Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Carbonate Lithium: Accumulation Pattern Continues, Focus on Upside Space" [1] - Report date: July 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The accumulation pattern of carbonate lithium continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [1] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking 1. Futures Market Data - 2507 contract: Closing price is 64,300, up 320 from T - 1; trading volume is 764, down 599 from T - 1; open interest is 5,575, down 2,135 from T - 1 [2] - 2509 contract: Closing price is 64,080, up 120 from T - 1; trading volume is 420,967, down 119,468 from T - 1; open interest is 334,057, up 8,483 from T - 1 [2] 2. Warehouse Receipts and Basis - Warehouse receipts: 22,880 lots, down 300 from T - 1 [2] - Basis: Spot - 2507 is - 2,200, up 130 from T - 1; Spot - 2509 is - 1,980, up 330 from T - 1; 2507 - 2509 is 220, up 200 from T - 1 [2] 3. Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China): Price is 652, up 20 from T - 1 [2] - Lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%): Price is 1,315, up 40 from T - 1 [2] - Battery - grade carbonate lithium: Price is 62,100, up 450 from T - 1 [2] - Industrial - grade carbonate lithium: Price is 60,500, up 450 from T - 1 [2] 4. Downstream Products - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): Price is 30,660, up 110 from T - 1 [2] - Ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type): Price is 105,460, up 50 from T - 1 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 61,638 yuan/ton, up 306 yuan/ton from the previous working day; average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the production of carbonate lithium is 18,123 tons, a decrease of 644 tons from last week; the industry - wide inventory is 138,347 tons, an increase of 1,510 tons from last week [3] - On July 3, 2025, it was rumored that two domestic lithium salt smelters would shut down for maintenance. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan and is initially planned to shut down for 2 months; a lithium salt plant in Sichuan is operating at full capacity [4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4]

2025 年 6 月 20 日 碳酸锂：累库有所加速，偏弱震荡延续 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 60,420 | -60 | -20 | 320 | -760 | -15,480 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 34,003 | -1,619 | -135,705 | -210,589 | -190,061 | 27,227 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 89,039 | -10,227 | -73,843 | -142,549 | -246,768 | 52,720 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The production high of lithium carbonate drives the continuation of inventory accumulation, and the lithium price is running weakly [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,440, down 1,240; the trading volume was 169,708, down 66,489; the open interest was 162,882, down 15,353. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 60,480, down 1,260; the trading volume was 154,540, down 14,192; the open interest was 238,580, up 22,026. The warehouse receipt volume was 32,383, down 454 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 210; the basis of spot - 2509 was 170; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was -40 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 631, up 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,225, up 15 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,650, up 150; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050, up 150; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 65,700, down 350 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,475, up 30; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,530, up 50; the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 52,500, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,801 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The lithium carbonate industry inventory this week was 133,549 tons, an increase of 1,117 tons from last week. Among them, the upstream inventory was 57,653 tons, the downstream inventory was 40,686 tons, and other inventory was 35,210 tons [2]. - **Power Battery Loading**: In May, China's power battery loading volume was 57.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1%. From January to May, the cumulative power battery loading volume was 241.4GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.4% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].