| | | 预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存增长趋势，市场逢 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 回调采买为主，现货升水高位；海外LME库存延续增长。技术面，持仓高位价格震荡，多空分歧较大，预 计宽幅调整为主。观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整，关注MA10争夺，区间14-14.8。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪镍产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 142500 | -560 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -240 | -130 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17975 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates short - term shock adjustment of Shanghai nickel and suggests attention to the pressure of MA5. The fundamental situation shows that the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. Although there are potential variables in Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes, the recent impact on supply is limited. On the smelting side, the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively high. On the demand side, the production volume of stainless steel is expected to be high, and new energy vehicles contribute a small increase in demand. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 113,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,510 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,255 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 94,065 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,503 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 26,857 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,773 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,392 tons, with no change; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 44,677 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,169 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,528 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 38,261 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 432 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 450 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 960 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.26 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 143.17 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,455.87 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.84 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, with an increase of 2,400 tons [2]. Industry News - The US employment continues to cool down. In November, non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders estimate two interest rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment when weighing whether to cut interest rates again. The US Markit composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December accelerated its contraction, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy also showing weak performance. The macro - level shows that although the non - farm employment in the US in November exceeded expectations, the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a four - year high did not significantly change the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The central financial office said that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [2].

国内社会库存增长；海外LME库存有所下降，注销仓单回升。技术面，持仓回升价格下跌，空头氛围偏强 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 | | | 免责声明 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-04 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ，关注MA60压力，预计短线震荡偏弱。操作上，建议暂时观望。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120630 | 860 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -140 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Downstream players are purchasing on an as-needed basis, leading to a slight increase in domestic social inventories while overseas inventories remain stable. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Nickel is 121,140 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts for Shanghai Nickel is -130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,000 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai Nickel is 65,815 lots, down 7,104 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai Nickel is -11,996 lots, down 325 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 204,738 tons, up 1,176 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,922 tons, up 204 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 8,550 tons, up 66 tons; the warrant quantity for Shanghai Nickel is 20,605 tons, down 72 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 120,700 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is -540 yuan/ton, down 1,550 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -209.41 dollars/ton, down 1.78 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 871.84 million tons, up 112.61 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is down 3.96 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 1.35 million tons [3] Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose tariffs of 20% on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased by 26.7% year - on - year in June [3]