水电投产周期

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国电电力(600795):水电投产新周期 盈利、估值或受益
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 02:32
Core Viewpoint - The company, backed by the State Energy Group, is a leading state-owned power generation enterprise in China, with a total installed capacity of 111.7 GW by the end of 2024, comprising 67% thermal power, 13% hydropower, and 20% renewable energy [1] Group 1 - The company has shown significant market value management results since the second half of 2020, with a potential for substantial asset injection from the group [1] - The company's stock price has increased by 165% from July 15, 2020, to June 27, 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 9.28% for 2024, a notable improvement from -1.15% in 2020 [1] - The State Energy Group announced ongoing asset integration, with potential coal power assets injection that could provide 96% flexibility in coal power installed capacity [1] Group 2 - The Dadu River project is set to enter a new production cycle in 2025-2026, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability and valuation [2] - The hydropower capacity is projected to increase by 43% by the end of 2024, with downstream hydropower stations benefiting from increased annual power generation and improved electricity pricing [2] - The projected installed capacity of 3.52 million kW from the Dadu River project is expected to increase the company's net profit from hydropower by 31% to 2.735 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company differs from market views that suggest lower allocation value due to declining coal prices, arguing that potential asset injections and new hydropower production will provide profit elasticity [3] Group 4 - The target price for the company's stock is set at 6.69 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 7.556 billion, 8.911 billion, and 9.375 billion yuan respectively [4] - The company’s expected price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025 are 14.5 and 1.80, respectively, with a target market value of 119.3 billion yuan [4]
国电电力(600795):看好国能大渡河迈入新一轮投产周期
HTSC· 2025-04-16 07:00
证券研究报告 国电电力 (600795 CH) 看好国能大渡河迈入新一轮投产周期 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 16 日│中国内地 发电 公司公布 2024 年年报:公司实现营收 1791.82 亿元,同比-1.0%;归母净 利润 98.31 亿元,同比+75.3%,基本符合我们预期(95.89 亿元),位于公 司业绩预告 95-98.5 亿元的区间上沿;扣非归母净利润 46.66 亿元,同比 -4.2%。2024 年,公司处置国电建投内蒙古能源 50%股权产生的收益在冲 销已计提资产减值损失后为 45.68 亿元。2024 年公司 DPS 为 0.20 元/股(含 税),分红比例为 36.28%。公司核心水电资产国能大渡河 2025 年将迈入新 一轮投产周期,看好具备年调节能力的双江口水电站投产后对大渡河流域梯 级水电站联合调度能力提升作用,维持"买入"评级。 2024 年火电度电净利润同比+0.5 分至 2.9 分,4Q24 创本年季度新高 2024 年公司火电上网电量为 3470.25 亿千瓦时,同比-1.2%,其中 4Q24 火电上网电量同比-1.5%至 864.35 亿千瓦时。2024 ...