本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 《八》 国控期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月16日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告,宣布对俄罗斯采取新一轮制裁措施。自上周美国扣押一艘油轮并对与委内瑞拉 有业务往来的航运公司和船只实施制裁以来,委内瑞拉的石油出口量急剧下降。然全球原油供需愈发宽松背景 下,美国主导的和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步增大供应压力,油价承压降至年内 低点。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 高硫燃料油方面，地缘因素持续犹动供应前景。原料端，美国计划数周内对多艘涉及委内瑞拉油轮采取扣押行 动,或影响高硫重质原料出货。不 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 3, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The oil price lacks support, asphalt supply and demand are weak, the spot price has corrected again, and the short - term market is cautious, with a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3027 yuan/ton, closing at 3007 yuan/ton, with a high of 3040 yuan/ton, a low of 3003 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%, and a trading volume of 22.29 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3020 yuan/ton, closing at 3012 yuan/ton, with a high of 3033 yuan/ton, a low of 3004 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 8.05 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Today, asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, East China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased, while those in other regions were generally stable [6] - **Supply**: Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to continue producing asphalt after a brief resumption. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly [6] - **Demand**: Cold air has affected most parts of China again. Road demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to be stable [6] Group 5: Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. After the asphalt futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton and continued to decline, the low - price in the Shandong asphalt market dropped below 2900 yuan/ton, widening the price difference with East China. Both the futures and Shandong supply pressured the East China spot price. Today, the ex - factory price of some agents at Jinling was adjusted down to 3300 yuan/ton, driving the market price down [7] - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2880 - 3470 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Although international oil prices rebounded, the asphalt futures trend was weak, continuously affecting the spot market sentiment. In addition, snow and rain in some parts of Shandong today restricted demand release, and local refineries and traders continued to lower their quotes, driving the Shandong market price down [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil price has no support, the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, the basis has significantly narrowed, and the market will mainly move in a volatile manner [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3043 yuan/ton, the highest was 3068 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3024 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.56%, and the trading volume was 18.79 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3046 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3037 yuan/ton, the highest was 3060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3022 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.78%, and the trading volume was 8.55 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of asphalt in Shandong continued to decline, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to resume asphalt production after a brief restart. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Cold air has affected most parts of China again, with road demand in the Northeast and Northwest stagnant, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to remain stable [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2960 - 3470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply of asphalt spot resources in the Shandong market is abundant, some refineries are eager to sell contracts to preempt market demand in advance, and the quotes of some brand resources by traders have been lowered, leading to a continued downward trend in prices [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The demand in the East China market continued to be weak and stable, the social inventory shipments were stable and the inventory decreased, and the overall inventory of refineries also decreased as some refineries had previously shut down. However, the asphalt production of Zhenhai and Jinling was large at the end of the month, the overall market supply was abundant, and the truck - transportation price of the main refinery in Ningbo was lowered today, so the price in the East China market is expected to decline [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, remaining flat month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point. [8] - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support. [8] - The basis on November 24 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. [8] - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 79.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory is 64.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing, which is neutral. [8] - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, which is bearish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is also bearish. [8] - Overall, due to the recent production cut by refineries, the supply pressure is reduced. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains flat. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086. [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side production shows changes, and demand is below the historical average. Cost - side profit and crude oil trends are analyzed. [8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot price and the 01 contract basis on November 24 are presented, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [8] - **Inventory**: Social, in - plant, and port inventories show different trends of de - stocking and stocking. [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025. [18][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented. [26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are analyzed. [29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [48] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are presented. [56] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is shown. [64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [67][68] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown. [71] - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented. [74] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are shown, as well as the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025. [77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [89] - **New Local Special Bond Trend**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [90] - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2024 is shown. [90] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales are presented. [93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [98] - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January