交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.838%，环比减少2.40个百分点，全 国样本企业出货23.73万吨，环比减少4.50%,样本企业产量为54.8万吨，环比减少6.80%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为64.8万吨，环比增加11.15%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下 周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.7%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is increasing as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, with current demand below historical average levels. - Inventory is continuously decreasing, while crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the short - term cost support. - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - In May 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The total output of sample enterprises was 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. 3.1.2 Demand - The current demand for asphalt is below historical average levels. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. 3.1.3 Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.4 Basis - On June 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3695 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 207 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; factory inventory was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [9]. 3.1.6 Expectation - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and inventory data of weekly inventory, including social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [16][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis 3.3.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [42][44]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工率 from 2023 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt refinery maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74][75]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Analysis - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volume from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [77][78][80]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][93][94]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use (building asphalt and modified asphalt), and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 [98][101][103]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including asphalt monthly production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The decline in asphalt production at major refineries combined with further improvement in demand makes short - term bullish oscillations more likely. The recent bullish oscillations in the asphalt market are mainly supported by the continuous improvement of the supply - demand situation. In the short term, the supply has significantly contracted, and the factory inventory has decreased, which further supports the spot price. The improvement in weather conditions has also led to an expectation of improved rigid demand for asphalt. Overall, the short - term market is likely to continue its bullish oscillations, but the upward and downward spaces are limited. The future key variables include refinery restart progress, the end time of the southern rainy season and the availability of project funds in the north, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - The strategy is to take a long - position approach on dips in the unilateral market and consider widening the asphalt crack spread after it retraces. The fluctuation range of BU is given as [3300, 3700] [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 9.4% to 52.9 million tons, mainly due to some refineries switching to producing residual oil or halting production. The capacity utilization rate dropped to 31.7% (a 3.3% decrease from the previous period). The import volume increased by 6.7% in April, with resources from Southeast Asia and South Korea arriving at ports in South and East China. The maintenance loss of equipment increased by 5.1% to 75.8 million tons, with refineries in the northwest, north, and Shandong regions undergoing concentrated maintenance [4]. - From January to December 2025, the asphalt supply shows fluctuations. The total supply in May is 234 million tons, with an 8.27% decrease from the previous month and a 14.82% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - According to different statistical calibers, the theoretical profits of asphalt production in various types of refineries this week have declined. Next week, asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, and the operating range of crude oil may move downward, with potential for improved asphalt production efficiency [69]. - As of May 22, 2025, the theoretical processing profit of Shandong local refineries' delayed coking units was 141.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.83 yuan/ton (+61.61%) and a year - on - year decrease of 165.01 yuan/ton (-53.89%) [70]. Demand - The continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed the rigid demand for asphalt, and road construction has been hindered, resulting in a week - on - week decline in demand in the south. In the north, due to tight project funds, the construction progress is slow, and only low - priced resources have achieved decent sales. The refinery's shipment volume increased by 10.9% week - on - week, but the demand side lacks continuous support [4]. - The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 43.5 million tons, a 10.9% increase from the previous period. The stable production of major refineries in the east and south regions, with shipments mainly by ship, has driven the increase in regional shipment volume. In Shandong, the shutdown of Lanqiao Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in shipment volume this week [83]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale of new local government special bonds nationwide reached 960.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 326.1 billion yuan (+51.4%). The issuance scale accounts for 21.8% of the annual special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating that fiscal policy continues the characteristic of "front - loaded efforts" [90]. Inventory - The factory inventory decreased by 3.6%, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China as refineries fulfilled contract shipments. The social inventory increased by 0.9% due to the concentrated arrival of ships in East China and insufficient terminal consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. - The total domestic asphalt social inventory was 185.9 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from May 15. During the statistical period, the social inventory continued to decline, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China [92]. Price Difference - In the Shandong region, the basis fluctuated widely during the week and finally dropped by 14 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. In the East China region, the basis weakened oscillatingly, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4 yuan. In the South China region, the basis stabilized weakly, and the weekly discount narrowed by 14 yuan. In the Southwest region, the basis rebounded in a V - shape, with a cumulative weekly slight decline of 4 yuan but still remaining at a high level [11]. - The M1 - M3 spread narrowed from 52 points to 50 points, and the M1 - M6 spread shrank from 251 points to 230 points, indicating a weakening of the forward discount structure. The M1 - M9 spread fluctuated within a range of 34 points (255 - 289) during the week [19]. - The spot prices of asphalt in North and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The reduction in the market circulation volume in some regions has supported the spot price of asphalt. Although the crude oil price continued to move within a range, the tight market circulation volume of asphalt in some regions recently has provided positive support for the domestic average asphalt price, which has continued to rise [27]. - The import spread of foreign - sourced asphalt further weakened [36].