（文/观察者网 张家栋 编辑/高莘） 1月14日，中国汽车协会正式发布2025年12月及全年汽车销量数据，并给出2026年我国车市销量预测。 去年12月，我国汽车销量总计327.2万辆，同比下降6.2%；全年汽车销量达到3440万辆，同比增长9.4%，高于年初预期。至此，我国汽车年销量已经连续17 年位居全球首位。 中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华表示，在"十四五"期间，汽车行业取得了多方面突破，产销规模跃升至3000万辆，营业收入突破10万亿，出口跻身世界第 一。同时，电动化与智能化。网联化加速融合，形成产业优势。 其中，乘用车12月销量为284.7万辆，同比下降8.7%；全年乘用车销量共计3010.3万辆，同比增长9.2%。陈士华表示，这也是我国乘用车产销规模首次超过 3000万辆。目前，我国自主品牌乘用车新车市占率已经接近70%。 相较之下，前两年市场相对低迷的商用车市场，也在政策影响下开始复苏，并重返400万辆。12月，我国商用车销量共计42.5万辆，同比增长15.3%；全年商 用车销量共计429.6万辆，同比增长10.9%。 值得一提的是，2025年全年，我国汽车国内销量总计2730.2万辆，同比增长 ...

Group 1 - Ford South Africa plans to lay off approximately 470 workers in response to market demand changes and to optimize production structure, affecting the Silverton assembly plant in Pretoria and the Struandale engine plant in Port Elizabeth [2] - The Silverton plant has been a significant part of local manufacturing since its inception in 1923, and Ford invested $1 billion in 2021 to expand operations and increase the production capacity of the Ranger pickup from 168,000 to 200,000 units annually [2] - Despite the investment and strong sales performance, including a projected 25,552 units sold in 2024, Ford's decision to cut jobs is closely linked to its global strategic adjustments, particularly its shift towards electrification [2] Group 2 - The South African automotive industry faces challenges such as low local sales, an influx of imported vehicles, a significant drop in exports to the U.S., and ongoing economic pressures, leading to a decline in industry competitiveness [3] - Over the past two years, 12 automotive-related companies in South Africa have closed, resulting in the loss of over 4,000 jobs, indicating the industry's struggles amid transformation [3] - Ford's performance in the Chinese market remains strong, with continuous profitability for eight consecutive quarters, and the company is expected to focus more on this market as a stable source of revenue [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [7] - The company is expected to see a performance turning point in Q3 2025, driven by stable growth in core businesses and strong momentum in new businesses [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 21.8%, down 5.37 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to external pressures from main engine manufacturers and increased shipping costs [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 8.7 billion, 10.3 billion, and 12.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 22% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 410 million, 570 million, and 750 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 41%, and 31% [7] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is projected to be 1.91 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 14, and 11 for 2025-2027 [1][7]