to November 2025 are presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and output. [107]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market sentiment of asphalt remains cautious due to weak rigid demand The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term as oil prices lack support and asphalt's supply - demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed after the recent decline [6][7] Group 4: Market Analysis 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3055 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3076 yuan/ton, a low of 3047 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 18.37 million lots BU2512 opened at 3069 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3081 yuan/ton, a low of 3050 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 0.86 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Prices in Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions declined, while prices in Shandong rebounded slightly, and other regions remained stable The overall rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [6] - Supply: Some refineries have production changes, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rise slightly [7] - Demand: Demand shows regional differentiation Northeast and Northwest regions have reached the annual low in rigid demand, North China and Shandong maintain stable demand, and South China's demand is expected to be stable [7] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 2980 - 3620 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day The rebound of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosts the market, and the price increase may release downstream demand [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3150 - 3320 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day The new contract price of PetroChina's asphalt is undetermined, and the market is cautious The price decline is due to the reduction of contract quotes from Jingbo Hainan's warehouse [8] 3. Data Overview - Data includes South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks jointly affected prices. In the first half of October, the sharp decline in oil prices under macro - risks significantly affected the cost of asphalt negatively. The demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, while supply remained high, increasing the inventory pressure in the industry chain and pressuring the spot price. In the second half of October, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs, but the supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum. In the future, oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5][40] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Preface and Overview - **Market Review**: In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [4] - **Market Outlook**: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [6] 2. Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: Similar to the preface, in October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [11] - **Supply Overview**: From January to September 2025, China's asphalt production was 20.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26 million tons or 12%. In September, the domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.79 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. From January to August 2025, asphalt imports were 2.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.203 million tons (- 7.9%). In September, imports were 0.342 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.073 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.137 million tons. From January to September, imports were 2.717 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.066 million tons (- 2.4%) [15][16] - **Demand Overview**: In October 2025, domestic asphalt demand was weak. In the north, demand declined after a brief pre - holiday rush due to cooling and rain. In the south, demand was slow to release due to typhoons, rain, and capital constraints. Only a small amount of demand was supported in southern Xinjiang and parts of the southwest. Refinery shipments were at a low level, and terminal demand showed that the road modified asphalt start - up rate was slowly rising but still at a low level, while the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to the lowest level [28] - **Inventory and Valuation**: In October 2025, domestic asphalt refinery inventories increased overall. Social inventories decreased overall, with a significant difference in the inventory consumption rhythm between the north and the south. The asphalt processing profit increased by about 25 yuan/ton compared to September, and the diluted asphalt premium decreased by 1.7 to - 8.2 US dollars/barrel. The basis in Shandong decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 171 yuan/ton, the basis in South China increased by 15 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China increased by 25 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [30][33] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [40]

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2511 opened at 3375 yuan/ton, closed at 3373 yuan/ton, with a high of 3395 yuan/ton, a low of 3364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.20%, and a trading volume of 182,100 lots; BU2512 opened at 3331 yuan/ton, closed at 3320 yuan/ton, with a high of 3340 yuan/ton, a low of 3310 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.31%, and a trading volume of 55,800 lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China markets declined, while those in other regions remained stable. The continuous decline of crude oil and asphalt futures was negative for asphalt spot prices [6] - Supply: The expected conversion of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical to produce residual oil and the production cut plans of some refineries might reduce supply, but the asphalt conversion plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical were implemented, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical, which had already converted, continued to operate stably. It was expected that the operating load rate of asphalt plants would continue to rise [6] - Demand: The weather in the northern and central markets was favorable, and driven by project rush - work, demand had certain resilience, while the demand in the southern region was affected by typhoon weather. Overall, demand remained stable [6] - Market Outlook: The asphalt market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, operating in a volatile and weak manner, and a bearish approach was recommended [6] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The decline of asphalt futures at night led to some spot - futures traders pricing and selling asphalt contracts, and the decline of the futures market was negative for the spot market sentiment, resulting in a decline in the low - end price of the South China market [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3480 - 3720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Qilu Petrochemical continued to produce asphalt, and