Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Huaxin Cement, with a target price of 21.41 CNY per share based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [5][19]. Core Views - The company's dual strategy of "internationalization" and "cement integration" is expected to drive cyclical growth and open up long-term growth potential. Revenue is projected to reach 35.5 billion CNY in 2025, with net profit expected to be 2.8 billion CNY [1][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huaxin Cement is a century-old cement manufacturer and a leader in overseas expansion, ranking sixth in domestic clinker capacity and third in overseas clinker capacity as of 2024. The company has a strong presence in Africa and aims for a mid-term overseas capacity target of 50 million tons [2][26]. Overseas Business - The company leads in the number of overseas layout points in China, with significant growth potential in Africa due to low urbanization rates and per capita cement consumption. The overseas revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 37.3% [2][12]. Domestic Business - As a leader in the central China cement market, Huaxin Cement benefits from strong demand in regions like Hubei and Tibet. The company is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms that will eliminate outdated capacity, with a significant increase in aggregate production and profitability [3][12]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.5 billion CNY, 38 billion CNY, and 40.4 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.8 billion CNY, 3.2 billion CNY, and 3.6 billion CNY respectively. The gross margin is expected to improve from 27% to 28% over the same period [1][15]. Key Assumptions - The report outlines key assumptions for revenue growth in cement, concrete, and aggregate businesses, with expected declines in cement sales gradually narrowing from 5% in 2025 to 3% in 2027. The overseas cement sales are expected to grow at rates of 25%, 20%, and 15% from 2025 to 2027 [12][13][14]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the fragmented competitive landscape in the African cement market, where Huaxin Cement's shareholder, Holcim Group, holds a significant market share. The company is well-positioned to expand its market share in Africa through strategic acquisitions [2][19].

【核心结论】公司"国际化"与"水泥一体化"战略双轮驱动，构筑周期+成长属性，打开长期增长天花 板。我们预测公司2025-2027 年实现营业收入355/380/404 亿元，实现归母净利润28/32/36 亿元。参照可 比公司2025 年一致预期PE 均值为16.2 倍，给予公司25 年16 倍PE，对应目标价21.41 元/股，首次覆盖 给予"买入"评级。 【主要逻辑】 2）国内业务：水泥主业角度，公司为华中地区水泥龙头，区位优势明显。需求端布局地湖北、西藏水 泥产量增速较高、需求较好；供给端水泥反内卷推动落后产能出清，且公司严格按批复产能生产，限制 超产政策对产量影响较小，有望率先受益于供给格局改善。骨料角度，公司骨料产能全国第一且具备先 发优势，25H1 销量同比+6.3%，远高行业水平；吨成本持续下降，盈利能力对比同业主要上市公司领 先，25H1 骨料毛利占比达36.6%，高于收入占比（17.22%）。 风险提示：海外经营风险；下游市场需求加速下滑风险；政策落地执行不及预期风险；区域协同不佳风 险；原材料价格超预期风险。 公司是百年老牌水泥制造商、水泥出海龙头，2024 年国内熟料产能全国第六、海外熟 ...