"改革进度的加快，酝酿着巨大的时代机遇；短期扩内需政策，或将在中长期改革框架下持续加强；时 代'红利'的广度、深度和强度，也与'改革'紧密相关。"赵伟表示，持续深化的扩内需政策有利于消费需 求筑底改善；"投资于人"政策加力、民生保障领域改革等，将助力服务消费空间持续打开。 赵伟强调，2026年向"改革"要红利，或可重点关注统一大市场建设、发展新质生产力、民生保障相关改 革、财税金融体系改革、加快绿色转型等方面。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：中国证券报·中证网 中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会，申万宏源证券 首席经济学家赵伟在演讲中表示，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年或将是二十 届三中全会以来"改革"全面加速的开始。伴随持续深化的扩内需政策，名义GDP修复过程中将带动企业 盈利改善；消费需求中服务需求弹性更大，投资增速更容易"前低后高"。 ...

申万宏源宏观 向"改革"要红利——2026年宏观形势展望（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Sri Lanka Economic and Investment Summit will gather international and regional experts to discuss reform, economic resilience, and investment-driven growth [1] - The summit is organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and will take place in Colombo from December 2 to 3 [1] - Keynote speakers include Kenneth Shen from EDOTCO Group, Gevorg Sargsyan from the World Bank, and Alex Patelis, former chief economic advisor to the Greek Prime Minister, among others [2][3] Group 2 - The summit will feature discussions on sustainable development, green logistics, and inclusive finance, with insights from various industry leaders [2] - Sponsors of the summit include Nestlé, Standard Chartered Bank, Unilever, VISA, and South Asia Gateway Terminal [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Biological is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with a notable drop in both revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the structural collapse of its core business in skin science innovation [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huaxi Biological reported revenue of 2.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 221 million yuan, down 35.38% [1][3]. - The company's revenue in Q2 2025 was 1.183 billion yuan, a decline of 18.44% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 119 million yuan, marking a 20.89% increase, indicating a potential turning point in profitability [3][4]. Core Business Challenges - The skin science innovation transformation business, previously known as functional skincare products, has seen a revenue decline of 33.97% in the first half of 2025, contributing to 40.36% of the company's main business revenue [3][4]. - The functional skincare business, which had previously driven growth, has seen its revenue shrink from 4.607 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.569 billion yuan in 2024, nearly halving its contribution to main business revenue [4]. Other Business Segments - Besides the core skincare business, Huaxi Biological's other two segments—raw materials and medical terminal businesses—also faced declines, with raw materials revenue at 626 million yuan (down 0.58%) and medical terminal revenue at 673 million yuan (down 9.44%) in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. Reform and Management Changes - The company has initiated a series of reforms since 2024, focusing on business process restructuring, organizational changes, and enhancing management efficiency, but these efforts have yet to yield significant results [6][7]. - In the first half of 2025, there were notable changes in the management structure, with 11 executives leaving and an increase in R&D personnel by 35, although management costs rose by 11.63% [6][7]. R&D Investment - Huaxi Biological increased its R&D expenditure to 231 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 15.25% increase year-on-year, focusing on high-barrier products and medical terminal business [7]. - The company is currently undergoing a strategic upgrade, shifting its R&D focus towards glycoscience and cell biology, while maintaining that the decline in functional skincare products is not due to missing market opportunities [7].