the reduction of the settlement price led to a decline in the high - end price of the Shandong market. Market demand was relatively stable, but with abundant resource supply, the selling side was relatively active, and the prices of some local refinery brand asphalts were reduced [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided data on asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillation", with a short - term supply - demand contradiction not being prominent. In September, both supply and demand increased, and the long - term trend continues to follow crude oil fluctuations [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that in the asphalt market, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the traditional peak season, with both supply and demand increasing. Supply is affected by factors such as refinery production plans and raw material prices, demand shows regional differences, inventory is in a state of destocking, and cost is influenced by the complex situation in the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For October's local refinery production schedule, two information companies' tracking data shows 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although factors like weak crude oil prices and sufficient raw materials in September - October boost production enthusiasm, some refinery maintenance and intermittent production limit the growth rate [4]. - **Demand**: In North China and Shandong, some projects are rushing to work, and demand is gradually being released. In East and South China, demand is average, but sales have increased due to preferential policies. This week's shipment volume reached 455,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.6%, with significant growth in North and East China [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, both factory and social inventories of asphalt in China are in a state of destocking, especially in Shandong, mainly due to contract fulfillment and actual terminal demand [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend of "rising first and then falling". Multiple factors led to a decline in the price center. By Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $62.68 per barrel, and Brent at $66.68 per barrel, with the weekly average price down by $1.2 and $0.8 respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The investment view is "oscillation". The trading strategy for single - side trading is "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][10]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [15][17][19]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08 [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][69].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening price of BU2511 was 3410 yuan/ton, closing at 3393 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29% and a trading volume of 204,300 lots. The opening price of BU2512 was 3377 yuan/ton, closing at 3355 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12% and a trading volume of 47,200 lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt price in the North China market increased slightly, while that in Shandong decreased. Prices in other regions remained stable. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the spot market, and prices are generally stable [6] - Supply: Jinling Petrochemical may reduce asphalt production, and Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong switched to producing residual oil. However, Zhongyou Qinhuangdao may resume asphalt production in mid - September, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Henan Fengli will gradually switch to asphalt production. The asphalt plant operating rate is expected to continue to rise [6] - Demand: Road projects in the northern region are in a concentrated rush - construction period, and asphalt demand is improving steadily. In the southern region, due to the long construction period, it has not yet entered the rush - construction stage, and asphalt demand is mainly released steadily with limited overall growth [6] Group 5: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3480 - 3540 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although market demand is stable with no increase, the contracts of local futures - spot traders have been mostly purchased by local traders, and traders are more inclined to hold up prices [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3480 - 3820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Although international oil prices and asphalt futures rebounded during the session, the boost to the spot market was limited. With sufficient resource supply, some traders were actively selling, leading to a decline in prices [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][15]

Supply Side - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points week-on-week to 28.1%, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively low level compared to recent years [1] - Domestic asphalt production in September is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons month-on-month, representing an 11.3% increase, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, or 34.1% [1] Demand Side - The operating rates in most downstream industries for asphalt decreased last week, with road asphalt operating rate dropping by 0.83 percentage points to 27.5%, reaching the lowest level in recent years, constrained by funding and adverse weather conditions in some regions [1] - National shipment volume decreased by 0.11% week-on-week to 263,500 tons, remaining at a neutral to low level [1] Inventory - Asphalt refinery inventory decreased compared to last week but is still at the lowest level for the same period in recent years [1] Industry Dynamics - Chevron has been allowed to resume oil extraction in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount for China to purchase asphalt raw materials [1] - This week, Dongming Petrochemical and other facilities plan to switch to asphalt production, with improved weather in the south supporting demand, while heavy rainfall in some northern regions and funding constraints lead to cautious market sentiment [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, gradually lifting the secondary production limit of 1.65 million barrels per day, with recent significant declines in crude oil futures prices weakening cost support for asphalt [1] Market Recommendation - Given the weak supply and demand for asphalt, and the futures price having dropped to the lower end of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to temporarily take profits and exit short positions [1] Futures Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2511 rose by 0.88% to 3,450 yuan/ton, remaining above the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,421 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,457 yuan/ton, while open interest increased by 2,860 to 244,770 contracts [1] - In terms of basis, the mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,530 yuan/ton, while the basis for asphalt contract 11 has dropped to 80 yuan/ton, remaining at a neutral to high level [1]