交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降幅5 1% 同比 ， . ， . , | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增幅17 1% 。 . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为36 3734% 环比减少0 06个百分点 全国样 ， ， . . | | | | | 本企业出货31 36万吨 . | 环比增加31 10% 样本企业产量为60 7万吨 环比减少0 16% 样本企业 ， . . ， . , , | | | | | 装置检修量预估为69 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - **Output**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure. Next week, supply pressure may further decrease [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis shows that on September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Regarding inventory, social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and device maintenance volume changed accordingly, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all in a state of being lower than the historical average, with some showing a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. In - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the asphalt market on September 12, including current values, previous values, price changes, and price change percentages of different contracts, heavy - traffic asphalt market mainstream prices, registered warehouse receipts, basis, downstream demand opening rates, asphalt coking profit differences, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss amounts, weekly opening rates, and weekly inventories [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these commodities [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical price trend of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between the two production processes [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side - Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Supply - Side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt at ports [44][45]. - **Supply - Side - Production Volume**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall production situation of asphalt [47][48]. - **Supply - Side - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Supply - Side - Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Supply - Side - Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly opening rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [57][58]. - **Supply - Side - Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of enterprise maintenance on production [59][60]. - **Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Inventory - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [66][67]. - **Inventory - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72][73]. - **Demand - Side - Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand situation in related fields [78][79]. - **Demand - Side - Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand for asphalt [81][82]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [88][89][91]. - **Demand - Side - Asphalt Opening Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Opening Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the building asphalt and modified asphalt opening rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [96][97]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Opening Situation**: The historical trends of the opening rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market has limited contradictions, and spot prices remain stable. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, with low inventory and a continuous de - stocking trend at refineries and in the social sector. The cost of asphalt is still supported by short - term volatile and strong crude oil prices, but there is potential downward pressure on the oil market due to possible further OPEC production increases. The asphalt market lacks fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of falling oil prices on the futures market after the rebound of the futures price [1]. - The strategy for asphalt is a unilateral oscillation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,550 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 93,085 lots, a decrease of 12,775 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 101,178 lots, a decrease of 51,331 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt according to Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,510 - 3,820 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in the Shandong market rose slightly, while prices in other regions remained generally stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, and Northwest China), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, and near - month spread), futures trading volume and open interest (unilateral and main contract), domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: With an increase in short - term maintenance volume and a decrease in rainy weather in the future, it was expected that asphalt would improve marginally. However, demand was still restricted by the capital side. It was anticipated that asphalt would have difficulty in having an independent market and would mainly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, the overall trend of asphalt was volatile, following the trend of the cost - side crude oil [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The decline in refinery operation rate led to a drop in refinery inventories. However, the social inventory, which had been having difficulty in destocking, still showed no sign of a sustainable decline. As the peak season deepened, it would limit the upward space of asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, the refinery operation rate decreased, but it is expected to rise next week. Currently, asphalt has entered the peak season. The upward space depends on whether demand can drive down the social inventory. However, due to the restriction of the capital side on demand, it is expected that there will be little room for a significant upward movement, and it will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 01 Weekly View - Analyzed last week's and this week's views on asphalt market trends, taking into account factors such as maintenance volume, rainy weather, capital - side restrictions, refinery supply and demand, and inventory changes [7]. 3.2 02 Data Overview 3.2.1 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - Presented data on asphalt futures price trends, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU2509 - BU2512), and basis in the East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Showed data on asphalt plant operation rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Displayed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators, with data from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in the East China and South China regions, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on Shandong's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on East China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on South China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - Listed refineries under maintenance, including details such as production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacity, maintenance start and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2561 tons and a maintenance loss of 682,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and this trend may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, with varying trends in different types of asphalt and related product开工率 [8]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase from the previous period, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is slightly positive, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the market trend is neutral, the main position is slightly positive. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 32.838%, a 2.