● 本报记者 林倩 11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会。申万宏源认为，2026年将是改革与发展全面发 力的一年，2026年年中A股行情可能全面启动，科技产业趋势和我国制造业全球影响力提升将是市场主 线。 新要素和新资产 正成为经济增长的新动力 与会人士认为，2026年是"十五五"开启之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。 赵伟表示，2026年向改革要红利，可以重点关注统一大市场建设、发展新质生产力、民生保障相关改 革、财税金融体系改革、加快绿色转型等方面。 明年关注三大投资主线 申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在致辞中表示，过去依靠投资和出口为双引擎，我国经济实现快速赶超 和发展。党的十八大以来，我国经济发展进入新常态，在科创驱动下，以知识、技术、数据、算力、人 才等为代表的新要素和新资产正成为推动我国经济增长的新动力。"未来中国经济的增长不再是旧动能 的延伸，而是新要素动能的拓展，这将为资本市场投资打开全新空间。" 在申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟看来，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年或将 是党的二十届三中全会以来改革全面加速的开始。随着扩内需政策持续深 ...

● 本报记者 林倩 申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在致辞中表示，过去依靠投资和出口为双引擎，我国经济实现快速赶超 和发展。党的十八大以来，我国经济发展进入新常态，在科创驱动下，以知识、技术、数据、算力、人 才等为代表的新要素和新资产正成为推动我国经济增长的新动力。"未来中国经济的增长不再是旧动能 的延伸，而是新要素动能的拓展，这将为资本市场投资打开全新空间。" 在申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟看来，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年或将 是党的二十届三中全会以来改革全面加速的开始。随着扩内需政策持续深化，2026年名义GDP修复过程 中将带动企业盈利改善；消费需求中服务需求弹性更大，投资增速更容易"前低后高"。 从资本市场发展的角度来看，刘健认为，"十五五"规划强调坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，资本市场 作为资源配置的重要市场，在金融体系中的地位和作用将进一步提升。资本市场基础制度的改革将显著 提升市场的包容性、适应性。 2026年要向改革要红利 与会人士表示，2025年是信心走出谷底、趋势渐行渐近的一年，国内经济环境逐步变化、释放积极信 号，2026年要向改革要红利。 在赵伟看来，"十五五 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Annual Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan focused on exploring investment opportunities and market trends across various sectors, including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, and artificial intelligence [1] - The conference featured a main forum and 12 sub-forums, bringing together government officials, experts, corporate executives, and investors to discuss economic dynamics and investment strategies for the upcoming year [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan's Chief Economist Zhao Wei highlighted that 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic governance and technological self-reliance [2] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to play a crucial role in seizing opportunities in the AI industry and empowering various sectors [2][3] - Key areas for investment opportunities in A-shares include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the increasing influence of manufacturing [3] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan aims to align its services with national strategies, focusing on building a comprehensive financial service system that integrates research, investment, and investment banking to support the transformation of the real economy [4] - The company is committed to enhancing its professional service capabilities to contribute to the healthy development of the capital market and the high-quality growth of China's financial system [4]

