存量政策的优化是未来一段时间得重点，通过调整存量政策的形式、节奏和用途，支 撑经济增长。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 酝酿已久的新型政策性金融工具于9月底落地，市场关注后续是否还会出台增量政策，进而成为引发风 格切换的导火索。展望四季度，出台增量政策的可能性有多大？如何把握政策的节奏？ 第一，9月22日国新办新闻发布会、9月26日央行三季度货币政策例会、国庆假期《人民日报》"钟才 文"七连评是观察政策态度的三个窗口，从重要会议和官媒表述来看，短期内政策加码的诉求并不突 出。 9月22日的国新办新闻发布会并未复刻去年的"924"，核心定调是总结成就。潘行长明确指出，本次发 布会不涉及短期性调整，未来的金融改革内容将在中央统一部署后再沟通。会议强调了科创板和科技型 企业在A股市值中的占比提升，表明当前金融政策的目标更倾向于提振科技，对于短期经济的刺激和托 底，并无太多涉及。 9月26日央行第三季度货币政策例会的关键变化是，在对经济形势的表述上删除了"风险隐患较多"， 表明央行对当前经济运行较为乐观；在对货币政策的定调上，删除了"加力实施增量政策"的关键表 述，强调"抓好各项货币政策措施执行"，表明当前货币政 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In August, industrial enterprises' profits increased by 20.4% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement compared to July and reaching a year-to-date high [1] - Cumulative profits from January to August showed a reversal from the continuous decline since May, with a total profit growth of 0.9% year-on-year [2] - The rebound in industrial profits is primarily attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, along with improved supply and demand dynamics driven by "anti-involution" policies [1][2] Group 2: Policy Impact on Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a growth plan for the nonferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026 [2] - The plan aims to support high-end material innovation and green low-carbon transformation, which is expected to benefit the nonferrous metals supply chain, particularly in copper, aluminum, and lithium sectors [2] - The policy is anticipated to enhance market sentiment in related A-share sectors in the short term while promoting resource independence and industry upgrades in the long term [2] Group 3: Market Performance - On September 29, the three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.90% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.05% [3] - Non-bank financials, nonferrous metals, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.84%, 3.78%, and 3.07% respectively [3] - A total of 3,576 stocks rose while 1,657 stocks declined, indicating a positive market sentiment overall [3] Group 4: Market Activity - The market turnover reached 21,781 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day [4] - The margin trading balance reported at 24,244.58 billion, reflecting a decrease from the previous trading day [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will focus on three areas to enhance service supply quality and capacity [1] - The first area involves promoting enterprises towards "new" innovations, particularly through the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to accelerate AI applications in service consumption [1] - The second area aims to push industries towards "better" service levels by increasing the supply of high-skilled service talents through vocational education and partnerships with leading enterprises [1] - The third area focuses on making the market "active" by advancing the construction of a unified market and removing market access barriers, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises [1]

人民财讯9月17日电，国新办于9月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措施，国家 发展改革委就业收入分配和消费司司长吴越涛表示，下一步，我委将重点从三个方面，促进服务供给提 质扩容。 二是推动行业向"优"，提升服务水平。依托职业院校和龙头企业支持产教融合实训基地和公共实训基地 建设，增加高技能服务人才供给。在托育、养老、家政、旅游等重点领域实施"信用+"工程，健全守信 激励和失信惩戒机制，让消费者更放心。 三是推动市场向"活"，营造良好环境。扎实推进统一大市场建设，清理整治市场准入壁垒，为各类企业 特别是中小企业营造公平的市场准入环境。发挥好与民营企业常态化沟通交流和问题解决机制作用，持 续深入听取民营企业意见建议，帮助民营企业解决困难问题、实现健康发展。 一是推动企业向"新"，激发创新动能。深入实施"人工智能+"行动，推动人工智能在服务消费等领域加 快应用，赋能大中小各类服务企业。深化线上线下（300959）、商旅文体健多业态消费融合，鼓励企业 打造消费新场景、拓展消费新体验、挖掘消费新需求。 ...

