晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 25 日 核心结论 分析师 【汽车】蔚来汽车（9866.HK）2025 年报点评：Q4 毛利率环比大幅提升， 产品结构优化&规模效应显现 公司是国内头部新势力车企，随着产品结构以及规模优势强化，我们预计 2026-2028 年公司营收 1284/1571/1808 亿元，归母净利润 4.0/35.9/73.2 亿 元，给予"买入"评级。 【汽车】敏实集团（00425.HK）2025 年年报点评：电池盒贡献核心增量， 机器人&液冷布局持续推进 我 们 预 计 2026-2028 年 公 司 营 收 分 别 为 303/351/401 亿 元 ， 同 比 +18%/+16%/+14% ， 归 母 净 利 润 31.5/37.4/43.4 亿 元 ， 同 比 +17%/+19%/+16%，维持"买入"评级。 【汽车】零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年报点评：25 全年业绩符合预期， 26 年冲击销量百万目标 公司为国内头部新势力车企，25 年受新车销量拉动实现量利双增。我们认 为，公司 26 年仍处强势新品周期，有望实现利润目标。预计公司 26-28 年 营收 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年四季报点评 强推（维持） 25Q4 盈利创新高，新车+出海经营稳步向上 目标价：61.68 港元 事项： ❖ 零跑汽车发布 2025 年四季报，4Q25 实现营收 210 亿元，同比+56%，环比 +8.1%；净利润 3.6 亿元，同比+2.8 亿元，环比+2.1 亿元。2025 年全年实现营 收 647 亿元、同比+1.0 倍；净利润 5.4 亿元，同比+34 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 64,732 | 110,305 | 135,318 | 138,863 | | 同比增速(%) | 101.3% | 70.4% | 22.7% | 2.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 538 | 5,140 | 7,520 | 8,522 | | 同比增速(%) | 119.1% | 854.7% | 46.3% | 13.3 ...

公司点评 | 零跑汽车 25 全年业绩符合预期，26 年冲击销量百万目标 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 24 日 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年报点评 事件：公司 25Q4 净利润 3.6 亿元，营收 210.3 亿，Q4 毛利率 15%，其中整 车毛利率约 12%，首次全年盈利。25 年全年营收 647.3 亿元，同比翻倍，主 要是受新车上市拉动。全年 Non-GAAP 净利 10.8 亿元，同比+34.3 亿元。 公司处于新品周期，将全面覆盖 10-30 万元价格带，有望驱动销量持续突破。 公司新车型发布节奏明确，A10 将于 3 月底正式上市；D 平台首发车型 D19 预计于 4 月启动销售；A05 与 D99 则计划在 6 月中下旬至 7 月初推向市场。 我们认为，这四款新车上市后将构成完整的 ABCD 品牌矩阵，公司将全面覆 盖 10-30 万元的价格区间。预计 26 年存量车型与新增车型销量占比为 6:4。 海外渠道持续布局，产品加速出口海外。1）渠道方面，公司 2025 年出口量 为新势力第一，超 6.7 万辆。2026 年欧洲网点将超 800 家，南美、亚太渠道 将大幅增加。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant growth in core net profit for 2025, driven by high-end product offerings and export expansion for Geely Automobile [4][5] - Geely's total delivery volume reached 3.025 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.0%, with total revenue of 345.23 billion yuan, up 25.1% [4] - The company expects to launch multiple new models in 2026, including the Zeekr 8X, which has shown strong pre-sale performance [5][6] Group 2 - The report indicates a substantial increase in overseas sales for Geely, with exports reaching 121,000 units in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 129.4% [6] - Geely aims to expand its overseas channels to over 2,000 and has set an annual export target of 640,000 units for 2026 [6] - The company is advancing its AI strategy, integrating AI technology into core automotive functions, and has announced a partnership with NVIDIA to enhance AI capabilities [6] Group 3 - The report projects Geely's revenue to grow to 421.8 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 215 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27% [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.98 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.2 times [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Geely, citing the company's strong growth potential driven by new energy products and high-end brand sales [7] Group 4 - The report on Blukoo indicates a significant increase in revenue, reaching 2.913 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 30.0% [8][9] - The adjusted net profit for Blukoo was 675 million yuan, up 15.5% from the previous year, despite a decline in gross margin due to rising costs [8] - The company has seen a notable increase in adult-targeted products, with a significant rise in the number of SKUs aimed at consumers aged 16 and above [10] Group 5 - The report on Xiechuang Data shows a remarkable revenue growth of 93.77% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 3.905 billion yuan [13] - The net profit for the same quarter was 466 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 246.15% [13] - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with intelligent computing products becoming a significant contributor to overall income [13] Group 6 - The report on SF Holding indicates a 9.44% year-on-year increase in business volume for January-February 2026, with revenue from express logistics reaching 36.817 billion yuan [18] - The average revenue per package has slightly decreased by 0.79%, but the company expects stabilization in pricing as it adjusts its market strategy [18] - The long-term outlook for SF Holding remains positive, with expectations for growth in international business and supply chain services [19] Group 7 - Tencent Music's revenue for 2025 was 32.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with net profit rising by 66.4% to 11.06 billion yuan [22][24] - The company has seen strong growth in its online music subscription business, with a notable increase in both user payment rates and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [26] - The report highlights the potential for AI to enhance music creation and consumption, driving further growth in the industry [28] Group 8 - The report on the electric power ETF indicates a significant opportunity for asset revaluation in the power sector, driven by the increasing demand for electricity from data centers [30][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new pricing mechanisms for electricity generation, which are expected to enhance the profitability of power assets [32] - The electric power sector is positioned as a defensive investment, with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities, making it attractive for long-term investors [34]

