Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large price fluctuations. The current supply - side pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. In April, the planned asphalt production in China is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) month - on - month and 764,000 tons (33.3%) year - on - year [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [1][4] - This week, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.66% week - on - week to 126,000 tons, still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is still at a low level. China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The attacks by the US and Israel on Iran will affect the Middle East raw material supply, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [1] - Next week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate is expected to decrease slightly. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz increases the expectation of refinery production cuts. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand gradually recovers slowly, and the supply - demand situation of asphalt improves [1] Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 1.05% to 4,532 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4,433 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,647 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4,443 to 280,023 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong is maintained at 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to - 202 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still in a year - on - year negative growth situation. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% from January to December 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 27, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, and the road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [4] - As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week - on - week compared with the week of March 20, and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is currently at a relatively low level, with the开工 rate dropping to 23.0% and the inventory rate remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the overall supply - demand situation is improving. The cost support is significant, and due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the expected reduction in refinery production has increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will be strong and volatile in the near future, following the trend of crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 218.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.1 million tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3 million tons (1.9%) [1]. - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most of the asphalt downstream industries'开工 rates increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9%, still lower than the level at the end of January [1]. - After the refineries in Shandong resumed production and the prices rose, the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking increased, and the national shipment volume increased by 12.67% to 17.61 million tons, but it was still at a low level [1]. - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong was stable, and the basis was at a relatively low level [1]. - China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and due to the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the Middle East raw material supply will be affected. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1]. - This week, Dongming Petrochemical resumed production, the asphalt开工率 increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, the terminal demand gradually recovered, the asphalt's supply - demand situation improved, the cost support was significant, and the market focused on the tense situation in the Middle East. The refinery production reduction expectation increased, and it is expected that the asphalt price will be strong and volatile in the near future, following the trend of crude oil prices [1]. 3.2期现行情 - The asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 0.11% to 4400 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4337 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4509 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 8479 to 261472 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 4090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to - 310 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still in a year - on - year negative growth situation. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to February 2026 was 11.4%, a significant improvement from - 2.2% from January to December 2025 [4]. - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most of the asphalt downstream industries'开工 rates increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9%, still lower than the level at the end of January [4]. - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained unchanged at 17.7% compared with the week of March 6, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was still at the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but the supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3489 - 3569 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production is 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The sample capacity utilization rate is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80% [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [9]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97% [9]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3489 - 3569 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of various asphalt futures contracts have increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract increased from 3268 to 3395, an increase of 3.89%; the 06 contract increased from 3372 to 3555, an increase of 5.43% [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; the in - plant inventory is 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [18]. - **Production and Sales**: The sample enterprise output is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%; the weekly shipment volume is 130,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20][21][23]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [25][26]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28][29]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of refining [31][32][33]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The report provides the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps in understanding the relative price relationships among different energy products [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the regional price differences of asphalt [38][39]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, showing the historical profit situations from 2019 to 2026 [41][44]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss volume, etc., providing a comprehensive view of the asphalt supply situation [47][50][53]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, in - plant inventory inventory ratio, etc., reflecting the inventory status of asphalt [69][73][76]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [79][82][84]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, classified by use), and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), which comprehensively reflects the asphalt demand situation [85][87][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107][108].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market has weak supply and demand. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation results and its significant impact on oil prices, it is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate accordingly, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [1][4] - During the Spring Festival, the supply in Shandong was at a low level, and the logistics was stagnant, resulting in a large decrease in shipments. The national shipments decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons, at a relatively low level [1] - During the Spring Festival, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, the import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is still significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - The asphalt trading was light during the Spring Festival. The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly today, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1] 2.期现行情 - The asphalt futures contract 2604 fell 0.03% to 3,346 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,303 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,354 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 12,386 to 103,840 lots [2] 3.基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3,290 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 56 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [3] 4.基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, some major refineries in the south produce intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - October 2025, but it is still negative [4] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation [4] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [4] - As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The overall supply pressure will be reduced in the next week. [8] - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. [8] - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. [9] - In terms of the basis, on February 4th, the Shandong spot price is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. It is considered neutral. [9] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It is considered bullish. [9] - In terms of the disk, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. It is considered bullish. [9] - Regarding the main positions, the main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is considered bearish. [9] - The overall expectation is that the refinery's recent production plan has been cut, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2701 will fluctuate in the range of 3,327 - 3,395. [9] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support. [11] - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. [12] - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery on the demand side is weak. