光期研究 2 0 2 6年1月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：成本端扰动增多，聚酯跟随成本波动 p 2 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：跟随原油价格震荡，地缘扰动原油价格 | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：关注装置检修情况 | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：印度BIS认证取消 | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游产成品库存去化 | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求面临考验 | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 2022/01/03 2023/01/03 2024/01/03 2025/01/03 PTA 3500 4000 45 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3, the company achieved revenue of $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding market expectations (Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.48 billion) [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6%, primarily impacted by rising tariffs, increased discounts, and foreign exchange losses [2][6] - Operating profit margin fell by 3.5 percentage points to 17.0%, while net profit decreased by 13% to $310 million, with a net profit margin of 12.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - By region, FY2025Q3 revenue for the U.S./North America/Greater China was $1.38 billion/-2% /$1.73 billion/-3% /$510 million/+42%, with Greater China benefiting from e-commerce growth and offline store expansion, while North America faced pressure due to weak store traffic, declining average transaction value, and lower conversion rates [7] - By channel, FY2025Q3 revenue from direct sales/e-commerce was $1.21 billion/+$0.107 billion/+13%, with direct sales growth slowing sequentially, while e-commerce maintained strong growth [7] - By category, FY2025Q3 revenue for women's/men's/other products was $1.64 billion/+6% /$600 million/+8% /$320 million/+12%, showing steady performance across categories [7] Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory increased by 11% year-on-year to $2 billion, with expectations for unit inventory growth in FY2026Q4 and dollar inventory growth in double digits year-on-year [12] - The company slightly raised its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue of $10.962 to $11.047 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (previous guidance was $10.85 to $11 billion, a 2% to 4% increase) [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - For FY2025Q2 (May 5, 2025 - August 3, 2025), the company achieved revenue of $2.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, which was slightly below market expectations (Bloomberg consensus expected $2.54 billion). The gross margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 58.5%, primarily due to increased discounts and tariffs leading to a 0.7 percentage point decline in product profit margins. The SG&A expense ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points, dragging down the net profit margin by 1.9 percentage points to 14.7% [2][5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region showed that Greater China continued to experience high growth, while North America saw a slowdown. In FY2025Q2, revenue in the U.S./Canada/North America/Greater China grew by -0.5%/+1%/+1%/+24% year-on-year, with Greater China benefiting from continuous store openings and increased brand awareness. The U.S. market faced pressure mainly due to weak demand in the high-end apparel sector. By channel, offline/e-commerce revenue grew by +3%/+9% year-on-year, with offline revenue growth slowing and e-commerce maintaining good growth [10] Inventory Situation - Inventory continued to grow, with an expected slowdown in inventory growth in FY2026Q1. By the end of FY2025Q2, the company's inventory increased by 21% year-on-year to $1.72 billion. The increase in inventory was mainly due to excess seasonal stock, and the company aims to clear this stock before the end of the year. It is anticipated that inventory growth will be low double digits in FY2025Q3, with overall inventory growth maintained, and a slowdown in inventory growth expected in FY2026Q1 [10] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have negatively impacted gross margins and operating profit margins. The company plans to mitigate the impact of tariffs through cost control, pricing adjustments, and negotiations with suppliers [10] Performance Guidance - The company has lowered its full-year guidance, now expecting FY2025 revenue to be between $10.85 billion and $11.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% to 4% (previous guidance was $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, with Bloomberg consensus expecting $11.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%). Revenue in North America is expected to decline by 1% to remain flat, while revenue in China is projected to grow by 20% to 25%. The full-year gross margin is expected to decrease by 3 percentage points, with EPS revised down to between $12.77 and $12.97. For FY2025Q3, revenue is expected to be between $2.47 billion and $2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% to 4%, with gross margin expected to decrease by 4.1 percentage points [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the lower - than - expected arrival of rapeseed, the increase in rapeseed imports, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to have a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend [8][13]. - The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is under short - term control, but the upside potential may be limited due to the lack of tariff on rapeseed imports [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The arrival of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased from a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [20][22][24]. - Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. The rapeseed meal futures price recovered from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuated slightly, with a relatively high premium [32][34]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the supply of the domestic rapeseed market has improved. The annual rapeseed output in Canada has decreased slightly, and the global rapeseed output has also decreased slightly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators [17][19]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: It includes the production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimps, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports [26][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 102, indicating a discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 15,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 228% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.06% [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Futures are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with the RM2509 contract ranging above 2600. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [13][14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has recovered from the bottom and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. The KDJ and MACD indicators show a slightly bullish short - term trend, but the upside potential may be limited [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soda ash futures prices remains weakly volatile due to supply decline from equipment maintenance, weak downstream demand, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply. The weak demand for architectural glass also suppresses the continuous upward momentum of soda ash futures prices [8]. - The short - term rebound space of glass is limited, and it is expected to operate with low - level volatility. The glass market is in the traditional rainy season, with weakening orders, high supply, falling costs, and continuous inventory accumulation. The real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data on June 26**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated strongly. The closing price was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 1.72%, with a daily reduction of 32,209 lots. Other contracts also showed certain price increases [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamental Situation**: In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash output dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and was still at a high level this year. The weekly capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The shipment volume was 676,500 tons, a 5.29% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1,766,900 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Glass Fundamental Situation**: In the traditional rainy season, glass processing orders weakened slightly. Supply remained high, costs declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The real - estate completion stage had not improved substantially, and the spot market had intense price competition with declining transaction prices [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides price trend charts of active soda ash and glass contracts, as well as data on the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China and flat - glass production, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the black - series commodity futures rose as a whole. The double - coking futures rebounded sharply after significant declines, with coking coal rising over 7%. However, the market's core contradiction lies in the dual pressures of weakened off - season demand and cost collapse, and the fundamentals of double - coking are difficult to improve in the short term. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom, and previous short positions at low levels should exit and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures rose overall. The rebar closed at 2974 yuan/ton, up 1.57%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3097 yuan/ton, up 1.61%; the iron ore closed at 704.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures rebounded sharply, with coking coal rising over 7% [1] Market Analysis - The double - coking futures hit a nearly 9 - year low. With the intensification of capital game sentiment and the expected reduction in Mongolia's exports, bulls increased positions last night, and short - covering this afternoon further pushed up the prices. The main contract of coking coal once soared to 772.5 points, and coke reached 1375 points, driving up related industrial products. The coking coal 2509 contract finally rose over 7%, and the trading volume increased by 813,000 lots to 1.429 million lots, a record high. The main logic of coal bears is the difficult - to - ease pattern of high supply and weak demand. Currently in the off - season of steel demand, steel demand is hard to improve significantly, reducing the demand for raw material procurement. Coke sales pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of a third price cut. The coking coal market has poor purchasing sentiment, and coal mines face sales and inventory pressure [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Double - coking: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core Viewpoints This week, as the supply of crude oil tightened and oil prices rose, asphalt prices also increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures price strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventory levels and a generally positive outlook. The supply in the north was tight, while that in the east and south was relatively loose. The positives were low inventory levels, scarce and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April's production schedule. The negatives were the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and Sinopec's price cuts. The fundamentals improved slightly, with short - term stability expected. Inventory is still projected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to long - positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract. Also, monitor the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures price fluctuated, and the crack spread profit was at a neutral level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong rose slightly. The daily asphalt production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1] Weekly Data | Date | East China Spot Low | Shandong Spot Low | Northeast Spot Low | Futures Price | Main Basis | Spread between Futures Main and Venezuelan Maya Crude Cost | South Korea CIF East China | South Korea's East China Price in RMB | Shandong Coking Feedstock | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/04/02 | 3600 | 3560 | 3900 | 3658 | -58 | -67 | 465 | 4086 | 4630 | | 2025/04/03 | 3650 | 3550 | 3900 | 3610 | 20 | 138 | 465 | 4091 | 4630 | | 2025/04/07 | 3650 | 3350 | 3850 | 3376 | 54 | 219 | 465 | 4096 | 4630 | | 2025/04/08 | 3650 | 3340 | 3800 | 3321 | 99 | 236 | 465 | 4099 | 4400 | | 2025/04/09 | 3550 | 3250 | 3800 | 3232 | 98 | - | 465 | 4101 | 4410 | | Change | -100 | -90 | 0 | -89 | -1 | - | 0 | 2 | 10 | [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, affected by the global market shock, black - series commodity futures fell collectively. Currently, steel mills are still in the resumption cycle, which provides some support for iron ore prices in the short term. However, considering that trade frictions will significantly impact market risk appetite and finished - product valuations, the progress of steel mill resumption may slow down further, and iron ore may have a large correction space. Meanwhile, the market has begun to expect relevant policies to support domestic demand, which may interfere with unilateral trading [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all decreased. Rebar closed at 3083 yuan/ton, down 2.59%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3261 yuan/ton, down 3.06%; iron ore closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, down 3.36%; coking coal and coke also closed weakly [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 22.08%. The daily average pig iron output was 238.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. Terminal demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces continued, supporting the actual demand for iron ore. However, due to recent global trade friction escalation, the market is not optimistic about the future steel mill production expectations [1]. Supply - From March 31 to April 6, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.531 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.739 million tons. The latest arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.591 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.132 million tons. The overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume continued to decline. The iron ore supply tightened slightly, which may support the futures price. The port iron ore inventory decreased, and the port clearance volume increased, which also had a positive impact on the market sentiment. Overall, the current iron ore supply pressure has eased slightly [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary - Currently, steel mills are in the resumption cycle, which supports iron ore prices in the short term. But due to trade frictions, the steel mill resumption progress may slow down, and iron ore may correct significantly. It is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [1].