9月17日，国家发展改革委就业收入分配和消费司司长吴越涛在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下一步将深 入实施"人工智能+"行动，推动人工智能在服务消费等领域加快应用，赋能大中小各类服务企业。深化 线上线下、商旅文体健多业态消费融合，鼓励企业打造消费新场景、拓展消费新体验、挖掘消费新需 求。扎实推进统一大市场建设，清理整治市场准入壁垒，为各类企业特别是中小企业营造公平的市场准 入环境。发挥好与民营企业常态化沟通交流和问题解决机制作用，持续深入听取民营企业意见建议，帮 助民营企业解决困难问题、实现健康发展。（中国网） ...

国家发展改革委就业收入分配和消费司司长吴越涛表示，下一步，我委将重点从三个方面，促进服务供 给提质扩容。一是推动企业向"新"，激发创新动能。深入实施"人工智能+"行动，推动人工智能在服务 消费等领域加快应用，赋能大中小各类服务企业。深化线上线下、商旅文体健多业态消费融合，鼓励企 业打造消费新场景、拓展消费新体验、挖掘消费新需求。二是推动行业向"优"，提升服务水平。依托职 业院校和龙头企业支持产教融合实训基地和公共实训基地建设，增加高技能服务人才供给。在托育、养 老、家政、旅游等重点领域实施"信用+"工程，健全守信激励和失信惩戒机制，让消费者更放心。三是 推动市场向"活"，营造良好环境。扎实推进统一大市场建设，清理整治市场准入壁垒，为各类企业特别 是中小企业营造公平的市场准入环境。发挥好与民营企业常态化沟通交流和问题解决机制作用，持续深 入听取民营企业意见建议，帮助民营企业解决困难问题、实现健康发展。 ...