在申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟看来，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年或将 是改革全面加速的开始。2026年名义GDP修复将带动企业盈利改善；消费需求中服务需求弹性更大，投 资增速更容易"前低后高"。 从资本市场发展的角度看，刘健认为，"十五五"规划建议强调坚持有效市场与有为政府相结合，资本市 场作为资源配置的重要市场，在金融体系中的地位和作用将进一步提升。资本市场基础制度的改革将显 著提升市场包容性、适应性。 2026年要向"改革"要红利 与会人士表示，2025年国内经济环境逐步变化、释放积极信号，2026年要向"改革"要红利。 11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会。申万宏源认为，2026年将是改革与发展全面发 力的一年；2026年年中A股行情可能全面启动，科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升是市场主线。 据介绍，申万宏源此次2026资本市场投资年会共吸引1900余人参会，518家上市公司举办800余场线下交 流会。 新要素和新资产正成为经济增长的新动力 与会人士认为，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。 申万宏源董事长刘健在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to effectively integrate industrial policy and competition policy to build a modern industrial system, moving beyond the binary debate of whether to have industrial policy or not [2][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The construction of a modern industrial system should focus on advanced manufacturing as its backbone, reflecting a deeper understanding of economic development stages [4]. - The current manufacturing sector in China accounts for approximately 30% of GDP, and there is a need to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing within the economy [4][5]. - The article highlights the issue of "premature de-manufacturing," where the domestic manufacturing share is declining, while China's global manufacturing share is increasing [5]. Group 2: Policy Coordination - The integration of industrial policy and competition policy should be based on the maturity of technology, with different focuses at various stages of industrialization [6]. - For emerging industries with unclear technological paths, competition policy should be emphasized to encourage innovation, while industrial policy can provide directional guidance [6]. - The article suggests that R&D investment should be significantly increased, with a target of 12% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, although achieving this may be challenging [7]. Group 3: Addressing "Involution Competition" - "Involution competition" is identified as a fundamental issue in building a unified market, affecting both micro and macroeconomic levels [9][10]. - The article discusses the need for unified government actions to enhance overall efficiency and facilitate the free flow of resources across regions [9]. - The emergence of platform economies is noted as a new characteristic of "involution competition," where platforms exert significant pricing power over the entire supply chain [10][11].

"改革进度的加快，酝酿着巨大的时代机遇；短期扩内需政策，或将在中长期改革框架下持续加强；时 代'红利'的广度、深度和强度，也与'改革'紧密相关。"赵伟表示，持续深化的扩内需政策有利于消费需 求筑底改善；"投资于人"政策加力、民生保障领域改革等，将助力服务消费空间持续打开。 赵伟强调，2026年向"改革"要红利，或可重点关注统一大市场建设、发展新质生产力、民生保障相关改 革、财税金融体系改革、加快绿色转型等方面。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：中国证券报·中证网 中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会，申万宏源证券 首席经济学家赵伟在演讲中表示，"十五五"时期或将是全面深化改革的攻坚突破期，2026年或将是二十 届三中全会以来"改革"全面加速的开始。伴随持续深化的扩内需政策，名义GDP修复过程中将带动企业 盈利改善；消费需求中服务需求弹性更大，投资增速更容易"前低后高"。 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the theme "Ride the Momentum," covering various sectors including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, consumption, and cyclical industries [2][3] Group 1: Economic and Technological Insights - Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted the importance of technological innovation in the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on original innovation and breakthroughs in future industries such as AI, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication [5][6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies data elements as a new driving force for economic growth, with digital content services and emotional consumption leading new consumption patterns [5][6] - Liu Jian predicts that future economic growth in China will shift from old momentum to new factor-driven momentum, creating new investment opportunities in the capital market [6] Group 2: Market Strategy and Outlook - The research team at Shenwan Hongyuan proposes a "Two-Stage Bull Market" theory, suggesting that the technology-driven bull market will reach a peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [8] - The team believes that the shift of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equity assets is still in its early stages, indicating that the A-share market's profit accumulation is undergoing a qualitative change [8] - Predictions for 2026 include significant improvements in A-share profitability, with expectations of the first effective rebound in non-profitability and double-digit growth in net profit for the first time in five years [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Bond Market Analysis - Chief Economist Zhao Wei notes that the reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize systemic and effective governance, marking 2026 as a year of comprehensive reform and development [10] - The bond market is transitioning to a new phase where "prices + capital flows" are gaining attention, with the core variable for 2026 being inflation, which will impact the market throughout the year [10]

