丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨华能水电（600025.SH） [Table_Title] 来水转弱影响电量增幅，多重因素限制业绩预期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上半年澜沧江流域来水较多年平均偏丰，公司全力协调小湾和糯扎渡"两库"水位消落，加快 释放水电蓄能，叠加 TB 电站、硬梁包电站部分机组投产的拉动，上半年公司水电发电量同比 增长 10.93%，其中单二季度水电发电量同比增长 0.90%。整体来看，得益于水电和新能源装 机规模的持续扩张，公司二季度发电量同比增长 3.25%，而考虑云南省内年度交易电价有所调 整，预计公司收入端表现偏弱。此外，新机组投产后将带动折旧、运维等成本费用的同比提升， 公司二季度业绩或面临一定压力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 华能水电（600025.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 来水转弱影响电量增幅，多重因素限 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 6.05% year-on-year, reaching 24.882 billion yuan, driven by a 4.62% increase in power generation and a 0.66% rise in electricity prices. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8.297 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.63% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company anticipates a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, amounting to 5.385 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.508 billion yuan, representing a 41.56% year-on-year growth [2][6]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with financial expenses decreasing by 2.04% in 2024 and 5.00% in the first quarter of 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.882 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 8.297 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue is 5.385 billion yuan, and the net profit is 1.508 billion yuan [6][12]. Power Generation and Pricing - The total power generation for 2024 is expected to be 112.012 billion kWh, a 4.62% increase year-on-year. The average electricity price is projected to reach 0.22257 yuan/kWh, up 0.66% from the previous year [12]. - In Q1 2025, the company anticipates a power generation increase of 31.22% year-on-year, totaling 21.292 billion kWh, driven by strong demand and optimized scheduling [12]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced financial expenses, with a decrease of 2.04% in 2024 and 5.00% in Q1 2025. R&D expenses also saw a reduction of 19.49% in 2024 [12][2]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.54 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.04, 18.27, and 17.62 [12].