炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年经济的增长动能与复苏质量，在很大程度上取决于存量问题的解决进度与实效 文|《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑 | 王延春 2025年底中央经济工作会议闭幕后，各部委近期陆续列出2026年任务清单，更多增量政策即将出台。同 时，各地政府部门也陆续召开经济工作会议，分析当前形势，部署2026年经济任务。 2026年，是"十五五"规划的开局之年，在这一关键节点，做好经济工作对稳增长、提振市场信心至关重 要。2026年中国经济预计在政策支持和结构转型、深度改革下稳步增长，多位专家预测，增速可能在 4.5%-5%左右，重点在于扩大内需，通过创新驱动和绿色发展培育新动能，同时稳定房地产市场与化解 地方债务，保持财政和货币政策的积极支持。 过去的2025年，中国经济在中美贸易摩擦等内外复杂因素影响下抗住压力，彰显韧性，亮点纷呈。以科 技创新为核心驱动力的新质生产力加速形成，科技创新多点突破，人工智能大模型、人形机器人、生物 创新药等前沿领域取得重要进展，驱动经济提质增效。2025年1月-11月，规模以上高技术制造业增加值 同比增长9.2%，智能消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that 2026 will be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with a potential full-scale launch of the A-share market by mid-2026, driven by trends in the technology industry and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and New Drivers - New factors and assets are becoming the new drivers of economic growth, with knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent leading the way [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive reform, with 2026 marking the acceleration of these reforms [2][3]. - The nominal GDP recovery in 2026 is anticipated to improve corporate profitability, with service demand showing greater elasticity [2]. Group 2: Reform and Opportunities - The focus for 2026 will be on leveraging reforms for dividends, emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, particularly in the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives [3]. - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified market, development of new productive forces, and reforms in social security and financial systems [3]. Group 3: A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant rally by mid-2026, with a potential peak in the spring of 2026 [4]. - Factors supporting this rally include cyclical improvements in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in resident asset allocation towards equities [4][5]. - Investment focus areas for 2026 include basic chemicals, industrial metals, AI industry chains, and sectors related to manufacturing influence [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive deepening of reforms, with 2026 marking the beginning of accelerated reforms since the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Continuous deepening of domestic demand expansion policies will lead to improvements in corporate profitability during the nominal GDP recovery process [1] - Service demand within consumption is more elastic, making investment growth likely to show a "front low, back high" trend [1] Group 2: Reform Opportunities - The acceleration of reform processes is creating significant opportunities, with short-term domestic demand policies expected to strengthen under a long-term reform framework [1] - The breadth, depth, and intensity of the "dividend" from the era are closely related to the ongoing reforms [1] Group 3: Focus Areas for 2026 - Key areas to focus on in 2026 include the construction of a unified national market, development of new productive forces, reforms related to social welfare, financial and tax system reforms, and accelerating green transformation [1]