文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 报告披露 "十五五"规划的主要目标指标、重大战略任务和重大工程项目。 "十五五"GDP目标增速延续"保持合理区间、年度视情提出"的务实基调，锚定2035 年人均 较 2020年 GDP翻番的的长远目标。研发投入维持7%以上的年均增速，提出数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重达12.5%。单位国内生产总值二氧化 碳排放目标累计降低17%。人口教育与健康等指标均有上调，粮食及能源产能目标被重点提及。 二、"既要政策给力，也要改革发力"，用改革的办法打通经济循环的卡点堵点 "既要政策给力，也要改革发力"是核心施策导向。 报告延续 2025年中央经济工作会议的政策基调，在突出"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期 和跨周期调节力度"、强化政策协同与精准滴灌的基础上，更加强调改革作用，提出"要用改革的办法打通经济循环的卡点堵点，将政策效果转化为经济内生 增长动能"。统一大市场建设、财税金融改革、制度型开放等或加快推进。 财政政策延续 "更加积极"的总基调，政策力度保持平稳、投向结构持续优化。 2026年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，与2025年持平，对应赤字规模5. ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing industry is facing intense price wars, leading to thinner profit margins and inadequate R&D investment, which in turn affects product quality. Despite impressive international surplus figures, increasing anti-dumping measures and tariffs from Europe and the U.S. pose significant challenges for domestic industries [2]. Group 1: Price Competition and Regulatory Actions - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote quality improvement while facilitating the exit of outdated production capacity [4]. - Major companies in the photovoltaic glass industry agreed to collectively reduce production by 30%, lowering supply to approximately 45 GW [5]. - The automotive industry introduced compliance guidelines for pricing, while the Ministry of Agriculture held discussions on capacity regulation in the pig farming sector [7]. Group 2: Capacity Reduction and Market Regulation - The governance of overcapacity is being effectively addressed, with companies in the photovoltaic glass sector reducing output through various methods, and the steel and cement industries adopting staggered production practices [12]. - Regulatory bodies are actively checking local financial subsidies, correcting violations, and ensuring that resources are concentrated in more efficient sectors [12][14]. - The exit of outdated capacity is being managed with precision, supported by industry associations providing cost reference data and regulatory enforcement against below-cost sales [14]. Group 3: Development of New Productive Forces - The shift from low-end price competition to high-quality development is being prioritized, with resources redirected towards key sectors such as chip manufacturing and quantum computing [16]. - Increased R&D investment and enhanced collaboration between academia and industry are accelerating the transformation of technological achievements [16]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing marginal improvements in investment, with traditional industries undergoing digital transformation and emerging industries expanding [16]. Group 4: Economic and Market Implications - The combined efforts to combat internal competition and build a unified market are alleviating supply-demand mismatches, leading to moderate price increases and improved corporate profits [18]. - Structural policies are being precisely targeted at key areas, with macroeconomic policies maintaining a stable expansion, which is expected to enhance A-share corporate profit growth [19]. - The overall process aims to transition from a reliance on scale and low prices to a market-driven resource allocation, fostering a healthier industry ecosystem [21].

恭贺新春 2026年既是"十五五"的启幕之年，更是经济转型与制度改革全面发力的关键节点。2026年，经济将步入 非典型"复苏"状态，名义GDP修复过程中带动企业盈利改善；由于供需两端的助力，在行业间、企业间分 化明显，结构性特征依然会非常突出。 "反内卷"与"扩内需"将成为打破循环阻滞的核心抓手。 一方面，政策通过"反内卷"遏制低价竞争，修复 企业受损利润表，推动PPI转正与盈利回升；另一方面，政策突出"投资于人"，依托民生保障改革与服务 业开放，或将持续打开服务消费增长空间。为增强内需动能，财政政策仍将靠前发力，加大化债力度以缓 解对投资资金的"挤出效应"，确保固定资产投资，尤其是设备更新领域及数字基建与能源转型等方向投资 稳步修复，激发经济内生动力。 短期来看，2026年A股有望在"顺周期"新叙事下迎来资金"再平衡"的延续。伴随名义GDP修复与资产回报 率预期改善， 资金有望从低利率、高波动的债市向权益市场流动，推动资产价格重估。 尽管外部贸易形 势仍存在不确定性，但国内政策工具箱储备充足、出口结构持续优化，经济发展仍具韧性。