Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and this trend may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, with varying trends in different types of asphalt and related product开工率 [8]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase from the previous period, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is slightly positive, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the market trend is neutral, the main position is slightly positive. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 32.838%, a 2.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a 6.80% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 648,000 tons, an 11.15% increase. Next week, supply pressure may be further reduced [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.7%, a 0.07 - percentage - point decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.9855%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 28.33%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30.6%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: On August 26, the Shandong spot price is 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.292 million tons, a 3.79% decrease; the in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a 0.70% increase; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 15,000 tons, a 21.05% decrease [9]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have reduced production, supply pressure is alleviated, demand recovery is less than expected, inventory is decreasing, and crude oil cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base Difference Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt base differences from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts display the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The chart shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The chart shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [48][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The chart shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The chart shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 [72][73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [77][76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 - 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: Charts show the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory data [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is increasing as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, with current demand below historical average levels. - Inventory is continuously decreasing, while crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the short - term cost support. - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - In May 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The total output of sample enterprises was 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. 3.1.2 Demand - The current demand for asphalt is below historical average levels. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. 3.1.3 Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.4 Basis - On June 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3695 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 207 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; factory inventory was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [9]. 3.1.6 Expectation - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and inventory data of weekly inventory, including social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [16][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis 3.3.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [42][44]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工率 from 2023 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt refinery maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74][75]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Analysis - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volume from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [77][78][80]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][93][94]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use (building asphalt and modified asphalt), and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 [98][101][103]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including asphalt monthly production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].