交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为29.9017%，环比减少0.18个百分点，全国样本企业出货25.342万吨，环比减少9.68%,样本企业 产量为49.9万吨，环比减少0.59%,样本企业装置检修量预估为94.4万吨，环比增加14.29%,本周炼厂有所减产， 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比减少0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为8.9781%，环比减少0.25个百分点，低于历 ...

2025年12月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环 比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨， 环比减少9.60%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为10.5658%，环比减少0.02个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为29%，环比减少5.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水 卷材开工率为33.8%，环比减少0.20个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under increasing pressure as refineries have increased production recently. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity increased, and the output of sample enterprises also increased [8]. - The demand side is weak. The current demand is below the historical average level, with the construction of various types of asphalt and related products showing low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. Although the daily processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased, the rising crude oil price is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3228 - 3270 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The refineries' increased production has raised supply pressure, and it may further increase next week. The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment of sample enterprises all changed, with the device maintenance volume decreasing [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt downstream products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong decreased by 18.59%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the cost in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract in the 3228 - 3270 range [10]. - Other factors: The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the 01 contract price is below the MA20, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts generally increased compared with the previous values, with different ranges of increase. The inventory situation also changed, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing. The operating rates of different regions and products also showed various trends [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. - Spread: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, providing comprehensive information for analyzing the market relationship [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which are important for understanding the profitability of the asphalt industry [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, crude oil price and production volume, refinery production, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume, comprehensively reflecting the supply situation of the asphalt market [45][47][50][53][56][59][62]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, which are crucial for understanding the inventory status of the asphalt market [65][69][72]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions, comprehensively reflecting the demand situation of the asphalt market [81][84][87][91][96][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt in different months, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side indicates that the total planned asphalt production in China in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure. [8] - The demand side shows that the current demand is below the historical average level, with different trends in the start - up rates of various types of asphalt and related products. [8] - In terms of cost, the processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term. [9] - It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating between 3521 - 3567. [10] - The factors affecting the market include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, and negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward trend of demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. [12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The total planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, a 3.835 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Sample enterprise production has increased, and refineries' production increases supply pressure. [8] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of different types of asphalt and related products show mixed trends, with the overall demand below the historical average. [8] - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 696.98 yuan/ton, a 4.00% decrease month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 760.1786 yuan/ton, a 10.25% decrease month - on - month. The cost support is expected to weaken. [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all decreasing. [10] - **Expected Trend**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with asphalt 2510 in the 3521 - 3567 range. [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, changes, and inventory of different asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on production, sales, and profit margins. [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions, showing the price differences between spot and futures. [20] - **Spread**: It includes the spread analysis of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and the ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil. [23][26][29][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market. [37] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Analyzes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread between asphalt and coking. [39][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Marey crude oil, local refinery asphalt production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume. [45][47][50][55][57][60][62] - **Inventory Analysis**: Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory - to - stock ratio, and import and export inventory. [65][69][72][75] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Analyzes the trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt. [75][78] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: Considers factors such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand), asphalt start - up rate, and downstream start - up conditions. [81][84][87][91][96][98][100] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data. [105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of asphalt is high, with refineries increasing production recently. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, and the current demand is below the historical average. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support has strengthened in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3583 - 3621 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is the high supply pressure and the weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 253900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 34.2761%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 57200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. The refineries have increased production recently, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, unchanged month - on - month and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 875.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. The rising crude oil prices are expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position has a net long position, and the long position has increased, showing a bullish situation [9]. - **Basis**: On July 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3785 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish situation [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 131900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 76100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 21000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.22%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, while the in - plant and port inventories are decreasing, showing a bullish situation [10]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's asphalt market, including the prices, changes, and trading volumes of different contracts, as well as indicators such as inventory, production, and开工率 [16][17]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It presents the historical weekly asphalt开工率 from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [64][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the price difference trend of imported Korean asphalt [74][75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales) [86][87][90]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98]. - **Downstream开工情况**: It presents the historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production [104][105].