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零跑汽车:一季度业绩超预期,对2025财年更加乐观-20250520
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-05-20 01:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [4][18]. Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q1 2025 net loss of RMB 130 million exceeded previous expectations, driven by an increase in average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), along with unexpected contributions from strategic partnerships [1][2]. - The sales volume forecast for FY25 has been raised by 15% to 550,000 units, reflecting strong sales performance and order volume from April to May [3][4]. - The GPM for Q1 2025 improved by 1.6 percentage points to 14.9%, attributed to strategic cooperation with FAW and effective cost reduction efforts [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 have been increased to RMB 58.993 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 83.4% [5][13]. - The net profit forecast for FY25 has been adjusted from a loss of RMB 98 million to a profit of RMB 118 million, with significant profit growth expected in FY26 [4][13]. - The GPM for FY25 is now projected at 12.1%, up from 11.2%, reflecting enhanced cost management capabilities [3][13]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been raised from HKD 50.00 to HKD 72.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5 times for FY25 [4][6]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in market sentiment and profit outlook for Leapmotor, supporting the revised target price [4][6]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Mr. Jiangming Zhu with 25.0% and Stellantis N.V. with 21.3% [7]. Stock Performance - Leapmotor's stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 38.4% and a 6-month return of 106.3% [8].