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Biological is experiencing a painful period of performance decline, with significant drops in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huaxi Biological reported revenue of 2.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 221 million yuan, down 35.38% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.183 billion yuan, a decline of 18.44% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 20.89% to 119 million yuan [1] Business Segment Analysis - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in the skin science innovation transformation business, which saw a 31.62% decrease in revenue in 2024 and continued to decline in the first half of 2025 [1] - Other business segments, including raw materials and medical terminal businesses, also experienced varying degrees of decline, with raw materials revenue at 626 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% [1][2] Reform and Management Changes - The year 2024 was defined as the "year of reform" for Huaxi Biological, with multiple initiatives launched to reshape business processes and organizational structures [1] - In Q2 2025, the chairman and general manager, Zhao Yan, took direct control of core business segments to accelerate strategic implementation [1][2] - The company reported a turnover in its personnel structure, with 11 executives leaving and an increase of 35 R&D staff, although average salaries decreased year-on-year [2] R&D Investment - In the first half of 2025, Huaxi Biological invested 231 million yuan in R&D, a year-on-year increase of 15.25%, focusing on high-barrier products and bioactive materials [2] - The number of R&D projects decreased by 88 compared to 2024, indicating a shift in focus towards more strategic areas [2] Market Comparison - In contrast to Huaxi Biological, competitor Jinbo Biological reported revenue of 859 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.43%, highlighting the competitive pressures in the functional skincare market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes a stable economic approach while seeking progress, aiming to maintain macroeconomic stability and ensure social order [1][2]. Economic Stability - The government sets a GDP growth target of around 5.5%, indicating a need for significant effort to achieve this amid high baseline figures [2]. - Macro policies will focus on precise and sustainable measures rather than broad stimulus, aiming to avoid negative effects like overcapacity and asset bubbles [2]. Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target is set at around 3%, with plans to stabilize prices of essential commodities like food and energy [2]. - The government will enhance market monitoring and crack down on illegal price manipulation and speculation [2]. Supply Security - The government expresses confidence in ensuring energy supply security through increased production capacity and strategic reserves [3]. - Plans include the construction of large-scale renewable energy bases and enhancing coal and gas storage capabilities [3]. Reform and Innovation - The government aims to implement significant reforms to stimulate market vitality and expand domestic demand, focusing on five key areas [4]. - Initiatives will address supply chain issues, particularly in the semiconductor sector, to alleviate shortages in manufacturing [4][5]. New Consumption Models - The government plans to foster new consumption models in sectors like smart retail and tourism, promoting green and low-carbon products [5]. - Infrastructure projects will be accelerated to enhance connectivity and support the development of new technologies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The goal of the elected government is to improve the country, which necessitates driving change and implementing reforms [1] Group 1 - The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of transformation for national improvement [1]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of completing the "13th Five-Year Plan" and achieving the goal of building a moderately prosperous society, while initiating the new journey of building a modern socialist country through effective reforms [1][6] - The meeting highlighted the critical role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as a foundation for socialism and their significant contributions during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in emergency supply, medical support, and stabilizing supply chains [2] - The meeting discussed the need for a three-year action plan for SOE reform, focusing on enhancing competitiveness, innovation, and risk resistance while maintaining the leadership of the Communist Party [2] Group 2 - The meeting called for accelerating the integration of new-generation information technology with manufacturing, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and the adoption of smart manufacturing practices [3] - It was noted that rural land system reforms should ensure the protection of collective ownership while exploring ways to enhance farmers' rights and interests [3] - The meeting stressed the importance of media integration and the development of a comprehensive media system to enhance public communication and cultural transmission [3] Group 3 - The meeting addressed the need for educational reform, focusing on improving evaluation systems to align with socialist educational goals and reduce the emphasis on standardized testing [4] - It was highlighted that state-owned cultural institutions play a vital role in promoting socialist culture and should focus on producing high-quality artistic works that meet public demand [5] - The meeting reviewed the progress of healthcare reforms since the 18th National Congress, emphasizing the need for a robust healthcare system and the importance of preventive health measures [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.940 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, an increase of 5.80% year-on-year. The performance in 2024 met expectations, while Q1 2025 slightly exceeded expectations [10] - The company is focusing on three key reform strategies: controlling volume and maintaining prices, establishing sales companies, and building platform companies. This approach aims to streamline the relationship between volume and price, maintain distributor profits, reduce inventory, and enhance the C-end network system focused on direct sales and group purchases [10] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 5.13%, 5.43%, and 5.21% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.54%, 5.39%, and 5.43% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years are 8.58, 9.04, and 9.53 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.00X, 14.24X, and 13.50X, indicating a favorable valuation [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue from other liquor products was 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 60.81% [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 89.175 billion yuan, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.09% and 5.44% respectively [10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77.05%, with a net margin of 37.22%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 77.74% and the net margin was 41.60% [5] Sales and Distribution - The company’s distribution revenue in 2024 was 48.738 billion yuan, a 5.99% increase year-on-year, while direct sales revenue was 34.389 billion yuan, up 12.89% [3] - The number of distributors increased by 82 for Wuliangye and 245 for Wuliangye Fragrance in 2024, with a total of 1.6 million new core terminals added [3] - The company has integrated its marketing regions into three major areas: North, South, and East, enhancing its market responsiveness [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.940 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.69% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a significant increase of 2,970.31% to 15.849 billion yuan [5] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 4.826 billion yuan to 11.690 billion yuan in 2024, with a further increase of 5.119 billion yuan to 10.166 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales and group purchase capabilities, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth in line with macroeconomic indicators [10]

Group 1: Reform Initiatives - Hangzhou has implemented 19 major reform projects in 2024, achieving breakthroughs in high-energy scientific innovation platform reforms and social credit system construction [1] - A total of 95 reform tasks across 7 special reform areas have been completed, with 17 practices promoted by national ministries and 8 results selected as national pilot projects [1] - In 2025, Hangzhou will focus on 13 major reforms and 264 key reform projects, alongside 50 national reform pilot initiatives [1] Group 2: Talent and Innovation - Hangzhou aims to integrate education, technology, and talent reforms, establishing a mechanism for discovering young talent and implementing the "Qinghe Plan" to support innovative youth [2] - The city is enhancing the synergy between technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthening talent cultivation and establishing a system for training outstanding engineers [2] - Efforts are being made to optimize the business environment, including improving project lifecycle management and facilitating foreign talent employment in cross-border e-commerce [2] Group 3: Social Equity and Public Services - Urban-rural integration is a key path to achieving common prosperity, with initiatives to encourage cooperation among government, enterprises, and rural communities [3] - Hangzhou is exploring new models for integrated healthcare services and revising medical insurance regulations to enhance public service equality [3] - The city is also focusing on optimizing educational resources and improving the infrastructure of public schools to adapt to demographic changes [3] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Development - Hangzhou is enhancing its international influence through cultural and tourism integration, upgrading the "AI Hangzhou Easy Travel" service brand [4] - The city is innovating luggage services and exploring dynamic logistics solutions to improve travel convenience [4] - Initiatives to promote the "first performance economy" and enhance the international profile of Hangzhou's performing arts are also underway [4]