoin trading environment is characterized as high-risk, necessitating heightened vigilance from investors [1] On-Chain Market Analysis - As of mid-November, Bitcoin's spot price has fallen to approximately $96,100, which is around the 0.75 percentile of the cost basis for top buyers, resulting in over 25% of Bitcoin supply being at a loss [1][3] - The conditions mirror those at the onset of the bear market in early 2022, suggesting that pressure on top buyers may lead to short-term sell-offs and increased market volatility [1] Off-Chain Market Dynamics - There are signs of weakening demand in the off-chain market, with a notable decline in investor risk appetite [2][4] - ETF fund flows have experienced a continuous outflow for six weeks, totaling over $2.7 billion, marking the longest negative outflow period since the launch of related ETF products in January 2024 [2][4] - Spot trading volumes are also declining, with Binance's cumulative volume difference remaining negative, and Coinbase's premium, although briefly positive, is expected to revert to negative territory [2][4] Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - Market participants are exhibiting a cautious stance in the options market, favoring selling call options rather than buying into potential price increases, indicating limited expectations for significant short-term gains [5] - Despite the pressures indicated by both on-chain and off-chain data, capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, with a monthly average inflow of approximately $8.69 billion, although this is significantly lower than the peak of $64.3 billion in the summer of 2025 [3][5] - Derivatives market data shows a decline in open interest and a neutral overall funding rate, with a notable cooling of funding rate premiums, suggesting a reduction in speculative behavior [5] Market Outlook - In the context of converging risk sentiment and stabilizing market structure, Bitcoin is likely to continue a range-bound pattern in the short term [3][5] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming key events, such as the forthcoming FOMC meeting, which may impact market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market is currently facing dual pressures from a surge in put option demand and significant Bitcoin deposits by miners, indicating potential selling intentions and heightened bearish sentiment among traders [1][3][5]. Group 1: Options Market Indicators - The demand for put options has increased significantly, with the Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew rising above 10%, indicating that traders are willing to pay higher premiums to hedge against price declines [5][8]. - On Thursday, the trading volume of put options exceeded that of call options by 50% on Deribit exchange, marking the highest level in over 30 days, reflecting growing concerns among market participants [7][8]. - This shift in sentiment is notable as it contrasts with the typically optimistic outlook of cryptocurrency traders, suggesting increasing market pressure [8]. Group 2: Miners' Activity - Miners have transferred approximately 51,000 Bitcoins to Binance since October 9, valued at over $5.7 billion, marking the largest inflow to exchanges since July [9][11]. - On October 11 alone, miners deposited over 14,000 Bitcoins, coinciding with a significant market downturn, indicating a potential shift from holding to selling [9][12]. - Historically, such transfers from miners to exchanges are often precursors to market declines, as they may signal intentions to sell or hedge [11][13][14].