纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-01-07 纯苯下游需求偏弱拖累 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-138元/吨（-22）。纯苯港口库存31.80万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费144美元/ 吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费135美元/吨（-1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差162.8美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-180元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-445元/吨（-80），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（-25），苯胺生产利润845元/吨（-12）， 己二酸生产利润-666元/吨（-5）。己内酰胺开工率75.52%（+1.47%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 59.81%（-3.17%），己二酸开工率68.20%（+4.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差64元/吨（-57元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润141元/吨（+8元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存132300吨（-6500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存77300吨（-6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.2%（-0.5% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "strong in production areas, weak in sales areas." The supply side is supported by high - volume and high - premium state reserve auctions, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among traders and tight market supply. The demand side is weak, with processing enterprises having low purchasing willingness. The future market trend depends on the game between supply - side hoarding sentiment and demand - side actual purchasing power [2] - The peanut market has an increasing domestic supply. As the New Year's Day approaches, the trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast production area has improved slightly, with prices showing a stable - to - strong trend. However, the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading of common peanuts in Henan has slowed down, with prices showing a stable - to - weak trend. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking trends [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract yesterday was 4224.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.64%. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 76, a change of - 8 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] Market Information - Recently, the Northeast soybean market has received policy support, and the active state reserve auctions have boosted market sentiment. The actual downstream demand is still flat, and the price is generally stable. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract fluctuated upward. The supply - demand in the southern market is at a low level, and the price is generally stable. The state reserve auctions have strengthened the price - holding sentiment in production areas, resulting in tight market supply. The demand side is weak, and it is difficult to drive the market continuously [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7968.00 yuan/ton, a change of +26.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.33%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8045.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.24%. The spot basis was PK03 - 968.00, a change of - 26.00 from the previous day, an increase of +2.76% [3] Market Information - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was 4.03 yuan/jin, showing a stable - to - rising trend. The prices of different peanut varieties in different regions and the procurement prices of oil mills are provided [3] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated upward. The domestic peanut supply has been increasing. The trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast has improved slightly, while the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading in Henan has slowed down [3][4]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-31 年前出栏缩量，猪价震荡偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11790元/吨，较前交易日变动+75.00元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+760，较前交易日变动+5；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.84元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1050，较前交易日变动-135；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+860，较前交易日变动-75。 据农业农村部监测，12月30日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.14，比昨天下降0.52个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为131.86，比昨天下降0.61个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.73元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；牛肉65.97 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉63.23元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋7.41元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；白条鸡17.81 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%。 市场分 ...

库存方面：2025-09-09，SMM铅锭库存总量为6.8万吨，较上周同期变化0.16万吨。截止9月9日，LME铅库存为239325 吨，较上一交易日变化-5075吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-10 流通货源相对充足 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-09，LME铅现货升水为-43.36美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至16775元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-09，沪铅主力合约开于16920元/吨，收于16930元/吨，较前一交易日变化35元/吨，全天交易日 成交3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]