库存方面：2025-09-09，SMM铅锭库存总量为6.8万吨，较上周同期变化0.16万吨。截止9月9日，LME铅库存为239325 吨，较上一交易日变化-5075吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-10 流通货源相对充足 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-09，LME铅现货升水为-43.36美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至16775元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-09，沪铅主力合约开于16920元/吨，收于16930元/吨，较前一交易日变化35元/吨，全天交易日 成交3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]