热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 有色组 氧化铝期货盘面上涨，主力合约2605开盘于2822元/吨，收盘于2939元/吨，涨幅4.97%，持仓49.4万手， 增加6.4万手。 现货市场方面，云南电解铝厂以广西出厂价2680元/吨采购5000吨氧化铝；广西贸易商之间以2810元/吨 价格成交3000吨氧化铝。西澳以FOB310美元/吨成交3万吨氧化铝，环比上涨5美元/吨。现货市场电解铝 原料储备充足，采购积极性不高；期现商受限于库容限制采购量已接近饱和；氧化铝厂库存压力及回款 需求提货需求较高，现货市场流动性减弱。 供给端检修与复产并进，供应端并未呈现减量，且尚未出现主动减产，盘面受情绪和资金涌入拉动上涨 后，盘面冶炼利润扩大，预计短期减产概率较低，供应端依旧呈现过剩状态，社会库存持续增加，且进 口窗口打开，长期现货压力依旧。 铝土矿供应方面，几内亚雨季结束，发运量明显增加，前期停产矿山复工，远期矿端供应存保障，1季 度矿长协定价环比下调，并仍有小幅下调空间，成本端支撑难显现。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公 ...

今日国内氧化铝现货价格下跌；据长江有色网ccmn数据，12月23日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2780-2830元 之间，与前一交易日报价跌10元；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2690-2730元之间，与前一交易日报价持平； 西南地区氧化铝每吨2785-2825元之间，与前一交易日报价跌5元；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2920-2960元 之间，与前一交易日报价跌5元。 长江有色网12月23日讯，今日氧化铝震荡走强，主力月2601合约窄幅震荡，尾盘偏强收涨；截止当日 15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2601合约报2520元，涨19元，窄幅0.76%；11个合约累计成交503,529手，比 前一交易日增加59,007手，涨幅13.27%；持仓量650,562手减少9,915手，跌幅1.50%。 今日上期所氧化铝期货震荡回升，主力2601合约日间交易收涨0.76%，国内氧化铝现货价格下跌。 宏观层面，中东地缘局势再度紧张，美联储降息预期升温，美元指数下跌，股市原油全线走强，市场风 险偏好升温，驱动资金纷纷涌入风险资产。然而，氧化铝市场空头势力伺机而动，盘面涨势受到一定限 制。 短期来看，氧化铝供需持续处于过剩状态，社会库存不断累积，现金成 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：年末宏观扰动增多，22000关口再度回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 中期来看，我们依然持有对铝价趋势向上的观点，今年4季度迄今市场对于铝金属颇具想象力的定价逻辑，在2026年仍将得以延续。 2026年度平衡上看，我们目前预估： ◆ 基准情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.1%，净进口240万吨估算，预计全年约短缺12.4万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近103.7万吨，相较今年年底的累库幅度最高预计达到47万吨，略高于去年同期39.1万吨，累库压力应比较可控。 ◆ 乐观情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.6%，净进口250万吨估算，预计全年约短缺25.8万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近97.7万吨，相较今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing a shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, with prices expected to continue a weak trend in September due to increased supply and stable demand from downstream aluminum producers [1][2][4]. Supply Analysis - As of September 5, the main aluminum oxide futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, down nearly 14% from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1]. - The average price of metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the spot market was 3189.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.98 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous week [1]. - The supply of aluminum oxide remains ample, with a forecasted production of 7.7823 million tons by August 2025, an increase of 3.55% from July [1][2]. - Total aluminum oxide inventory in China reached 4.316 million tons by August 28, 2025, up 23.4 million tons from the previous month [2]. Demand Analysis - In August, the estimated consumption of aluminum oxide was 7.6428 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2]. - The demand from downstream aluminum producers remains stable, with high operating rates in the electrolytic aluminum sector, although some regions are experiencing slight adjustments in production capacity [2][3]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of continued weak pricing in September, projected to range between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase as production stabilizes and some companies resume operations after maintenance [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to be influenced more by fundamental factors, with a strong supply and weak demand scenario likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in caustic soda futures prices are influenced by the decline in coal prices and limited downstream demand for high-priced caustic soda, leading to a high-level correction in the market [1][2]. Cost Factors - The primary cost for caustic soda is electricity, with coal prices experiencing a significant drop after a two-month rebound due to supply-side constraints. As of September 1, the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal fell to 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 2% from 704 yuan/ton on August 20, marking a near three-year low [2]. - Seasonal trends indicate that electricity consumption typically peaks in mid-August, suggesting a potential decline in coal demand and further price reductions in the future [2]. Downstream Support - The caustic soda downstream market is diverse, with aluminum oxide being the largest consumer, accounting for over 30% of demand. However, increased production capacity in the aluminum oxide sector has led to oversupply, causing operational challenges and reduced profitability for producers [3][4]. - As of June 2025, the domestic aluminum oxide capacity reached 111.75 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 12.59%, with an operational capacity of 90 million tons/year, up 8.37% year-on-year [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite entering the peak consumption season, the aluminum oxide market is expected to remain oversupplied, limiting price increases and support for the caustic soda market [4]. - Non-aluminum downstream sectors, such as pulp and dyeing, have seen a slight recovery in operational rates, but high caustic soda prices have led to limited purchasing willingness, resulting in weak demand support [7]. Production Levels - Caustic soda production capacity has significantly increased in recent years, with weekly production levels remaining above historical averages despite lower operational rates earlier in the year [8]. - As of August 29, the capacity utilization rate for caustic soda plants with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 82.4%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - Planned maintenance in September may alleviate supply pressures, but the potential for delayed maintenance due to acceptable profit margins could impact future supply dynamics [9]. Price Outlook - The caustic soda futures market is expected to experience continued high-level fluctuations due to mixed factors, including weak cost support and limited downstream acceptance of high prices [9].

Summary of the Aluminum Oxide Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum oxide (alumina) market, highlighting significant supply increases and price fluctuations in 2025 [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - By mid-March 2025, the alumina industry operated at a record level of 93.6 million tons, leading to a supply surplus and significant sell-offs. However, production cuts and maintenance reduced the operating ratio below 2, indicating a return to a surplus phase when the ratio hit 1.9 [1][5]. - The total alumina supply for 2025 is projected at 91 million tons, with corresponding electrolytic aluminum demand at 44.1 million tons, resulting in an alumina demand of approximately 84.67 million tons. The annual surplus is expected to exceed 550,000 tons but remains manageable [3][17]. - **Price Fluctuations**: - Alumina prices recently rebounded due to enhanced production cut commitments across the industry, particularly from major state-owned enterprises, which tightened spot liquidity. Macroeconomic factors also contributed to this price surge [1][4][21]. - The alumina spot price fell from a peak of 5,850 yuan to a low of 2,850 yuan, reflecting a transition from high profits to losses within the industry [2]. - **Cost Increases**: - The primary driver of rising costs has been the significant increase in ore prices, which rose from 1,460 yuan per ton in 2023 to 1,900 yuan per ton, a 500 yuan increase. This cost structure varies significantly based on the ratio of domestic to imported ore and the differences between self-mined and purchased ore [7][10]. - **Production Strategies**: - In response to losses, many companies initially avoided large-scale production cuts, opting instead for increased sales to alleviate operational pressures. However, as losses mounted, a shift occurred towards strategic production halts to mitigate further financial strain [6][11]. - **Impact of Guinea Bauxite Prices**: - Fluctuations in Guinea bauxite prices, which exceeded $110 per ton but fell to around $70, have affected domestic market conditions. The long shipping cycle means that even with lower spot prices, actual usage will not occur until mid-July, complicating future pricing [8][30]. - **Future Market Outlook**: - The market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with a potential recovery in supply as new production capacities come online. The anticipated return of production in June is expected to ease current supply constraints [19][21][24]. Other Important Insights - **Non-Aluminum Demand**: - Non-aluminum consumption has increased significantly, with demand rising from 20,000 tons in January and February to 40,000 tons in March and April, indicating a structural shift in the market [15]. - **Production Recovery**: - Recent recovery in production capacity has been noted, particularly in private aluminum smelting plants in Henan and Shanxi, with 1.6 million tons of capacity restored recently [24]. - **Long-term Supply Trends**: - The industry is expected to continue facing oversupply conditions in 2025, with new projects underway that could add approximately 13 million tons of capacity. The overall supply side is projected to maintain a growth trend in the coming years [25][39]. - **Strategic Adjustments by Major Players**: - Major enterprises are making strategic production adjustments in response to financial pressures, with some opting for temporary shutdowns to optimize their financial positions [9][39]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the aluminum oxide market, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, cost factors, and strategic responses from industry players.