1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, but geopolitical conflicts support the market sentiment. The cost of ethylene - based raw materials rises, and downstream开工 is recovering. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes, export order execution, and ethylene - based enterprise load changes [3] - Caustic soda's supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The export inquiry of domestic chlor - alkali products has increased, but there are concerns about future demand. Attention should be paid to export order execution, the conversion of 32% alkali to 50% alkali, and the price stability of 32% alkali. The futures price is higher than the spot price, leading to increased volatility [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 5466 yuan/ton (+190), the East China basis is 234 yuan/ton (+460), and the South China basis is 384 yuan/ton (+610) [1] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5700 yuan/ton (+650), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+800) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2705 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 133 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 159 yuan/ton (+279), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 283 yuan/ton (- 294), and the PVC export profit is - 24.7 dollars/ton (- 21.5) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory is 45.8 tons (- 4.6), the social inventory is 63.6 tons (+2.0), the calcium carbide - based operation rate is 80.41% (- 1.36%), the ethylene - based operation rate is 77.24% (- 3.16%), and the overall operation rate is 79.42% (- 1.93%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 89.0 tons (+11.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2442 yuan/ton (+94), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 395 yuan/ton (- 28) [1] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 655 yuan/ton (+21), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1110 yuan/ton (+20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1039 yuan/ton (+66), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 563.7 yuan/ton (+65.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 1006.66 yuan/ton (+775.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 866.79 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 55.00 tons (+0.91), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.80 tons (- 0.60), and the operation rate is 86.40% (+1.50%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 82.62% (- 0.10%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 42.46% (+18.12%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 90.09% (+1.66%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Negative factors: Since April 1st, the export tax rebate for PVC has been cancelled. India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the long - term export outlook is weak. The domestic social inventory is accumulating, and the spot supply pressure after the cancellation of March warehouse receipts is increasing [3] - Positive factors: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a reduction in the operation of overseas cracking plants, tightening the supply of ethylene - based PVC raw materials. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and downstream开工 is recovering. There are expectations of spring maintenance and positive macro expectations during the Two Sessions [3] Caustic Soda - Positive factors: Geopolitical conflicts have led to an expected reduction in the operation of overseas chlor - alkali plants, increasing the export inquiry of domestic chlor - alkali products. The non - aluminum industry's开工 has recovered after the festival, increasing the rigid procurement. The operation of liquid chlorine downstream has recovered, and the price has increased, reducing the cost support for caustic soda [3] - Negative factors: The alumina plant's partial maintenance has led to a slight decrease in operation, and the anti - involution in the alumina industry has dragged down the long - term demand for caustic soda. The production progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and there is inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The caustic soda industry faces supply - demand pressure, with high - level开工率 in Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises, high inventory, and weak demand support. The price is expected to run weakly [2]. - The PVC market is in an oversupply situation. The supply pressure remains high, the demand is sluggish, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply changes, and demand trends. The spot price has also shown instability, and the market is concerned about the future supply and demand balance [8]. - **Supply**: The industry开工率 is at a high level, and the inventory pressure of caustic soda plants is continuously increasing. As of Thursday, the national weighted average开工负荷 rate was 89.69%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week, while Shandong's开工率 was 91.66%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory in East China and Shandong has increased [21][27]. - **Demand**: The main downstream alumina industry is expected to have more production capacity put into operation in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. The new production capacity is estimated to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year [29][32]. - **Export**: The export of caustic soda weakened in October, and the estimated export profit declined [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC futures price has been in a bottom - shock pattern, and the spot price has continued to weaken. The core contradiction is the lack of substantial improvement in supply and demand [65][66]. - **Profit**: The industry profit of PVC has been continuously deteriorating, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method [71]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the PVC industry has rebounded as some maintenance enterprises have resumed production. This week, the overall开工 load rate of PVC powder was 78.85%, a 1.37 - percentage - point increase from last week [81][87]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [95][96]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has decreased slightly, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [103]. - **Export**: In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The import volume in October was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton, and the cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, mid - to long - term, alumina profit is worrying due to over - expansion, demand for caustic soda is insufficient, and new production capacity is being launched, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, the supply side is in the concentrated maintenance stage, pre - holiday alumina demand has improved, and the spot price has increased, with the futures price also strengthening after the holiday. [2] - For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is prominent, domestic demand is weak due to the weak real - estate chain, exports are supported in the first quarter but mostly through price cuts. After the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the terminal demand will be weak during the rainy season. The BIS extension to June may lead to an early export boom, and if it is finally implemented, it will have a negative impact on PVC. [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: Macro turned weak, caustic soda operation rate was higher year - on - year, and the liquid caustic soda plant inventory stopped decreasing weekly. The August contract repaired the basis, and the futures price dropped rapidly. The spot market was in a game, and there were concerns about the supply return and weakening demand. [6] - **Profit**: The current integrated profit of caustic soda is at a normal level in the same period. [12] - **Supply**: Maintenance is gradually concentrated, the operation rate is decreasing, and caustic soda plants are seasonally destocking. As of May 8, the national average operation rate was 87.47%, up 1.14% from last week, while the Shandong region's operation rate was 89.24%, down 0.99% from the previous week. [17][23] - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with 150,000 tons of new demand concentrated from April to June. [28] - **Alumina Profit and Operation Rate**: Alumina profit has recently recovered but is still in the red. As of May 8, the SMM alumina industry profit was estimated at - 60 yuan/ton. The operation rate has been declining, and there is limited demand for caustic soda in the medium term. [35] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the alumina price. [36] - **Non - aluminum Downstream**: The non - aluminum downstream industries are fragmented, and the impact of tariffs should be noted. [46] - **Export**: The theoretical export profit of caustic soda is at a low level. [53] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Market Situation**: The 09 contract is mainly trading on expectations driven by real - estate, maintenance, and export expectations. The market sentiment was hot, but then the futures price declined due to weak supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere. [60] - **Profit**: The overall industry profit of PVC is low. [66] - **Supply**: Seasonal maintenance is concentrated, and the operation rate continues to decline. In March 2025, PVC powder production was 2.04205 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04% and a year - on - year increase of 0.77%. As of April 24, the overall operation rate was 75.67%. [82] - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector has a negative impact on demand. After the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the performance of hard products is average, and that of soft products is relatively better, but domestic demand has not improved significantly. [91] - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area of real - estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively. [92] - **Inventory**: There was a small seasonal inventory increase during the May Day holiday, and the year - on - year inventory pressure is limited. [99] - **External Market**: The Asian PVC market price was stable weekly. The CFR China price was 700 US dollars/ton, Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, and CFR India was 700 US dollars/ton. [118] - **Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products, especially floor coverings. The BIS extension to June may have a negative impact on PVC if it is finally implemented. [117][118]