资本市场将不 仅反映经济量的增长，更将定价质的提升与盈利的实质性改善，A股有望在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and is a critical juncture for economic transformation and institutional reform, with a non-typical "recovery" state expected, leading to improved corporate profitability and significant structural differentiation across industries and companies [3] Group 1: Economic Recovery and Policy Measures - The policy focus on "anti-involution" aims to curb low-price competition, restore damaged profit margins, and promote a positive Producer Price Index (PPI) and profit recovery [3] - The emphasis on "investing in people" through social security reforms and service industry openness is expected to continuously unlock growth in service consumption [3] - Fiscal policies will play a crucial role in enhancing domestic demand, with increased efforts to alleviate the "crowding out effect" on investment funds, ensuring steady recovery in fixed asset investments, particularly in equipment upgrades, digital infrastructure, and energy transition [3] Group 2: Capital Market Outlook - In the short term, the A-share market is expected to experience a continuation of capital "rebalancing" under a new "pro-cyclical" narrative, with funds likely flowing from low-yield, high-volatility bond markets to equity markets, driving asset price revaluation [4] - Despite uncertainties in external trade, the domestic policy toolbox remains robust, and the continuous optimization of export structures indicates resilience in economic development [4] - The capital market is anticipated to reflect not only quantitative economic growth but also qualitative improvements in pricing and profitability, with A-shares expected to gradually elevate their central tendency amidst volatility [4] Group 3: Long-term Structural Changes - During the "15th Five-Year Plan," industrial "transformation" and reform "dividends" will be key engines for high-quality development, focusing on breaking institutional bottlenecks and stimulating the vitality of business entities [4] - Key areas for attention in 2026 include the construction of a unified national market, high-level opening-up, accelerated green transformation, social security, and financial system reforms [4] Group 4: Unified Market and Green Transformation - The construction of a unified market involves establishing basic market systems, infrastructure, resource markets, government behavior standards, and market regulation, alongside expanding both domestic and international openness [5] - The acceleration of green transformation will focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications in traditional high-energy-consuming industries, promoting low-carbon and efficient transitions through technological innovation and capacity replacement [5] - The combination of green transformation and industrial upgrading is expected to enhance the core competitiveness of traditional industries, achieving a dual win of "carbon reduction" and "quality improvement" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision and Intellectual Property Work Conference emphasizes the importance of high-quality economic development and the establishment of an efficient market supervision system, outlining key tasks for 2026 and the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1 - The conference aims to implement the "three high" goals: promoting high-quality economic development, serving high-quality life for the public, and building an efficient market supervision system [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on five major actions: cultivating and expanding business entities, clearing obstacles in the unified market, enhancing quality competitiveness, strengthening intellectual property, and ensuring market safety [1][2]. - The 2026 work plan will follow the "two-three-five" overall work strategy, emphasizing the expansion and quality improvement of business entities and the construction of a unified market [2]. Group 2 - Key tasks for 2026 include: fostering the growth of business entities, promoting efficient resource flow, implementing quality improvements, enhancing intellectual property services, ensuring market safety, and strengthening capability support [2].

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 十点新变化——2026 年地方两会点评 事 项 截至 2 月 3 日，全国已有 29 省市召开人代会，公布 GDP 目标等全年重点工作 目标。2 月 4 日至 5 日，内蒙古、安徽将召开会议，至此 2026 年地方两会将全 部召开完毕。根据已有 29 省市情况，我们总结出以下十点变化。 主要观点 一、今年 GDP 目标：广东省时隔七年再次设置区间目标 广东、浙江等 6 省今年设置区间目标，其中广东数值为 4.5%-5.5%。从 2012 年 至今情况看，全国设置区间目标的年份只有 2016 年和 2019 年，当年分别有 4 个、2 个经济大省设置区间目标，两次的共同点在于经济第一大省广东均在列。 我们估算 29 省市 GDP 目标加权增速，今年为 5.0%，去年为 5.24%。 二、"十五五"GDP 目标：北京新疆重设年均目标，均为区间形式 北京、新疆的变化可能较为值得关注，两地重设 GDP 年均目标且均为区间形 式。"十四五"期间，北京、新疆未设置 GDP 年均目标，其中新疆的表述为"保 持在合理区间、各年度视情提出"，与全国"十四五"规划公布的要求完全一 致。今年， ...

