Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance despite a significant decline in revenue due to weak demand, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 10.06% for the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit increased by 21.28% [1][2] - The cement industry has faced continuous demand pressure, with national cement production declining by 1.43%, 5.7%, and 6.8% year-on-year in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, leading to a further drop in prices [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from policies aimed at tightening supply in the cement industry, which may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 612.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 63.05 billion yuan, an increase of 21.28% [1][6] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 200.06 billion yuan, down 11.42% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 3.41% to 19.37 billion yuan [1][2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 improved by 4.76 percentage points to 24.30%, while the net profit margin increased by 2.76 percentage points to 10.45% [3] - In Q3, the gross margin was 22.44%, showing a decline from the previous quarter but an increase year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 87.94 billion yuan, 105.86 billion yuan, and 125.15 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 2.00, and 2.36 yuan per share [4] - The company is expected to maintain its leadership position in the industry, benefiting from cost and scale advantages even during periods of declining demand [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with current prices at 24.16 CNY and 22.2 HKD respectively [1]. Core Views - The report suggests that the bottom of the profit cycle for the company may have been reached in 2024, with expectations for profit recovery in 2025. The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 10.2 billion CNY in 2025, marking a 19% increase from previous estimates [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 91 billion CNY, a decrease of 35.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.7 billion CNY, down 26.2% [5][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.75 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 51% [5]. Cement Business - The cement and clinker business generated revenues of 65.8 billion CNY in 2024, a decline of 16% year-on-year, with sales volume at 26.8 million tons, down 6% [6]. - The average selling price for cement was 246 CNY per ton, a decrease of 10% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for the cement business was approximately 23.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the demand for cement is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a narrowing decline in demand anticipated [7]. - The report highlights that the price decline in the cement industry may have reached a bottom, with a recovery in profitability expected in 2025 [11]. Concrete and Aggregate Business - The concrete business achieved revenues of 2.67 billion CNY in 2024, up 19% year-on-year, while the aggregate business reported revenues of 4.69 billion CNY, an increase of 21% [8]. Capacity and Expansion - The company increased its clinker capacity by 2.3 million tons and cement capacity by 8 million tons in 2024, with significant expansions in aggregate and concrete production capacity as well [9]. Future Projections - For 2025, the company aims to maintain cement and clinker sales volume at 26.8 million tons, with capital expenditures projected at 11.98 billion CNY [10].