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The domestic refinery asphalt production plan in February 2026 is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week. [8] - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. The overall demand is lower than the historical average. [8] - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. [9] - Basis: On February 4th, the Shandong spot price is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. It is considered neutral. [9] - Inventory: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It is considered bullish. [9] - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. It is considered bullish. [9] - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is considered bearish. [9] - Expectation: The refinery's recent production plan has been cut, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2701 will fluctuate in the range of 3,327 - 3,395. [9] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026. [19][20][21] - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026. [23][24] - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026. [27] - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026. [30][31] - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026. [34] 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the historical price trends of East China and Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2026. [36][37] 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026. [40] - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026. [43][44] - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026. [45][46] - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026. [48][49] - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026. [52] - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026. [54][56] - **Refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025. [57][59] - **Capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026. [60][61] - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026. [63][64] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026. [66][67] - **Social inventory and refinery inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026. [70][71] - **Refinery inventory - to - stock ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026. [74][75] - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025. [77][78] - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026. [80][81] - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025. [83][84] - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025. [86][87] - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025. [89][90] - **New local special bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025. [91] - **Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024. [91] - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025. [93][94][96] - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026. [98][99] - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: It shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026. [101][102] - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, TPR for shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026. [104][105][106] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory. [108]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming looser. Sanctions and potential agreements may increase supply pressure, causing oil prices to drop to a new low for the year [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will limit upside in the medium term. For low-sulfur fuel oil, it is expected to remain weak in the medium term despite some short-term supports [2]. - The asphalt market continues to be under pressure due to weak oil prices and fundamentals, with demand showing a north-south divide [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EU announced new sanctions against Russia on the 15th. US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a sharp decline in its oil exports. Market concerns about increased Russian oil supply after a potential agreement are pressuring oil prices [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitical factors affect supply, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand from refineries and shipping may provide some support [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production is expected to shrink in December, potentially increasing import demand. Seasonal consumption and unstable overseas refineries may support crack spreads in the short term, but it will remain weak in the medium term [2]. Asphalt - The spot price of asphalt dropped significantly last night, and the futures market followed suit. Demand shows a north-south divide, and the market continues to be under pressure [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 3, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The oil price lacks support, asphalt supply and demand are weak, the spot price has corrected again, and the short - term market is cautious, with a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3027 yuan/ton, closing at 3007 yuan/ton, with a high of 3040 yuan/ton, a low of 3003 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%, and a trading volume of 22.29 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3020 yuan/ton, closing at 3012 yuan/ton, with a high of 3033 yuan/ton, a low of 3004 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 8.05 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Today, asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, East China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased, while those in other regions were generally stable [6] - **Supply**: Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to continue producing asphalt after a brief resumption. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly [6] - **Demand**: Cold air has affected most parts of China again. Road demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to be stable [6] Group 5: Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. After the asphalt futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton and continued to decline, the low - price in the Shandong asphalt market dropped below 2900 yuan/ton, widening the price difference with East China. Both the futures and Shandong supply pressured the East China spot price. Today, the ex - factory price of some agents at Jinling was adjusted down to 3300 yuan/ton, driving the market price down [7] - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2880 - 3470 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Although international oil prices rebounded, the asphalt futures trend was weak, continuously affecting the spot market sentiment. In addition, snow and rain in some parts of Shandong today restricted demand release, and local refineries and traders continued to lower their quotes, driving the Shandong market price down [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil price has no support, the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, the basis has significantly narrowed, and the market will mainly move in a volatile manner [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3043 yuan/ton, the highest was 3068 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3024 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.56%, and the trading volume was 18.79 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3046 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3037 yuan/ton, the highest was 3060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3022 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.78%, and the trading volume was 8.55 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of asphalt in Shandong continued to decline, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to resume asphalt production after a brief restart. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Cold air has affected most parts of China again, with road demand in the Northeast and Northwest stagnant, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to remain stable [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2960 - 3470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply of asphalt spot resources in the Shandong market is abundant, some refineries are eager to sell contracts to preempt market demand in advance, and the quotes of some brand resources by traders have been lowered, leading to a continued downward trend in prices [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The demand in the East China market continued to be weak and stable, the social inventory shipments were stable and the inventory decreased, and the overall inventory of refineries also decreased as some refineries had previously shut down. However, the asphalt production of Zhenhai and Jinling was large at the end of the month, the overall market supply was abundant, and the truck - transportation price of the main refinery in Ningbo was lowered today, so the price in the East China market is expected to decline [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, remaining flat month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point. [8] - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support. [8] - The basis on November 24 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. [8] - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 79.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory is 64.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing, which is neutral. [8] - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, which is bearish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is also bearish. [8] - Overall, due to the recent production cut by refineries, the supply pressure is reduced. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains flat. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086. [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side production shows changes, and demand is below the historical average. Cost - side profit and crude oil trends are analyzed. [8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot price and the 01 contract basis on November 24 are presented, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [8] - **Inventory**: Social, in - plant, and port inventories show different trends of de - stocking and stocking. [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025. [18][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented. [26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are analyzed. [29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [48] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are presented. [56] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is shown. [64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [67][68] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown. [71] - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented. [74] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are shown, as well as the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025. [77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [89] - **New Local Special Bond Trend**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [90] - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2024 is shown. [90] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales are presented. [93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [98] - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January to November 2025 are presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and output. [107]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market sentiment of asphalt remains cautious due to weak rigid demand The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term as oil prices lack support and asphalt's supply - demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed after the recent decline [6][7] Group 4: Market Analysis 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3055 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3076 yuan/ton, a low of 3047 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 18.37 million lots BU2512 opened at 3069 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3081 yuan/ton, a low of 3050 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 0.86 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Prices in Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions declined, while prices in Shandong rebounded slightly, and other regions remained stable The overall rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [6] - Supply: Some refineries have production changes, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rise slightly [7] - Demand: Demand shows regional differentiation Northeast and Northwest regions have reached the annual low in rigid demand, North China and Shandong maintain stable demand, and South China's demand is expected to be stable [7] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 2980 - 3620 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day The rebound of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosts the market, and the price increase may release downstream demand [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3150 - 3320 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day The new contract price of PetroChina's asphalt is undetermined, and the market is cautious The price decline is due to the reduction of contract quotes from Jingbo Hainan's warehouse [8] 3. Data Overview - Data includes South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]