Group 1: GDP Targets - This year, Guangdong Province has set a range target for GDP growth for the first time in seven years, with a target of 4.5%-5.5% [3][21] - A total of 15 provinces have lowered their GDP targets by 0.5 percentage points, while 12 provinces have kept their targets stable compared to last year [15][21] - The weighted average GDP growth target for 29 provinces is estimated to be 5.0%, slightly down from 5.24% last year [3][15] Group 2: Investment Trends - Major project investment growth in six economic provinces has decreased by 0.7% this year, compared to a growth of 3% last year [5][25] - Non-economic provinces like Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi have seen a significant decline in major project investment growth, with a combined decrease of 8.1% this year [5][25] - Investment in real estate, particularly in urban village and old community renovations, has shown significant declines in several provinces, such as Zhejiang and Chongqing [6][30] Group 3: Funding Sources - There are two potential improvements in investment funding: increased issuance of policy financial tools and optimization of special bond usage [7][33] - Provinces like Guangdong have committed to regular issuance of policy financial tools, indicating a potential increase in central government support [7][33] - Some provinces, including Henan and Jilin, are focusing on optimizing the use of special bonds to enhance project funding [7][33] Group 4: Investment Directions - Investment focus this year is shifting towards areas such as public welfare, new infrastructure represented by computing power, and urban renewal projects [8][36] - Provinces like Guangdong and Shandong are increasing investments in public welfare projects, with Shandong aiming to maintain 80% of fiscal spending on public welfare [8][36] - New infrastructure projects related to computing power are being prioritized in several provinces, including Guangdong and Hubei [8][36] Group 5: Industry Focus - There is an increased emphasis on AI and related technologies, with at least 27 provinces making deployments in this area [9] - Other industries receiving attention include low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and biomedicine [9] Group 6: Consumption Trends - There is a stronger focus on service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, events, inbound tourism, and new consumption trends [10] - Provinces are emphasizing the importance of consumer spending in areas such as entertainment, AI consumption, and the metaverse [10] Group 7: Ecological Construction - The focus of ecological targets has shifted from energy consumption constraints to carbon emission restrictions [11] - Local governments are concentrating on enhancing the application of new energy in the power sector [11] Group 8: Reforms - Multiple provinces have expressed intentions to integrate into the construction of a unified national market [12][10]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Direction - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which marks a shift in policy focus towards economic construction, consumption, and technological development [1][6][17] - Key adjustments in the "15th Five-Year Plan" include a renewed emphasis on balancing economic growth with safety, promoting urban-rural integration, and reforming the fiscal and tax system [1][6][8] - China's economic growth rate has decreased to around 5%, but it remains competitive compared to emerging markets like Vietnam and India, highlighting the need for a focus on maintaining reasonable growth [1][7] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Changes - Significant changes in monetary policy now include promoting stable economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations, moving away from a sole focus on inflation [2][10] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate of around 4%, with an emphasis on necessary debt levels and total expenditure [2][10] - The policy aims to optimize existing demand through measures like "trade-in" programs and removing unreasonable restrictions to stimulate consumption [2][11] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with a cooling job market and a decline in the dollar's reserve status, while the European economy faces multiple challenges, including energy crises [4][15] - Despite a 35% drop in real estate prices over five years, China's economy has shown resilience, supported by advancements in semiconductor equipment, digital economy, and artificial intelligence [4][12] - China's trade surplus is projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025, indicating a balanced trade relationship with the U.S. despite ongoing trade tensions [12][16] Group 4: Consumer and Investment Dynamics - The core policy direction for 2026 is to boost consumption, with a significant gap between service consumption in China (18% of GDP) compared to the U.S. (46%), primarily due to urban-rural disparities [4][17] - Investment pressures are evident, with fixed asset investment declining by 12%, although this figure may not accurately reflect the actual investment situation [11][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance consumer spending through urban-rural integration and regulatory relaxation, such as in the automotive and yacht sectors [17]

■农业农村部30日介绍长江十年禁渔中期评估情况：2021年到2025年，长江流域累计监测到鱼类351 种，比禁渔前增加43种，水生生物完整性指数显著提升。 财经 ■财政部30日发布数据显示，2025年，全国一般公共预算支出28.74万亿元，同比增长1%。其中，社会 保障和就业、教育、卫生健康、科学技术、节能环保等支出分别增长6.7%、3.2%、5.7%、4.8%和 6.1%，重点领域支出得到较好保障。 大事 ■中共中央政治局30日召开会议，审议《中央政治局常委会听取和研究全国人大常委会、国务院、全国 政协、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院党组工作汇报和中央书记处工作报告的综合情况报告》。中共中 央总书记习近平主持会议。 ■交通运输部30日介绍今年春运客流情况：全社会跨区域人员流动总量将创历史同期新高，预计达到95 亿人次；新能源车出行总量将创历史同期新高，预计将达到3.8亿辆次。 ■国家统计局30日发布的数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上文化及相关产业企业实现营业收入152135亿 元，比上年增长7.4%，营业收入规模实现新突破。 ■工业和信息化部30日发布数据显示，2025年，我国规模以上电子信息制造业增加值同 ...