Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The EG market continued to accumulate inventory this week. The production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton. The domestic supply load of ethylene glycol has risen to over 70%, and the import pressure will ease after February. The downstream demand is weakening, and the polyester load has declined [1][2] - The current price is not high, but the downstream implicit inventory has reached a high level, and the inventory at the port is rising. The pressure of new production is large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still large, so the rebound space is limited [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3846 yuan/ton, with a change of - 33 yuan/ton (- 0.85%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3698 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.40%), and the spot basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton (a net increase of 1 dollar/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton (a net increase of 24 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the given text Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The weaving orders have weakened marginally, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has declined due to weakened profitability [2] Inventory Data - As of January 8, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from Monday. According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 844,000 tons (a net increase of 25,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 645,000 tons (a net increase of 28,000 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and inventory accumulation at the main ports is expected to continue [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand from the downstream of pure benzene is weak, dragging down the market. The fundamentals of pure benzene are still weak, with high port inventories and low downstream demand. The recovery of styrene's maintenance is slow, and the downstream demand in the off - season is also facing challenges [1][2] - The styrene port inventory has been consolidating, and the inventory replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled. The downstream industries of styrene, such as EPS, PS, and ABS, have different operating conditions, with EPS facing a decline in operating rate and ABS having high inventory pressure [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main contract basis is - 138 yuan/ton (- 22), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 180 yuan/ton (+ 20 yuan/ton). For styrene, the main contract basis is 64 yuan/ton (- 57 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - In pure benzene downstream, caprolactam production profit is - 445 yuan/ton (- 80), phenol - acetone production profit is - 902 yuan/ton (- 25), aniline production profit is 845 yuan/ton (- 12), and adipic acid production profit is - 666 yuan/ton (- 5). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is 141 yuan/ton (+ 8 yuan/ton), but it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 31.80 million tons (+ 1.80 million tons), and its operating rate remains low. Styrene's East China port inventory is 132,300 tons (- 6,500 tons), East China commercial inventory is 77,300 tons (- 6,000 tons), and the operating rate is 70.2% (- 0.5%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 44 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (- 65 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 1,011 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 43.64% (- 8.92%), PS operating rate is 60.40% (+ 1.80%), ABS operating rate is 69.90% (+ 0.50%) [1][2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam operating rate is 75.52% (+ 1.47%), phenol operating rate is 81.00% (+ 2.50%), aniline operating rate is 59.81% (- 3.17%), adipic acid operating rate is 68.20% (+ 4.60%) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "strong in production areas, weak in sales areas." The supply side is supported by high - volume and high - premium state reserve auctions, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among traders and tight market supply. The demand side is weak, with processing enterprises having low purchasing willingness. The future market trend depends on the game between supply - side hoarding sentiment and demand - side actual purchasing power [2] - The peanut market has an increasing domestic supply. As the New Year's Day approaches, the trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast production area has improved slightly, with prices showing a stable - to - strong trend. However, the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading of common peanuts in Henan has slowed down, with prices showing a stable - to - weak trend. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking trends [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract yesterday was 4224.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.64%. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 76, a change of - 8 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] Market Information - Recently, the Northeast soybean market has received policy support, and the active state reserve auctions have boosted market sentiment. The actual downstream demand is still flat, and the price is generally stable. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract fluctuated upward. The supply - demand in the southern market is at a low level, and the price is generally stable. The state reserve auctions have strengthened the price - holding sentiment in production areas, resulting in tight market supply. The demand side is weak, and it is difficult to drive the market continuously [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7968.00 yuan/ton, a change of +26.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.33%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8045.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.24%. The spot basis was PK03 - 968.00, a change of - 26.00 from the previous day, an increase of +2.76% [3] Market Information - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was 4.03 yuan/jin, showing a stable - to - rising trend. The prices of different peanut varieties in different regions and the procurement prices of oil mills are provided [3] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated upward. The domestic peanut supply has been increasing. The trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast has improved slightly, while the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading in Henan has slowed down [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for the pig industry: Cautiously bearish [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Pig prices are oscillating strongly with a decline in the north and an increase in the national average price. The supply is shrinking at the end of the year, and bad weather and holiday consumption support the price. The secondary fattening sentiment slows down after the price rises. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [2] - Egg spot prices have stopped rising and started to fall, mainly concentrated in Hebei. The boost from New Year's Day consumption is limited, and the sufficient market capacity may still put pressure on egg prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Categories Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,790 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: Henan's outer three - yuan live pig price was 12.55 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg; Jiangsu's was 12.84 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg; Sichuan's was 12.65 yuan/kg, unchanged. The national average wholesale price of pork was 17.73 yuan/kg, up 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - Pig prices are oscillating strongly with a stable and rising national average. Supply is shrinking at the end of the year, and bad weather may hinder slaughter. Holiday consumption boosts the slaughter volume, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs widens, which is beneficial to price increases. The secondary fattening sentiment slows down [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 2,938 yuan/500 kg, down 3 yuan or 0.10% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: Liaoning's egg spot price was 2.84 yuan/jin, unchanged; Shandong's was 3.10 yuan/jin, unchanged; Hebei's was 2.76 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan [3] - Inventory: On December 30, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.31 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - Egg spot prices have stopped rising and started to fall, mainly in Hebei. The boost from New Year's Day consumption is limited, and the end of pre - festival stocking and sufficient market capacity may put pressure on prices [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market has shown a pattern of weak supply and demand, and this pattern may not change significantly in September. Against the backdrop of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the lead price may maintain a somewhat stronger oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between RMB 16,300/ton and RMB 17,200/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.36/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by RMB 25/ton to RMB 16,775/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -RMB 35.00/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by RMB 25/ton to RMB 16,775/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by RMB 50/ton to RMB 16,800/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by RMB 25/ton to RMB 16,800/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -RMB 25/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at RMB 10,050/ton, RMB 10,100/ton, and RMB 10,400/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at RMB 16,920/ton and closed at RMB 16,930/ton, up RMB 35/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,476 lots, a decrease of 10,182 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,701 lots, an increase of 817 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between RMB 16,885/ton and RMB 16,940/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at RMB 16,895/ton and closed at RMB 16,820/ton, a 0.56% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On September 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of September 9, the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, a decrease of 5,075 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Conditions and Transactions - The SMM 1 lead price increased by RMB 25/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted a premium of RMB 0 - 20/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, or a discount of RMB 130 - 110/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of RMB 50/ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and traders quoted a discount of RMB 200 - 180/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. Some non-delivery brands were negotiated down to a discount of RMB 80/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. In the Anhui and Jiangxi regions, holders quoted a discount of RMB 90/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. The lead futures continued a slight upward trend, but the market had relatively sufficient supply, downstream buyers were generally cautious and observing, and overall market transactions were light [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral view. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between RMB 16,300/ton and RMB 17,200/ton [3] - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]