Core Insights - The company reported a 21% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 176.516 billion yuan, a 1.57% increase year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in net profit is attributed to the increase in both volume and price in the primary aluminum segment, with the average domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum at 20,500 yuan per ton, up 3.78% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 17.31%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 9.80%, up 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In the third quarter alone, the gross profit margin was 18.37%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.70 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 10.31%, up 4.39 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company effectively managed its expenses, with a total expense ratio of 4.58%, down 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [2] Production Metrics - The company’s primary aluminum production increased by nearly 7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with metallurgical-grade alumina production at 13.04 million tons, a 3.74% increase year-on-year [3] - In the third quarter, the company produced 2.03 million tons of primary aluminum, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while coal production was 3.24 million tons, down 3.6% year-on-year [3] - The steady growth in core product output has provided a solid foundation for the company's performance, despite adjustments in sales volume during periods of declining alumina prices [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][33] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year net profit growth of 21% in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 176.516 billion yuan, a 1.57% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.872 billion yuan, up 20.65% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 10.716 billion yuan, an increase of 23.03% year-on-year [1][9] - The company's profitability has steadily improved, with a gross margin of 17.31% and a net margin of 9.80% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.08 percentage points and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][12] - The production of primary aluminum (including alloys) increased by 6.76% year-on-year to 6 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to the strong performance of the company [3][30] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.124 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.66% year-on-year, but a net profit of 3.801 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 90.31% year-on-year [1][9] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 270.580 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.1%, and the net profit is expected to reach 14.790 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.3% [4][5][33] Production and Operations - The company produced 13.04 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.74%, and the external sales of self-produced metallurgical alumina reached 4.91 million tons, up 2.94% year-on-year [3][30] - The company’s coal production was 9.85 million tons, showing a slight increase of 1.13% year-on-year, indicating stable operational performance across its core business segments [3][30] Profitability and Efficiency - The company has effectively controlled its operating expenses, with a total expense ratio of 4.58%, down 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating improved cost management [2][12] - The asset-liability ratio as of September 2025 was 46.38%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [2][12]

中国铝业（601600.SH）2025 年三季报点评 产销稳定，铝价上涨增厚盈利 2025 年 10 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报。25Q1-Q3 公司实现营收 1765.2 亿元，同比+1.6%， 归母净利 108.7 亿元，同比+20.6%，扣非归母净利 107.2 亿元，同比+23.0%。单季度 看，25Q3 营收 601.2 亿元，同比-4.7%，环比-0.8%，归母净利 38.0 亿元，同比+90.0%， 环比+7.6%，扣非归母净利 37.8 亿元，同比+103.1%，环比+7.9%。 ➢ 铝价上涨，Q3 毛利率同环比增加。1）量：25Q1-Q3 电解铝产量 600 万吨，同比 +6.8%，冶金级氧化铝产量 1304 万吨，同比+3.7%，煤炭产量 985 万吨，同比+1.1%； 单季度看，25Q3 电解铝产量 203 万吨，环比持平，冶金级氧化铝产量 444 万吨，环比 +7.8%，煤炭产量 324 万吨，环比-4.4%；2025 年产量目标：冶金级氧化铝产量 1681 万吨，电解铝产量 780 万吨，原煤产量 1410 万吨。2）价：25Q1-Q3 铝价 20447 元 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 176.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.87 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 60.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, while net profit for the quarter was 3.8 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 90% [1][2] - The rise in alumina and primary aluminum prices contributed to enhanced profitability, with Q3 average prices for electrolytic aluminum at 20,711 yuan/ton, up 6% year-on-year, and alumina prices at 3,165 yuan/ton, down 19% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q3 2025, the company produced 4.44 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, a 2% increase year-on-year, and 2.03 million tons of primary aluminum, also up 2% year-on-year [1] - The company’s profit per ton in the electrolytic aluminum sector was 4,125 yuan, a substantial increase of 128% year-on-year, while the alumina sector saw a profit of 292 yuan per ton, down 73% year-on-year [2] Operational Efficiency - The company has strengthened its supply chain management and established a dynamic cost control system to effectively respond to industry supply-demand adjustments and aluminum price fluctuations [2] - Resource security has improved, with mining and shipping volumes of overseas bauxite increasing by 27.9% and 55.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The company has implemented comprehensive reforms and digital transformation initiatives, resulting in significant improvements in management and labor efficiency [3] Strategic Developments - The company accelerated the upgrade of traditional industries, achieving key breakthroughs in major projects, including the full production of a 600 kA electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai and the full capacity grid connection of a 1.2 million kW green electricity project in Baotou [3] - The company is recognized for its advancements in smart manufacturing, with facilities being selected for national excellence in smart factories and 5G factory listings [3] Investment Outlook - As a leading player in the global aluminum industry, the company’s integrated layout across the aluminum value chain highlights its strong resource and cost advantages [3] - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 14.4 billion, 16.2 billion, and 18.4 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.2, 10.0, and 8.8 times [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has been active since 2025, with notable listings in the biopharmaceutical, technology, and consumer sectors, as well as a significant increase in resource companies going public [1][2] - Zijin Gold International, a spin-off from Zijin Mining Group, is set to launch its IPO on September 29, 2025, with an expected fundraising of approximately HKD 249.84 billion, making it the second-largest IPO in Hong Kong this year [2][3] - The funds raised by Zijin Gold International will be used for upgrading