9月10日，受国务院委托，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁向全国人大常委会报告今年以来国民经济和社会 发展计划执行情况。 郑栅洁在报告中介绍，从目前掌握的经济社会发展相关数据以及各方面了解的情况看，计划执行情况总 体较好。经济增长、就业、消费、外贸进出口、居民收入、基本养老保险、粮食能源生产、绿色生态、 金融等指标进展顺利。从工作成效看，主要体现在6个方面：宏观政策更加积极有为、及时发力显效； 国内需求全方位扩大；产业发展优化升级；改革开放不断深化；区域协调发展和城乡融合发展稳步推 进；民生保障等重点工作扎实有力。 在持续用力防范化解重点领域风险方面，报告要求，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，有序化解融资平 台金融债务风险，认真落实党政机关过紧日子要求。加快构建房地产发展新模式，结合城市更新稳步推 进城中村和危旧房改造，扎实有力推进"好房子"建设。有序处置金融风险，按照市场化法治化原则支持 中小银行风险处置。巩固资本市场回稳向好势头，更大力度培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本。 报告提到，以碳排放双控全面转型推动绿色低碳发展。加强生态环境保护，统筹推进美丽中国先行区建 设，落实空气质量持续改善行动计划，加强土壤污染源头防控。加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a comprehensive reform pilot for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, including nine cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, aiming to enhance the efficiency of factor allocation and promote economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Pilot Implementation - The pilot areas include cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai, focusing on six key areas: technology, land, human resources, data, capital, and environmental resources [2][4]. - The approval of the implementation plan signifies a deeper level of reform exploration granted to the Greater Bay Area, positioning it as a national benchmark for institutional innovation [2][4]. Group 2: Focus on Technology and Data - The plan prioritizes the transformation of technological achievements, emphasizing the integration of technology and capital, and aims to enhance the protection of intellectual property rights [4][5]. - Specific measures in the data sector include establishing a two-tier data market and improving public data sharing mechanisms, addressing challenges such as data ownership and cross-border data flow compliance [7][11]. Group 3: Land and Human Resource Allocation - The implementation plan proposes standardized land transfer for industrial use and a control index system for investment intensity and employment contributions [8]. - It also aims to attract high-level talent by allowing flexible policies for recruitment and compensation, promoting the flow of advanced production factors [8][13]. Group 4: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The plan includes measures to facilitate the flow of talent and resources between the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong and Macau, enhancing regional cooperation [10][12]. - The Greater Bay Area is expected to serve as a testing ground for replicable market-oriented allocation experiences that can be applied to other regions in China [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution" as a new phase of supply-side reform, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand as a core issue, leading to declining capacity utilization, falling prices, shrinking corporate profits, and increasing economic downward pressure [5][15]. Group 1: Similarities between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - Both anti-involution and supply-side reform are driven by structural supply-demand imbalances, resulting in significant declines in industrial capacity utilization. For instance, industrial capacity utilization fell from 76.8% in Q4 2013 to 72.9% in 2016 before supply-side reform, and from 77.4% in Q4 2021 to 74.0% by Q2 2025 during the anti-involution phase [5][6][13]. - Industrial prices have also seen substantial declines. During the supply-side reform period, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced negative growth for 54 consecutive months starting from March 2012. Similarly, the PPI has been in negative growth since October 2022, continuing for 34 months as of July 2025 [6][10]. - Corporate profits have declined due to falling demand and prices. In 2015, industrial profits fell by 2.3%, marking the first negative growth since 1998. In the anti-involution period, industrial profits have been in negative growth since 2022, with a 1.8% decline in the first seven months of 2025 [7][10]. - Economic downward pressure has intensified, with declining capacity utilization and industrial prices leading to reduced corporate revenues and profits, which in turn decrease investment and increase unemployment. GDP growth fell from 8.1% in Q4 2012 to 6.9% in Q4 2015 during the supply-side reform, while the growth rate has stabilized around 5% during the anti-involution period [13][19]. Group 2: Differences between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly. While both periods face demand shortages, the anti-involution phase is characterized by a more severe demand shortfall due to population decline and a downturn in the real estate market. In contrast, the supply-side reform period saw resilient demand supported by post-financial crisis recovery and real estate market upturns [16][19]. - The industry characteristics also vary. Supply-side reform primarily targeted traditional industries like steel and coal, while anti-involution encompasses a broader range of sectors, including emerging industries and platform economies. This shift indicates a new phenomenon where "involution" competition is prevalent across various industries [21][24]. - The reasons behind the two phases differ. Supply-side reform was largely a response to overcapacity resulting from stimulus policies, while anti-involution is influenced by a wider array of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, including the deep adjustment in the real estate sector and the transition to new production forces [30][32]. - The implementation paths diverge as well. Supply-side reform focused on traditional industries with administrative measures to cut capacity, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches to regulate competition and foster innovation [40][43].

Core Insights - The meeting in Guangzhou focused on analyzing the current economic situation and addressing existing challenges while aligning with national and provincial directives [2][3] - Emphasis was placed on achieving annual economic targets and enhancing the city's contribution to broader provincial and national development [3][4] Economic Strategy - The city aims to stabilize the economic foundation by integrating into the national market and leveraging various policies to support key industries such as automotive, real estate, and wholesale [3] - There is a strong focus on project construction, with an emphasis on efficient management and expedited processes to ensure timely project initiation and completion [3][4] Consumption and Trade - Initiatives to boost consumption include special actions to enhance consumer spending, particularly around significant events like the National Day and the 15th National Games [3] - The city plans to promote foreign trade by developing new business models and ensuring the successful organization of the 138th Canton Fair [3] Industrial Upgrading - The strategy includes building a modern industrial system and fostering technological innovation to enhance productivity and support the growth of specialized and leading enterprises [3][4] Safety and Stability - There is a commitment to maintaining political and economic security, improving supply chain safety, and ensuring social stability through various measures [3][5] Planning and Development - The city is focused on creating a robust "14th Five-Year" plan, seeking national and provincial support to implement major policies and projects for high-quality development [4][5]