Group 1: Market Overview and Quotes Review - The alumina futures market showed a slight upward trend on July 7, 2025. The main contract 2509 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change of 0.20% compared to the settlement price. The trading volume was 341,853 lots, and the open interest was 252,718 lots. The trading volume of the 2509 contract increased, while the open interest decreased [2]. - The table shows the futures quotes of alumina contracts on July 7, 2025. For the alumina 2509 contract, the closing price was 3042, up 18 with a 0.20% increase, trading volume was 341,853, amplitude was 3.26%, open interest was 252,718, and the daily increase in open interest was -14,833. For the alumina 2510 contract, the closing price was 3012, up 15 with a 0.10% increase, trading volume was 37,053, amplitude was 2.43%, open interest was 73,292, and the daily increase in open interest was 2,098 [6]. Group 2: Analysis of Influencing Factors - The progress of alumina production is steadily advancing, and some previously overhauled production capacities have resumed production, keeping the operating capacity at a high level. On the cost side, although the price of bauxite has loosened to some extent, the range is limited, and the energy cost is relatively stable. Enterprises' production enthusiasm is fair, and there are no large - scale production cut plans [10]. - The current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high and stable, with no large - scale new production capacity investment plans, and the demand for alumina remains stable. However, recently, the operating rates of some small electrolytic aluminum enterprises have fluctuated due to environmental inspections or equipment maintenance, which has affected the procurement rhythm of alumina to some extent [10]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the overall supply - demand pattern of the alumina market is still relatively loose. In the short term, influenced by cost support and bullish signals in technical aspects, the price has some rebound momentum. In the long - term, as new production capacities continue to be released, if there is no significant improvement in the demand side, the price will still face downward pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in the macro - economic situation, supply - demand data, and technical indicator trends and operate cautiously [11].

专家 - 当前时点如何看待氧化铝？20250517 摘要 • 2025 年初氧化铝市场供应快速增加，至 3 月中旬全行业开工水平达 9,360 万吨，创近 20 年历史记录，氧化铝电解铝运行比值达 2.1，市场供 应明显过剩，导致大幅抛售。但随后减产和检修增加，比值回归到 2 以下， 当比值达到 1.9 时，又开始走向过剩阶段。 • 氧化铝价格近期反弹主要受全行业减产决心增强、大型央企产业链集团宣 布大面积减产导致现货流动性紧张以及宏观经济因素等多重因素影响，氧 化铝成为资金青睐对象，导致价格暴力反弹。 • 矿石成本显著增长是成本上升的主要原因，自 2023 年开始，矿石成本从 1,460 元/吨上涨至当前的 1,900 元/吨，增加了 500 元。国产矿和进口矿 的应用比例，以及自采矿和外购矿之间的差异，导致了成本结构上的显著 差异。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格波动影响国内市场，2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 2 月期间 价格超过 110 美元，但现货价格降至 70 美元左右。因船运周期长，即使 现货报价 70 美元，实际使用至少需到 7 月初或中旬，期货价格难以下调 至 2,600 元以下。 Q&A 当 ...

氧化铝价格走势研判 20250517 从三月底全行业开工水平 9,360 万吨，到目前 8,650 万吨区间，这一变化主要 源于多方面因素。三月份初期山西奥凯达铝业和森泽铝业因高价矿或自采矿不 足开始点式减产，但大型集团未有新进展。3 月下旬信发减少进口矿使用比例， 自主调整产能；4 月下旬国有集团企业在山西和河南两大四小工厂减产；5 月 第一周山西、山东和云南工厂受波及，全行业出现较大动荡。这些因素导致国 有集团企业在现货市场上购买紧张程度爆发，从而形成当前供应偏紧状态。 氧化铝生产成本上升的原因是什么？ 摘要 • 氧化铝行业经历供应过剩到偏紧的转变，主要由于 3 月底至 5 月初期间， 山西奥凯达、森泽铝业及信发等企业陆续减产，国有集团企业也调动产能， 导致现货市场供应紧张，全行业开工水平从 9,360 万吨降至 8,650 万吨。 • 氧化铝生产成本持续上升，主要受矿石结构成本波动影响。国产矿供应紧 张导致进口矿使用增加，矿石价格从 1,460 元上涨至近 2000 元。各区域 成本差异显著，云南成本最低，广西成本较高，使用进口矿的企业成本与 山东沿海地区接近。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格下降至 70 美元/ ...