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 经济与市场展望 251117 摘要 美国经济 2026 年上半年或略有放缓，但 AI 投资将提供支撑，下半年逐 步修复，2027 年通胀趋稳，生产率显著提升。美联储倾向鸽派，预计 降息至 3%-3.25%后观望，新任主席或更注重货币政策保增长。 美国政府采取高增长、高通胀策略化解债务，类似二战后模式，通过收 益率曲线控制压低利率，大规模财政刺激鼓励经济增长，大规模 AI 基建 投资以及持续强劲的财政刺激措施。 中国 2026-2027 年将从通缩过渡到低通胀，财政政策或下半年加码应 对房地产挑战，货币政策依赖定向工具。反内卷制度化、统一大市场建 设和房地产改革将促进经济平衡发展。 中国版房利率通过财政贴息降低按揭利率，刺激消费并维护金融稳定， 有望在 2026 年下半年推出。大幅降低按揭利率可以使租金回报率优于 按揭利率，从而改善房地产市场预期。 2026 年看好风险资产，建议做多股票，首选美股，其次是日股和欧股， 低配新兴市场。预计标普 500 指数年底达 7,800 点，年化盈利增长 15%。 预计 2026 年民生中国指数盈利增长 6%，维持 13 倍 ...

赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 （赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 2025：信心"走出谷底"，趋势"渐行渐近"。 跌宕之中，国内经济环境至少实现了三层变化。三层变化意义重大：转折一，"疤痕效应"的快速退潮，体现为居民端以人流和部分商品价格的筑底改善、 企业端以应收账款增速的快速回落为表征；转折二，中美博弈在经贸领域的攻守易势，表现为关税冲突对国内经济的影响弱化等；表征三，新阶段"供给 侧改革"框架的逐步成型，针对性更强。 宏微观"温差"，再成热议话题，需客观认识。宏微观"温差"是2022年之后的"常态"，也是外部环境复杂多变下中国经济转型的特有过程。2018年之后，国 内企业"内卷式"行为持续加剧，进而导致经济"循环"阻滞，表现为企业盈利与经济增速脱钩，居民就业与收入持续承压，地方债务压力下挤占企业现金 流，三者互相影响。 破局之策已在系统性加快推进，理性认识、拥抱机遇。"反内卷"与清账、大力发展服务业、地方化债等，即破局经济"循环"阻滞问题的妙手所在。企业 端，切实加强"反内卷"力度、恢复企业盈利能力，同时加快账款清理、恢复经营活力；居民端，大力发展服务业，提高全社会就业吸纳能 ...

Core Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," which outlines the direction for China's development over the next five years, impacting the lives of 1.4 billion people [1][2] - The session emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year" period as a critical phase in advancing Chinese-style modernization, linking it closely with the previous "14th Five-Year" plan [2][3] - The principle of "coordinating development and security" is highlighted as essential for economic and social development, indicating that security is a prerequisite for development [3][4] Economic Development - The session reiterates the focus on high-quality economic development, emphasizing economic construction as the central task and reform and innovation as fundamental drivers [2][3] - The plan aims to achieve a balance between qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, ensuring sustained economic growth while maintaining social stability [2][3] Financial Regulation - The "Suggestions" call for the modernization of the national governance system, which includes the establishment of a more modern financial regulatory framework to prevent systemic financial risks [5][6] - The focus will be on enhancing the financial system's ability to support high-quality development through improved regulatory practices and the promotion of various financial sectors [5][6] Social Welfare - The plan emphasizes the need for inclusive, foundational, and safety-net social welfare initiatives to address urgent public concerns and improve the quality of life for citizens [6][7] - Key strategies include promoting high-quality employment, improving income distribution, and addressing demographic challenges such as aging and declining birth rates [6][7] Government and Market Relations - The "Suggestions" advocate for a combination of effective markets and proactive government roles, aiming to create a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment [7][8] - The plan includes measures to enhance the confidence of private entrepreneurs and stimulate private investment, ensuring fair competition and protecting property rights [7][8] Implementation Challenges - The successful implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will depend on overcoming challenges such as balancing development and security, ensuring effective governance, and addressing resource allocation issues [9][10] - There is a need for improved coordination among government levels and sectors to facilitate policy execution and enhance social governance capabilities [9][10]