2026 年 03 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： [Table_Title] 2025Q4 毛利率创新高，全年盈利转正 ——零跑汽车（09863）2025 年业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2026/03/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 零跑汽车 | 0.3% | -13.2% | -17.0% | | 恒生指数 | -4.3% | -1.6% | 4.4% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/03/20 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 43.84 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | | | 37.64-76.30 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 62,332.27 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 49,585.11 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 142,181.27 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 113,104.71 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | | | 428.17 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 15.37 | 相关报告 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of the company met expectations, with a strong product cycle. The company achieved a total revenue of 21.03 billion yuan in Q4, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 360 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 136.9% [8] - The company has launched new models, including the Leaping LAFA5, which contributed to a total delivery of 180,000 vehicles by the end of 2025. The overall average selling price (ASP) for Q4 was 105,000 yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% [8] - The gross margin for Q4 was 15.0%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement due to economies of scale and effective cost control [8] - The company has expanded its sales and service network to cover 295 cities with 950 locations by the end of 2025, and has established over 900 international sales and service points [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 32,164 million yuan, 2025A: 64,732 million yuan, 2026E: 109,932 million yuan, 2027E: 130,556 million yuan, and 2028E: 139,122 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 92.06%, 101.25%, 69.83%, 18.76%, and 6.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be (2,820.80) million yuan in 2024A, 538.39 million yuan in 2025A, 2,618.62 million yuan in 2026E, 4,504.42 million yuan in 2027E, and 6,938.15 million yuan in 2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.10%, 119.09%, 386.38%, 72.01%, and 54.03% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be (1.98) yuan in 2024A, 0.38 yuan in 2025A, 1.84 yuan in 2026E, 3.17 yuan in 2027E, and 4.88 yuan in 2028E [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be (19.78) in 2024A, 103.64 in 2025A, 21.31 in 2026E, 12.39 in 2027E, and 8.04 in 2028E [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6]. - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6]. - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in its current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast shows a recovery trajectory with estimates of -2.82 billion yuan in 2024, 538 million yuan in 2025, 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, indicating a year-on-year growth of 33%, 119%, 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly to 15.1% in 2026 and further to 15.3% by 2028 [10]. Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 units exported in 2025 and over 100,000 units cumulatively by February 2026 [7]. - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, having launched models in Brazil and established a significant presence in Europe with over 800 outlets [7]. - The upcoming production of the B10 model in Spain is expected to enhance the company's local manufacturing capabilities and support its international growth strategy [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6] - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6] - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in the current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4] - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.38 yuan in 2025, 3.39 yuan in 2026, 5.17 yuan in 2027, and 6.51 yuan in 2028 [4] Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 vehicles exported in 2025 and over 100,000 cumulative exports by February 2026 [7] - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, with new models launched in Brazil and plans for further growth in this region [7] Future Outlook - The introduction of the A and D series models is anticipated to drive domestic sales upward, while the new factory in Spain is expected to commence production of the B10 model in October 2026 [8] - Despite adjustments in profit forecasts due to industry challenges, the company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by new vehicle cycles and international expansion [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high quarterly profit and turned profitable for the full year, indicating the start of an earnings upcycle [3][12]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 reached RMB 210.3 billion, a 56.2% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin improvement to 15% [3][12]. - Full-year revenue doubled to RMB 647.3 billion, with deliveries of 596,555 units, reflecting a 103.1% year-over-year growth [3][12]. - The company has a strong product pipeline for 2026, with multiple new models set to launch, enhancing market penetration [4][13]. - Strategic partnerships, particularly with FAW and Stellantis, are expected to contribute to revenue diversification and global industrial synergies [4][13]. - Cost pressures are manageable, with the company maintaining a net profit target of RMB 5 billion for FY2026, supported by improved cost discipline [14][16]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with approximately 900 sales and service outlets established across 40 international markets [15][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 have been revised to RMB 102.1 billion, RMB 132.6 billion, and RMB 167.7 billion, respectively [16]. - The company maintains a strong product pipeline advantage compared to peers, supporting continued domestic market share gains and high growth overseas [16]. - The target price is set at HKD 61.44, based on a 0.75x 2026E P/S multiple [16].

18 Mar 2026 研究报告 Research Report 零跑汽车 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) 单季利润创新高、全年扭亏，盈利拐点开启上行周期 Quarterly Profit Hits Record High, Full-Year Turns Profitable — Earnings Inflection Point Signals Start of an Upcycle [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$44.34 目标价 HK$61.44 HTI ESG 3.5-3.3-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$50.15bn / US$6.40bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$49.31mn 发行股票数目 1,131mn 自由流通股 (%) 59% 1 年股价最高最低值 ...