Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 3, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The oil price lacks support, asphalt supply and demand are weak, the spot price has corrected again, and the short - term market is cautious, with a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3027 yuan/ton, closing at 3007 yuan/ton, with a high of 3040 yuan/ton, a low of 3003 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%, and a trading volume of 22.29 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3020 yuan/ton, closing at 3012 yuan/ton, with a high of 3033 yuan/ton, a low of 3004 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 8.05 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Today, asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, East China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased, while those in other regions were generally stable [6] - **Supply**: Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to continue producing asphalt after a brief resumption. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly [6] - **Demand**: Cold air has affected most parts of China again. Road demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to be stable [6] Group 5: Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. After the asphalt futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton and continued to decline, the low - price in the Shandong asphalt market dropped below 2900 yuan/ton, widening the price difference with East China. Both the futures and Shandong supply pressured the East China spot price. Today, the ex - factory price of some agents at Jinling was adjusted down to 3300 yuan/ton, driving the market price down [7] - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2880 - 3470 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Although international oil prices rebounded, the asphalt futures trend was weak, continuously affecting the spot market sentiment. In addition, snow and rain in some parts of Shandong today restricted demand release, and local refineries and traders continued to lower their quotes, driving the Shandong market price down [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market sentiment of asphalt remains cautious due to weak rigid demand The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term as oil prices lack support and asphalt's supply - demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed after the recent decline [6][7] Group 4: Market Analysis 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3055 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3076 yuan/ton, a low of 3047 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 18.37 million lots BU2512 opened at 3069 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3081 yuan/ton, a low of 3050 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 0.86 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Prices in Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions declined, while prices in Shandong rebounded slightly, and other regions remained stable The overall rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [6] - Supply: Some refineries have production changes, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rise slightly [7] - Demand: Demand shows regional differentiation Northeast and Northwest regions have reached the annual low in rigid demand, North China and Shandong maintain stable demand, and South China's demand is expected to be stable [7] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 2980 - 3620 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day The rebound of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosts the market, and the price increase may release downstream demand [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3150 - 3320 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day The new contract price of PetroChina's asphalt is undetermined, and the market is cautious The price decline is due to the reduction of contract quotes from Jingbo Hainan's warehouse [8] 3. Data Overview - Data includes South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The decline in asphalt production at major refineries combined with further improvement in demand makes short - term bullish oscillations more likely. The recent bullish oscillations in the asphalt market are mainly supported by the continuous improvement of the supply - demand situation. In the short term, the supply has significantly contracted, and the factory inventory has decreased, which further supports the spot price. The improvement in weather conditions has also led to an expectation of improved rigid demand for asphalt. Overall, the short - term market is likely to continue its bullish oscillations, but the upward and downward spaces are limited. The future key variables include refinery restart progress, the end time of the southern rainy season and the availability of project funds in the north, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - The strategy is to take a long - position approach on dips in the unilateral market and consider widening the asphalt crack spread after it retraces. The fluctuation range of BU is given as [3300, 3700] [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 9.4% to 52.9 million tons, mainly due to some refineries switching to producing residual oil or halting production. The capacity utilization rate dropped to 31.7% (a 3.3% decrease from the previous period). The import volume increased by 6.7% in April, with resources from Southeast Asia and South Korea arriving at ports in South and East China. The maintenance loss of equipment increased by 5.1% to 75.8 million tons, with refineries in the northwest, north, and Shandong regions undergoing concentrated maintenance [4]. - From January to December 2025, the asphalt supply shows fluctuations. The total supply in May is 234 million tons, with an 8.27% decrease from the previous month and a 14.82% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - According to different statistical calibers, the theoretical profits of asphalt production in various types of refineries this week have declined. Next week, asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, and the operating range of crude oil may move downward, with potential for improved asphalt production efficiency [69]. - As of May 22, 2025, the theoretical processing profit of Shandong local refineries' delayed coking units was 141.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.83 yuan/ton (+61.61%) and a year - on - year decrease of 165.01 yuan/ton (-53.89%) [70]. Demand - The continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed the rigid demand for asphalt, and road construction has been hindered, resulting in a week - on - week decline in demand in the south. In the north, due to tight project funds, the construction progress is slow, and only low - priced resources have achieved decent sales. The refinery's shipment volume increased by 10.9% week - on - week, but the demand side lacks continuous support [4]. - The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 43.5 million tons, a 10.9% increase from the previous period. The stable production of major refineries in the east and south regions, with shipments mainly by ship, has driven the increase in regional shipment volume. In Shandong, the shutdown of Lanqiao Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in shipment volume this week [83]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale of new local government special bonds nationwide reached 960.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 326.1 billion yuan (+51.4%). The issuance scale accounts for 21.8% of the annual special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating that fiscal policy continues the characteristic of "front - loaded efforts" [90]. Inventory - The factory inventory decreased by 3.6%, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China as refineries fulfilled contract shipments. The social inventory increased by 0.9% due to the concentrated arrival of ships in East China and insufficient terminal consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. - The total domestic asphalt social inventory was 185.9 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from May 15. During the statistical period, the social inventory continued to decline, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China [92]. Price Difference - In the Shandong region, the basis fluctuated widely during the week and finally dropped by 14 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. In the East China region, the basis weakened oscillatingly, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4 yuan. In the South China region, the basis stabilized weakly, and the weekly discount narrowed by 14 yuan. In the Southwest region, the basis rebounded in a V - shape, with a cumulative weekly slight decline of 4 yuan but still remaining at a high level [11]. - The M1 - M3 spread narrowed from 52 points to 50 points, and the M1 - M6 spread shrank from 251 points to 230 points, indicating a weakening of the forward discount structure. The M1 - M9 spread fluctuated within a range of 34 points (255 - 289) during the week [19]. - The spot prices of asphalt in North and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The reduction in the market circulation volume in some regions has supported the spot price of asphalt. Although the crude oil price continued to move within a range, the tight market circulation volume of asphalt in some regions recently has provided positive support for the domestic average asphalt price, which has continued to rise [27]. - The import spread of foreign - sourced asphalt further weakened [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core Viewpoints This week, as the supply of crude oil tightened and oil prices rose, asphalt prices also increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures price strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventory levels and a generally positive outlook. The supply in the north was tight, while that in the east and south was relatively loose. The positives were low inventory levels, scarce and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April's production schedule. The negatives were the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and Sinopec's price cuts. The fundamentals improved slightly, with short - term stability expected. Inventory is still projected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to long - positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract. Also, monitor the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures price fluctuated, and the crack spread profit was at a neutral level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong rose slightly. The daily asphalt production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1] Weekly Data | Date | East China Spot Low | Shandong Spot Low | Northeast Spot Low | Futures Price | Main Basis | Spread between Futures Main and Venezuelan Maya Crude Cost | South Korea CIF East China | South Korea's East China Price in RMB | Shandong Coking Feedstock | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/04/02 | 3600 | 3560 | 3900 | 3658 | -58 | -67 | 465 | 4086 | 4630 | | 2025/04/03 | 3650 | 3550 | 3900 | 3610 | 20 | 138 | 465 | 4091 | 4630 | | 2025/04/07 | 3650 | 3350 | 3850 | 3376 | 54 | 219 | 465 | 4096 | 4630 | | 2025/04/08 | 3650 | 3340 | 3800 | 3321 | 99 | 236 | 465 | 4099 | 4400 | | 2025/04/09 | 3550 | 3250 | 3800 | 3232 | 98 | - | 465 | 4101 | 4410 | | Change | -100 | -90 | 0 | -89 | -1 | - | 0 | 2 | 10 | [1]