证券研究报告 中国铝业 (2600 HK/601600 CH) 港股通 铝价高位，看好公司业绩未来稳增 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地/中国香港 基本金属及加工 中国铝业发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 1163.92 亿元（yoy+5.12%）， 归母净利 70.71 亿元（yoy+0.81%），扣非净利 69.41 亿元（yoy+1.23%）。 其中 Q2 实现营收 606.09 亿元（yoy-1.87%，qoq+8.65%），归母净利 35.33 亿元（yoy-26.18%，qoq-0.13%）。电解铝产能天花板约束下，铝价维持高 位，公司盈利稳中有增，维持公司买入评级。 公司二季度毛利率环比上升 盈利方面，公司 25H1 毛利率 16.76%，同比-0.49pct，其中 25Q2 毛利率 17.60%，环比+1.74pct，二季度毛利率上升我们推测主要与公司能源成本 及氧化铝原料成本下降有关。费用方面，公司上半年合计期间费用率为 4.44%，同比-0.66pct，其中 25Q2 合计期间费用率为 4.97%，环比+1.11pct， 主要由于二季度研发费用率 1.6 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]

Group 1 - The booking volume for container transport from China to the US surged nearly 300% after the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, with an average of 21,530 standard containers booked in the week ending May 14, up from 5,709 containers in the week ending May 5 [1] - Rebar production in China increased to 2.2653 million tons, a rise of 30,000 tons or 1.34% from the previous week, while apparent demand rose by 460,000 tons or 21.69% to 2.6029 million tons [1] - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record soybean yield of 66.3 bags per hectare for the 2024/2025 season, exceeding recent averages by 14 bags [1] Group 2 - The expected biodiesel blending obligation in the US is projected to be between 4.6 to 4.8 billion gallons, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallons [2] - Brazil's soybean exports are forecasted to reach 3.9898 million tons for the week of May 11 to May 17, up from 3.1062 million tons the previous week [2] - Approximately 17% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, an increase from 15% the previous week, while 22% of corn planting areas are affected, up from 20% [2] Group 3 - The float glass industry in China is experiencing a supply contraction, with an average operating rate of 75%, down 0.24% week-on-week, and production falling to 1.0917 million tons, the lowest in two and a half months [3] - The total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10.9222 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8.412 million tons per year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, driven by higher production and sales of aluminum products [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 55.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.95% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.538 billion yuan, up 58.78% year-on-year [1] - Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.444 billion yuan, reflecting a 57.94% increase year-on-year [1] Production and Sales - The company achieved a metallurgical-grade alumina production of 4.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.41% [2] - Fine alumina production reached 950,000 tons, up 6.74% year-on-year [2] - The company sold 1.68 million tons of self-produced metallurgical alumina, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [2] - Raw aluminum (including aluminum alloys) production was 1.94 million tons, an 8.99% increase year-on-year [2] - The company sold 1.90 million tons of self-produced raw aluminum (including alloys), a 7.95% increase year-on-year [2] - Coal production reached 3.22 million tons, up 11.81% year-on-year [2] Pricing Trends - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Chinese market was 20,429 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% [2] - The average price of alumina was 4,116 yuan/ton, up 21.83% year-on-year [2] - The average price of bauxite in Guangxi was 510 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30.77% year-on-year increase [2] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 6.260 billion yuan, a 75.06% increase year-on-year [2] - The asset-liability ratio reached 48.10%, the lowest level in nearly a decade [2] Strategic Developments - The company optimized its industrial chain layout with the commissioning of the Guangxi Huasheng and Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III projects [3] - In 2024, the company added 73.55 million tons of new resource capacity [3] - The Guangxi Huasheng Phase II alumina project and Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III electrolytic aluminum project were fully operational [3] Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 227.666 billion, 234.656 billion, and 239.746 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same years are 11.347 billion, 11.627 billion, and 12.093 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.8, 9.6, and 9.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4] Investment Outlook - The company, as a leading player in the domestic aluminum industry, is expected to benefit from high electrolytic aluminum prices, maintaining a "buy" investment rating [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Events - On March 25, 21 investment and financing events were disclosed in domestic and foreign venture capital markets, including 13 domestic and 8 foreign enterprises, with a total financing of about 8.088 billion yuan [1] - On March 24, the first phase of the "Hangtou Zhengling Shuangdongjian Low - altitude Economy Industry Investment Fund" jointly initiated by Chengdu Eastern New Area, Shuangliu District, and Jianyang City was in place, targeting the low - altitude economy and focusing on eVTOL整机 enterprises [1] - On March 25, Qi'an Investment completed a new - phase fund with a first - closing scale of 300 million yuan, investing in network, data, AI, national defense, and quantum security technologies [2][3] - On March 25, Shanghai launched the second - phase industrial transformation and upgrading fund (total scale of 5 billion yuan) and the state - owned asset M&A fund matrix (total scale over 5 billion yuan) [4] 2. Large - scale Financing - On March 25, Xinghang Internet completed a several - hundred - million - yuan Series A financing for R & D and global network expansion in aviation satellite communication [5] - On March 25, ELU.AI completed a several - hundred - million - yuan Pre - A financing for strengthening AI decision - making systems and internationalization [6] - On March 25, Changjin Photonics completed a strategic financing of over 100 million yuan for technology optimization and production capacity expansion [7] 3. Global IPOs - On March 25, Shengke Nano listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board, providing semiconductor testing services [8] - On March 25, Nanshan Aluminum International listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Main Board, planning to expand alumina production capacity from 2 million tons to 4 million tons [9] 4. Policy Focus - On March 24, Guangdong issued a three - year transportation development plan, aiming to build a modern transportation network by 2027 and achieve specific traffic and logistics circles [10][11]