1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the reduction of the RKAB plan quota in Indonesia next year may lead to tight raw material supply, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the first quarter [3] - The production of ferronickel in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; the production capacity of refined nickel in China is large, and with the recent rebound of nickel prices and profit repair, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand [3] - The domestic nickel inventory shows an increasing trend, and the market mainly purchases on dips, with high spot premiums; the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3] - Technically, with high - position price fluctuations and large differences between long and short positions, the price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range adjustment in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA10, with the range of 140,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 142,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 560 yuan/ton; the spread between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,975 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 69,610 lots, a decrease of 6,282 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 62,473 lots, a decrease of 3,345 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 284,664 tons, a decrease of 72 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 48,180 tons (weekly), an increase of 1,530 tons; the total LME nickel cancelled warrants is 10,914 tons, a decrease of 1,236 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 41,584 tons, an increase of 432 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 145,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 145,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton; the basis of the NI main contract is 3,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,410 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 201.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.94 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 134.33 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,273.38 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 46.39 million tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.84 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons (monthly), an increase of 1,120 tons; the total output of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons (monthly), a decrease of 800 metal tons [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons (monthly), an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons (weekly), a decrease of 2,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's speech at Davos: Greenland is a core security interest of the United States, but the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US had reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and would not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being [3] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from certain major powers [3] - Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas [3] - Trump said that he may have selected a person to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, hopes to be like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates short - term shock adjustment of Shanghai nickel and suggests attention to the pressure of MA5. The fundamental situation shows that the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. Although there are potential variables in Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes, the recent impact on supply is limited. On the smelting side, the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively high. On the demand side, the production volume of stainless steel is expected to be high, and new energy vehicles contribute a small increase in demand. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 113,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,510 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,255 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 94,065 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,503 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 26,857 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,773 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,392 tons, with no change; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 44,677 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,169 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,528 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 38,261 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 432 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 450 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 960 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.26 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 143.17 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,455.87 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.84 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, with an increase of 2,400 tons [2]. Industry News - The US employment continues to cool down. In November, non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders estimate two interest rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment when weighing whether to cut interest rates again. The US Markit composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December accelerated its contraction, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy also showing weak performance. The macro - level shows that although the non - farm employment in the US in November exceeded expectations, the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a four - year high did not significantly change the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The central financial office said that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the current nickel market shows a trend of weak supply and demand. The domestic social inventory is increasing, while the overseas LME inventory is decreasing and the cancelled warrants are rising. Technically, with rising positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,630 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 860 yuan/ton; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 140 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 160 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 95,467 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,413 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 22,968 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,047 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 209,082 tons, with no change [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 299 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 12,312 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,178 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,170 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 204 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 620 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 192.79 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.41 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.49 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.57 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1932 billion tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 billion tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In July in the US, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation is still a concern [3]. - On August 1, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, the value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date (inclusive) will be restored [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Downstream players are purchasing on an as-needed basis, leading to a slight increase in domestic social inventories while overseas inventories remain stable. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Nickel is 121,140 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts for Shanghai Nickel is -130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,000 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai Nickel is 65,815 lots, down 7,104 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai Nickel is -11,996 lots, down 325 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 204,738 tons, up 1,176 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,922 tons, up 204 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 8,550 tons, up 66 tons; the warrant quantity for Shanghai Nickel is 20,605 tons, down 72 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 120,700 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is -540 yuan/ton, down 1,550 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -209.41 dollars/ton, down 1.78 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 871.84 million tons, up 112.61 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is down 3.96 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 1.35 million tons [3] Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose tariffs of 20% on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased by 26.7% year - on - year in June [3]