1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the asphalt market is that the supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 2935 - 2985 [8][9]. - The supply side shows that the planned production volume in December 2025 decreased slightly compared with the previous month, but the production capacity utilization rate increased this week, and the refineries increased production, which may increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products mostly below the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The base - point situation on December 11 shows that the spot price in Shandong is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are in a state of continuous accumulation, showing a neutral situation [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprises' shipment volume is 280,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%, and the output is 502,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 826,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. The refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the crude oil is weakening, with the support expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Base - point**: On December 11, the spot price in Shandong is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%; the factory - level inventory is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 670,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory is continuously destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are continuously accumulating, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased production, increasing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; the inventory is flat; the crude oil is weakening, and the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating between 2935 - 2985 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including price changes, basis changes, and inventory changes compared with the previous period [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory - level inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [66][69]. - **Social Inventory and Factory - level Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory - level inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory - level Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory - level inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation** - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][80]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment, New Local Special Bonds, and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [102][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory - level inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average and remains sluggish due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term as crude oil prices decline. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2890 - 2942 in the short term. The overall fundamental outlook is bearish [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high price of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158,000 tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.4823%, a 3.056 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The national sample enterprise shipments are 262,100 tons, a 6.74% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production is 492,000 tons, an 11.56% month - on - month increase. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 866,000 tons, a 9.60% month - on - month decrease. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a 0.02 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a 5.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a 0.20 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a 2.60% month - on - month increase. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a 1.49% month - on - month increase. Asphalt processing losses are increasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the short - term support is expected to weaken [7]. - **Basis**: On December 2, the spot price in Shandong is 2960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is 39 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. This is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a 3.74% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory is 588,000 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month increase. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570,000 tons, a 28.75% month - on - month decrease. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, which is a neutral signal [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish signal [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional market price trends**: It shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil prices and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: It shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volumes from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Import - export situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price spreads from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [87][88][89]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][93][94]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use**: It presents the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - **Downstream capacity utilization situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production schedules [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average and is affected by the off - season, resulting in less - than - expected and sluggish demand [7]. - The cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term due to the decline in crude oil prices [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3085 - 3133 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 331,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98%. The sample enterprises' output is 556,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 608,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.05%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the decline of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On November 6th, the spot price in Shandong is 3100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a shift from long to short, showing a bearish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for spread trading analysis [22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in cross - commodity price analysis [33]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between different production processes [42]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which can reflect the supply situation in the market [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply of raw materials [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [49]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which can reflect the operating efficiency of the production side [58]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the supply in the market [60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, which are important indicators for analyzing the overall inventory situation [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can affect the domestic supply and demand balance [73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical spread trend of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for import cost analysis [76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which can be related to the demand for asphalt [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025, which can affect the demand for asphalt [85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream construction demand [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It presents the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the production and demand situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the demand in different application scenarios [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It presents the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream demand for asphalt [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, crude oil prices are rising, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3445 - 3487 [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 312600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The sample enterprise output was 701000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 601000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand side**: The construction start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of road - modified asphalt was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of waterproofing membranes was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and it is expected that cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 34 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. Factory inventory was 658000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 15000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5%. Social inventory continued to decline, factory inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and other data of various asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on inventory, production, start - up rate, etc. For example, the price of the 01 - contract increased by 0.18% compared with the previous value; the weekly start - up rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 41.64% compared with the previous value [14]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17]. 4. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - contract spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [19][20]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [22][23]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among these products [29][31]. 5. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [32][33]. 6. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [34][35]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [41][42]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply of asphalt [46][47]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **Start - up rate**: It shows the historical weekly start - up rate trends of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the asphalt industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical estimated trends of asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is important for understanding the overall inventory situation [61][62][63]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory structure [65][66]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [68][69]. - **Import - export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [71][72]. - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [74][75][76]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for petroleum - related products [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction**: It shows the historical investment trends in highway construction from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [83][84]. - **New local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt start - up rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93]. - **Asphalt start - up rate by use**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [95][96]. - **Downstream start - up situation**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproof - membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in different downstream applications [98][99][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of asphalt from January 2024 - September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand relationship [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. Demand recovery is underwhelming, with current demand below historical average levels. The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 312,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, and the output was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, and the loss of asphalt processing has decreased [7]. - **Basis**: On September 26th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 50 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%; factory inventory was 658,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.50%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing [7]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [7]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has increased, raising supply pressure. The overall demand is lower than expected despite the stimulation of the peak season. The inventory remains stable, and the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, and production data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, and production volume changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.07% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.58% [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [16][17]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [19][20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil through charts [22][23]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 through charts [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts [29][30][31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [32][33]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [34][35]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [46][47]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production volume trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts [61][62][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 through charts [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - The report shows the historical export and import volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [71][72]. - The report shows the historical price difference trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [74][75][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production volume trend of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts [83][84][85]. - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 through charts [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - The report shows the historical operating rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [92][93]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [95][96]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [98][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [103][104].