Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach recommended [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is still sensitive to upside risks caused by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the - money options [2] - The fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is marginally relieved, with different performance in variety spreads [3] - The supply and demand of asphalt are expected to tighten marginally, with the price range - bound and the crack spread expected to gradually recover [4] - The overseas LPG market is stable, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market is in a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil futures fluctuated, and the SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to the impact of position transfer. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is trending to ease, but short - term uncertainties remain. The market is sensitive to upside risks from geopolitical factors, and it is advisable to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the money options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, with weak ship - bunkering and power - generation demands. The inventories in Singapore and Fujairah are high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continues to decline. The approval of the quota for converting low - sulfur fuel oil to refined oil by main refineries marginally relieves the supply pressure, and LU is boosted. FU is weaker than LU but stronger than SC, and the FU crack spread strengthens [3] Asphalt - The supply and demand of asphalt have tightened slightly as expected. The diversion effect of Venezuelan oil imports by the US on North Asian resources may gradually appear, and the cumulative output of asphalt by Sinopec is declining year - on - year. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to rise. The August shipment volume of sample refineries increased 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive. The BU price follows SC but shows certain resistance to decline. The price of the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton, and the crack spread is expected to gradually recover [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market is stable, with increased exports but supported by East Asian procurement demand. The domestic imports and refinery out - put are rising, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is continuously weakening, and the sustainability of the high operating rate needs attention. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations, with strong pressure at the top due to high warehouse receipts, and the high - basis pattern can continue, mainly in low - level shock [5]

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Reported Industry: Asphalt 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - The supply - demand situation of asphalt has deteriorated, and a unilateral short - selling approach is recommended [6] 4. Summary by Section 4.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2510, the opening price was 3491 yuan/ton, closing at 3503 yuan/ton, with a high of 3504 yuan/ton, a low of 3480 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%, and a trading volume of 12.32 million lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3444 yuan/ton, closing at 3460 yuan/ton, with a high of 3460 yuan/ton, a low of 3438 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%, and a trading volume of 2.87 million lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market increased, while those in the East and South China markets decreased, and other regions remained stable. Multiple refineries plan to resume asphalt production, leading to a significant increase in the average operating load rate of asphalt plants. However, events like the World Games and military parades will limit project construction in some areas, and the short - term improvement in rigid demand for asphalt remains limited [6] 4.2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to trade in a low - level range, and the demand in the spot market did not improve, with the market sentiment being cautious and wait - and - see. Some refineries lowered their asphalt prices, but the mainstream transaction range remained stable [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The shipping price in Jieyang decreased by 30 yuan/ton, reducing the storage cost of Jieyang's shipped asphalt in Foshan. Additionally, the simultaneous quotation and sales of Jingbo Hainan's shipping orders and warehouse stocks dampened market sentiment, causing some traders to lower their bulk sales prices and driving down the market price in South China [7] 4.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18][22]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2510 opened at 3507 yuan/ton, closed at 3506 yuan/ton, with a high of 3516 yuan/ton, a low of 3491 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%, and a trading volume of 12.03 million lots; BU2511 opened at 3452 yuan/ton, closed at 3466 yuan/ton, with a high of 3474 yuan/ton, a low of 3446 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%, and a trading volume of 2.14 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets declined, while other regions remained stable. Rigid demand for asphalt was weak, which was negative for spot prices [6] - Supply and Demand: Some refineries planned to resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants would increase significantly. Demand improvement was limited due to events restricting project construction. Overall, asphalt supply and demand deteriorated, and a short-selling strategy was recommended [6] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream trading price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Terminal demand remained weak, and some traders lowered their quotes [7] - South China Market: The mainstream trading price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3540 - 3550 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. Maoming Petrochemical adjusted its prices, and a new contract price from Gaofu also decreased, which was negative for market sentiment [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures Included: Asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [8][13][16][19] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][12]