existing mines, acquiring the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, general corporate purposes, and exploration activities [2][3] Group 2 - Since 2025, three resource companies have successfully listed in Hong Kong: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Nanshan Aluminum International, and Jiexin International Resources, each with unique listing strategies [3][4] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining adopted a "A-share first, then H-share" model, aiming to enhance its international presence and attract global investment [3][5] - Nanshan Aluminum International focuses on developing and procuring bauxite and coal resources in Indonesia, while Jiexin International Resources is notable for being dual-listed in both Hong Kong and Kazakhstan [3][4] Group 3 - Several resource companies, including Jinxun Co., Zhihui Mining, and Jinyan High-tech, are currently in the process of seeking IPOs in Hong Kong, primarily to develop international markets and acquire overseas projects [4][5] - The trend indicates a growing preference for the Hong Kong capital market among resource companies due to its internationalization and diverse investor base [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing a shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, with prices expected to continue a weak trend in September due to increased supply and stable demand from downstream aluminum producers [1][2][4]. Supply Analysis - As of September 5, the main aluminum oxide futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, down nearly 14% from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1]. - The average price of metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the spot market was 3189.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.98 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous week [1]. - The supply of aluminum oxide remains ample, with a forecasted production of 7.7823 million tons by August 2025, an increase of 3.55% from July [1][2]. - Total aluminum oxide inventory in China reached 4.316 million tons by August 28, 2025, up 23.4 million tons from the previous month [2]. Demand Analysis - In August, the estimated consumption of aluminum oxide was 7.6428 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2]. - The demand from downstream aluminum producers remains stable, with high operating rates in the electrolytic aluminum sector, although some regions are experiencing slight adjustments in production capacity [2][3]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of continued weak pricing in September, projected to range between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase as production stabilizes and some companies resume operations after maintenance [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to be influenced more by fundamental factors, with a strong supply and weak demand scenario likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) has launched a special action plan for 2025 aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency while returning value to shareholders, aligning with various governmental guidelines and market initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Work Goals - The company aims to produce 16.81 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 4.46 million tons of fine alumina, 7.8 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), 14.1 million tons of raw coal, and generate 41.2 billion kWh of electricity by 2025 [2]. - The strategic focus includes building a world-class aluminum company through resource mining, technological innovation, advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Performance in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved production of 8.6 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 3.97 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 6.61 million tons of coal, representing year-on-year increases of 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% respectively [3]. - The company reported revenue of 116.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.12%, and a total profit of 13.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.1 billion yuan, marking increases of 2.16% and 0.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Work Measures - The company plans to enhance production operations, upgrade management, and drive technological innovation to improve profitability and value creation [4][5]. - Key initiatives include rigorous cost control, project implementation, and optimizing traditional industry structures to support sustainable development [4][5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Recognition - The company will improve information disclosure to enhance transparency and maintain high-quality communication with investors [5][6]. - Strengthening investor relations through multiple engagement channels and enhancing shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks are also prioritized [5][6]. Group 5: ESG and Value Management - The company aims to lead in green and sustainable development within the aluminum industry by enhancing its ESG governance and performance [6]. - A focus on value management will be established to improve investment value and shareholder returns through various strategic tools [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.12%, with a net profit of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-over-year [2]. - The report highlights that the high aluminum prices are expected to support stable growth in the company's performance in the future [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with a slight decrease of 0.49 percentage points year-over-year, while Q2 gross margin improved to 17.60%, up 1.74 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The report notes a significant reduction in power costs due to falling coal prices, which is expected to enhance profits [4]. - The outlook for aluminum prices in H2 2025 is optimistic, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from sectors like solar energy and automotive [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-over-year but an increase of 8.65% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, down 26.18% year-over-year and slightly down 0.13% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with Q2 showing an improvement to 17.60% [3]. - The report attributes the increase in gross margin to lower energy and alumina raw material costs [3]. Production and Capacity - The company aims for a total alumina production of 16.81 million tons and aluminum production of 7.8 million tons for the year [4]. - The self-sufficiency rate for alumina ore significantly increased by 6% to a five-year high [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.11 billion yuan, which represents about 30% of its net profit for H1 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 15.06 billion yuan, 15.66 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively [6]. - The target price for the company is set at 10.56 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 times for 2025 [6].

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]