公司点评 | 海螺水泥 需求承压导致 Q3 收入降幅扩大，但业绩仍彰显韧性 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 04 日 海螺水泥（600585.SH）2025 年三季报点评 事件：公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收 612.98 亿元，同比-10.06%；归母净利润 63.05 亿元，同比+21.28%；扣非归母净利润 59.37 亿元，同比+21.69%。其中 Q3 单季实现营 收 200.06 亿元，同比-11.42%；归母净利润 19.37 亿元，同比+3.41%；扣非归母净利润 17.39 亿元，同比+2.65%。 需求承压导致 Q3 收入降幅扩大，但利润仍同比增长，彰显龙头经营韧性。据数字水泥 网，25 年来水泥需求持续疲软，Q1、Q2、Q3 全国水泥产量分别同比-1.43%、-5.7%、 -6.8%，降幅逐季扩大；价格层面，25 年 1-9 月全国高标水泥市场均价为 372 元/吨，同 比-0.5%，8 月份水泥价格创近年来新低的 341 元/吨。行业需求承压、价格下行的背景下， 公司经营压力增大，分季度看，25 年 Q1、Q2、Q3 公司营收分别为 190.51、222.40、 200.06 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with current prices at 24.16 CNY and 22.2 HKD respectively [1]. Core Views - The report suggests that the bottom of the profit cycle for the company may have been reached in 2024, with expectations for profit recovery in 2025. The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 10.2 billion CNY in 2025, marking a 19% increase from previous estimates [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 91 billion CNY, a decrease of 35.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.7 billion CNY, down 26.2% [5][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.75 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 51% [5]. Cement Business - The cement and clinker business generated revenues of 65.8 billion CNY in 2024, a decline of 16% year-on-year, with sales volume at 26.8 million tons, down 6% [6]. - The average selling price for cement was 246 CNY per ton, a decrease of 10% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for the cement business was approximately 23.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the demand for cement is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a narrowing decline in demand anticipated [7]. - The report highlights that the price decline in the cement industry may have reached a bottom, with a recovery in profitability expected in 2025 [11]. Concrete and Aggregate Business - The concrete business achieved revenues of 2.67 billion CNY in 2024, up 19% year-on-year, while the aggregate business reported revenues of 4.69 billion CNY, an increase of 21% [8]. Capacity and Expansion - The company increased its clinker capacity by 2.3 million tons and cement capacity by 8 million tons in 2024, with significant expansions in aggregate and concrete production capacity as well [9]. Future Projections - For 2025, the company aims to maintain cement and clinker sales volume at 26.8 million tons, with capital expenditures projected at 11.98 billion CNY [10].