【沥青供需双弱，开工负荷率处低位】8月11日消息，目前沥青生产企业开工负荷率持续在低位区间运 行。 需求方面，高温、降雨天气影响部分地区道路施工，终端项目推进慢，沥青需求整体低迷，下游 与贸易商多采取谨慎策略。 近期成本端原油价格震荡下跌，沥青价格中枢随原油波动。操作上建议短 线交易为主。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories are continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3,528 - 3,596 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Strengthening crude oil supports prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2509 in the 3,528 - 3,596 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract data for asphalt are presented, including price changes, inventory changes, and开工率 changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.15%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Charts show the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China over the years [20] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Mainly presents the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, and their ratio trends, as well as the cracking spread trends of crude oil [25][27][30] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The chart shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt over the years [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43] - **Supply - side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation [46][48][51] - **Inventory Analysis**: Involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [66][70][73] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: Includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The decline in asphalt production at major refineries combined with further improvement in demand makes short - term bullish oscillations more likely. The recent bullish oscillations in the asphalt market are mainly supported by the continuous improvement of the supply - demand situation. In the short term, the supply has significantly contracted, and the factory inventory has decreased, which further supports the spot price. The improvement in weather conditions has also led to an expectation of improved rigid demand for asphalt. Overall, the short - term market is likely to continue its bullish oscillations, but the upward and downward spaces are limited. The future key variables include refinery restart progress, the end time of the southern rainy season and the availability of project funds in the north, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - The strategy is to take a long - position approach on dips in the unilateral market and consider widening the asphalt crack spread after it retraces. The fluctuation range of BU is given as [3300, 3700] [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 9.4% to 52.9 million tons, mainly due to some refineries switching to producing residual oil or halting production. The capacity utilization rate dropped to 31.7% (a 3.3% decrease from the previous period). The import volume increased by 6.7% in April, with resources from Southeast Asia and South Korea arriving at ports in South and East China. The maintenance loss of equipment increased by 5.1% to 75.8 million tons, with refineries in the northwest, north, and Shandong regions undergoing concentrated maintenance [4]. - From January to December 2025, the asphalt supply shows fluctuations. The total supply in May is 234 million tons, with an 8.27% decrease from the previous month and a 14.82% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - According to different statistical calibers, the theoretical profits of asphalt production in various types of refineries this week have declined. Next week, asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, and the operating range of crude oil may move downward, with potential for improved asphalt production efficiency [69]. - As of May 22, 2025, the theoretical processing profit of Shandong local refineries' delayed coking units was 141.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.83 yuan/ton (+61.61%) and a year - on - year decrease of 165.01 yuan/ton (-53.89%) [70]. Demand - The continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed the rigid demand for asphalt, and road construction has been hindered, resulting in a week - on - week decline in demand in the south. In the north, due to tight project funds, the construction progress is slow, and only low - priced resources have achieved decent sales. The refinery's shipment volume increased by 10.9% week - on - week, but the demand side lacks continuous support [4]. - The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 43.5 million tons, a 10.9% increase from the previous period. The stable production of major refineries in the east and south regions, with shipments mainly by ship, has driven the increase in regional shipment volume. In Shandong, the shutdown of Lanqiao Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in shipment volume this week [83]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale of new local government special bonds nationwide reached 960.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 326.1 billion yuan (+51.4%). The issuance scale accounts for 21.8% of the annual special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating that fiscal policy continues the characteristic of "front - loaded efforts" [90]. Inventory - The factory inventory decreased by 3.6%, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China as refineries fulfilled contract shipments. The social inventory increased by 0.9% due to the concentrated arrival of ships in East China and insufficient terminal consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. - The total domestic asphalt social inventory was 185.9 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from May 15. During the statistical period, the social inventory continued to decline, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China [92]. Price Difference - In the Shandong region, the basis fluctuated widely during the week and finally dropped by 14 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. In the East China region, the basis weakened oscillatingly, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4 yuan. In the South China region, the basis stabilized weakly, and the weekly discount narrowed by 14 yuan. In the Southwest region, the basis rebounded in a V - shape, with a cumulative weekly slight decline of 4 yuan but still remaining at a high level [11]. - The M1 - M3 spread narrowed from 52 points to 50 points, and the M1 - M6 spread shrank from 251 points to 230 points, indicating a weakening of the forward discount structure. The M1 - M9 spread fluctuated within a range of 34 points (255 - 289) during the week [19]. - The spot prices of asphalt in North and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The reduction in the market circulation volume in some regions has supported the spot price of asphalt. Although the crude oil price continued to move within a range, the tight market circulation volume of asphalt in some regions recently has provided positive support for the domestic average asphalt price, which has continued to rise [27]. - The import spread of foreign - sourced asphalt further weakened [36].