Report Overview - The report is the "Asphalt Daily" dated September 22, 2025, and it provides an analysis of the asphalt market including relevant data, market situations, and market outlooks [1]. 1. Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price dropped from 3421 to 3401, a decrease of 20 or -0.58% [2]. - BU2512 price decreased from 3374 to 3352, a drop of 22 or -0.65% [2]. - BU2601 price fell from 3353 to 3322, a decline of 31 or -0.92% [2]. - SC2510 price went down from 487.0 to 483.0, a decrease of 4.0 or -0.82% [2]. - Brent first - line price dropped from 66.76 to 66.46, a decrease of 0.3 or -0.45% [2]. - Main contract positions increased from 23.2 to 23.6 million lots, an increase of 0.4 or 1.83% [2]. - Main contract trading volume decreased from 18.0 to 16.7 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 or -6.92% [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 63680 to 59380 tons, a decrease of 4300 or -6.75% [2]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 spread increased from 21.00 to 30.00, an increase of 9.00 or 42.86% [2]. - BU11 - 12 spread increased from 47.00 to 49.00, an increase of 2.00 or 4.26% [2]. - Shandong - main contract basis increased from 276.00 to 288.00, an increase of 12.00 or 4.35% [2]. - East China - main contract basis increased from 126.00 to 148.00, an increase of 22.00 or 17.46% [2]. - South China - main contract basis increased from 116.00 to 138.00, an increase of 22.00 or 18.97% [2]. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3510, a decrease of 10.00 or -0.28% [2]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3500 [2]. - South China market price remained unchanged at 3490 [2]. - Shandong gasoline price decreased from 7483 to 7464, a decrease of 19.00 or -0.25% [2]. - Shandong diesel price increased from 6438 to 6453, an increase of 15.00 or 0.23% [2]. - Shandong petroleum coke price remained unchanged at 2860 [2]. - Diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at -6.5 [2]. - Exchange - rate mid - price decreased from 7.1128 to 7.1106, a decrease of 0.00 or -0.03% [2]. Spreads and Profits - Asphalt refinery profit increased from -26.81 to -16.44, an increase of 10.37 or 38.69% [2]. - Refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 350.43 to 367.40, an increase of 16.97 or 4.84% [2]. - BU - SC crack spread increased from -569.26 to -559.53, an increase of 9.73 or 1.71% [2]. - Gasoline spot - Brent spread increased from 949.74 to 950.03, an increase of 0.29 or 0.03% [2]. - Diesel spot - Brent spread increased from 714.97 to 745.34, an increase of 30.37 or 4.25% [2]. 2. Market Analysis Market Overview - On September 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3782 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - In North China, the main refineries of 70 and 90 asphalt had limited shipments, and the market price was stable [5]. - In Shandong, the demand was average, and there were many low - price resources. The price of the main refineries' asphalt might be lowered [5]. - In South China, the overall refinery inventory was controllable, supporting price stability [5]. - In East China, the main refineries had stable shipments under preferential policies, but there were still many low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and the market trading was tepid [5]. - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3630 - 3750 yuan/ton. Rainfall inhibited demand, and with the resumption of production of some refineries, the supply was sufficient. The spot price dropped to about 3470 yuan/ton, and the price of the main refineries might be loosened [5]. - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3650 - 3650 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was tepid, and the cost was average. The downstream users preferred low - price resources in Zhenjiang. In the short term, the asphalt price might show a weak trend [5]. - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, high - speed projects were rushing to work, and some social warehouses increased shipments before the typhoon. In Guangxi, the project construction was stable, and the local refinery inventory was low. The typhoon weather had a slight impact on project construction and shipments, but the overall inventory pressure was not large, which was beneficial for price stability [6]. Market Outlook - Oil prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking effective support at the cost end [7]. - The weekly asphalt production has been increasing, and the industry chain is still destocking. The current demand level is basically the same as in previous years, and the peak - season expectation has been fulfilled [7]. - The refinery processing profit is acceptable, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to further increase. The continuous destocking of social inventory increases the supply, and the asphalt supply - demand tends to be loose, with relatively high valuation [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the crack spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3450 [7]. 3. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local - refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.08%. The asphalt market lacks obvious drivers, with short - term supply being tight and demand being stable month - on - month. In a situation of weak supply and demand, refinery inventories are rising steadily, and social inventories are steadily decreasing. Spot prices are expected to run weakly, and crack spreads are dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [5][8] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price was 3463 yuan/ton on September 11, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day; BU2512 was 3413 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.41%; BU2601 was 3390 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.41%. SC2510 was 489.2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Brent first - line was 67.09, down 0.04% [2] - The main contract position was 253,000 lots, up 8,000 lots or 3.27% from the previous day; the trading volume was 186,000 lots, up 36,000 lots or 23.94%. The number of warehouse receipts was 64,460 tons, down 400 tons or 0.62% [2] Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; BU11 - 12 was 50 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or - 1.96%. The Shandong - main contract basis was 257 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or - 5.17%; the East China - main contract basis was 137 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or - 9.27%; the South China - main contract basis was 87 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or - 28.10% [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price was 3540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the East China market price was 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the South China market price was 3500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.57% [2] - Shandong gasoline was 7557 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.13%; Shandong diesel was 6478 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.14%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The diluted asphalt discount was - 6 yuan/ton, unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price was 7.1034, down 0.04% [2] Spreads and Profits - The asphalt refinery profit was - 32.57 yuan/ton, up 6.29 yuan/ton or 16.18% from the previous day; the refined oil comprehensive profit was 390.01 yuan/ton, up 10.59 yuan/ton or 2.79% [2] - BU - SC crack spread was - 550.81 yuan/ton, down 9.51 yuan/ton or - 1.76%. Gasoline spot - Brent was 1002.36 yuan/ton, up 12.39 yuan/ton or 1.25%; diesel spot - Brent was 737.49 yuan/ton, up 11.51 yuan/ton or 1.58% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Market Overview - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3800 yuan/ton. Crude oil and the futures market continued to be favorable, and the demand for terminal projects increased, which was beneficial to the firmness of asphalt prices. However, most traders were executing low - price contracts, and the short - term price increase space was limited [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3700 yuan/ton. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical resumed asphalt production, and the supply increased. Due to insufficient demand, the shipping price of a Sinopec refinery was expected to be lowered, and the short - term price might show a weak trend [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price fell 25 yuan/ton to 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon and rainfall, the shipment was average, and the price of a PetroChina refinery was lowered by 50 yuan/ton. In the future, the rainfall might decrease, and the price might be stable [5][6] Market Outlook - The supply of asphalt was short - term tight, and the demand was stable month - on - month. In a situation of weak supply and demand, refinery inventories were rising steadily, and social inventories were steadily decreasing. The asphalt itself lacked obvious drivers, the spot price was expected to run weakly, and the crack spread was dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract was expected to be between 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of BU main - contract closing price, main - contract position, East China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline price, and Shandong refinery diesel price, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16]