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a 6.80% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 648,000 tons, an 11.15% increase. Next week, supply pressure may be further reduced [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.7%, a 0.07 - percentage - point decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.9855%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 28.33%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30.6%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: On August 26, the Shandong spot price is 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.292 million tons, a 3.79% decrease; the in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a 0.70% increase; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 15,000 tons, a 21.05% decrease [9]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have reduced production, supply pressure is alleviated, demand recovery is less than expected, inventory is decreasing, and crude oil cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base Difference Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt base differences from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts display the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The chart shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The chart shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [48][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The chart shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The chart shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 [72][73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [77][76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 - 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: Charts show the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory data [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is increasing as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, with current demand below historical average levels. - Inventory is continuously decreasing, while crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the short - term cost support. - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - In May 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The total output of sample enterprises was 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. 3.1.2 Demand - The current demand for asphalt is below historical average levels. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. 3.1.3 Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.4 Basis - On June 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3695 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 207 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; factory inventory was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [9]. 3.1.6 Expectation - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and inventory data of weekly inventory, including social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [16][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis 3.3.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [42][44]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工率 from 2023 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt refinery maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74][75]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Analysis - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volume from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [77][78][80]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][93][94]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use (building asphalt and modified asphalt), and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 [98][101][103]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including asphalt monthly production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The decline in asphalt production at major refineries combined with further improvement in demand makes short - term bullish oscillations more likely. The recent bullish oscillations in the asphalt market are mainly supported by the continuous improvement of the supply - demand situation. In the short term, the supply has significantly contracted, and the factory inventory has decreased, which further supports the spot price. The improvement in weather conditions has also led to an expectation of improved rigid demand for asphalt. Overall, the short - term market is likely to continue its bullish oscillations, but the upward and downward spaces are limited. The future key variables include refinery restart progress, the end time of the southern rainy season and the availability of project funds in the north, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - The strategy is to take a long - position approach on dips in the unilateral market and consider widening the asphalt crack spread after it retraces. The fluctuation range of BU is given as [3300, 3700] [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 9.4% to 52.9 million tons, mainly due to some refineries switching to producing residual oil or halting production. The capacity utilization rate dropped to 31.7% (a 3.3% decrease from the previous period). The import volume increased by 6.7% in April, with resources from Southeast Asia and South Korea arriving at ports in South and East China. The maintenance loss of equipment increased by 5.1% to 75.8 million tons, with refineries in the northwest, north, and Shandong regions undergoing concentrated maintenance [4]. - From January to December 2025, the asphalt supply shows fluctuations. The total supply in May is 234 million tons, with an 8.27% decrease from the previous month and a 14.82% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - According to different statistical calibers, the theoretical profits of asphalt production in various types of refineries this week have declined. Next week, asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, and the operating range of crude oil may move downward, with potential for improved asphalt production efficiency [69]. - As of May 22, 2025, the theoretical processing profit of Shandong local refineries' delayed coking units was 141.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.83 yuan/ton (+61.61%) and a year - on - year decrease of 165.01 yuan/ton (-53.89%) [70]. Demand - The continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed the rigid demand for asphalt, and road construction has been hindered, resulting in a week - on - week decline in demand in the south. In the north, due to tight project funds, the construction progress is slow, and only low - priced resources have achieved decent sales. The refinery's shipment volume increased by 10.9% week - on - week, but the demand side lacks continuous support [4]. - The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 43.5 million tons, a 10.9% increase from the previous period. The stable production of major refineries in the east and south regions, with shipments mainly by ship, has driven the increase in regional shipment volume. In Shandong, the shutdown of Lanqiao Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in shipment volume this week [83]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale of new local government special bonds nationwide reached 960.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 326.1 billion yuan (+51.4%). The issuance scale accounts for 21.8% of the annual special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating that fiscal policy continues the characteristic of "front - loaded efforts" [90]. Inventory - The factory inventory decreased by 3.6%, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China as refineries fulfilled contract shipments. The social inventory increased by 0.9% due to the concentrated arrival of ships in East China and insufficient terminal consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. - The total domestic asphalt social inventory was 185.9 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from May 15. During the statistical period, the social inventory continued to decline, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China [92]. Price Difference - In the Shandong region, the basis fluctuated widely during the week and finally dropped by 14 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. In the East China region, the basis weakened oscillatingly, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4 yuan. In the South China region, the basis stabilized weakly, and the weekly discount narrowed by 14 yuan. In the Southwest region, the basis rebounded in a V - shape, with a cumulative weekly slight decline of 4 yuan but still remaining at a high level [11]. - The M1 - M3 spread narrowed from 52 points to 50 points, and the M1 - M6 spread shrank from 251 points to 230 points, indicating a weakening of the forward discount structure. The M1 - M9 spread fluctuated within a range of 34 points (255 - 289) during the week [19]. - The spot prices of asphalt in North and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The reduction in the market circulation volume in some regions has supported the spot price of asphalt. Although the crude oil price continued to move within a range, the tight market circulation volume of asphalt in some regions recently has provided positive support for the domestic average asphalt price, which has continued to rise [27]. - The import spread of foreign - sourced asphalt further weakened [36].