2026年伊始，全球金属期货市场迎来强劲"开门红"。 全球工业金属涨势再度升级，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜、铝、锌、镍、锡、铅六大金属期货价格于 周二（1月6日）全线飙升，其中，LME铜期货周二创下了新高；LME镍期货盘中涨幅突破10%，周三 再度冲高至18800美元/吨。 铜价再创新高，需求持续升温 国内市场资金同步涌入有色金属赛道，1月7日，国内商品期市收盘跟涨，工业金属品种涨幅居前，沪镍 收盘涨停；沪锡、氧化铝分别收涨5.3%、4.97%。 "铜、镍等有色金属因供应担忧价格大涨。"一位金属期货分析师对记者称，短期内金属价格受供应扰动 和资金推动持续上涨。这轮工业金属的涨势能否持续，中长期仍需关注全球经济复苏节奏及供需再平衡 进程，若供应端扰动缓解或需求预期转弱，金属价格或将面临回调压力。 此外，近期委内瑞拉局势骤变，地缘突发事件引发全球资本市场对资源供应稳定性的担忧，也成为点燃 有色板块上涨的"导火索"，能源供应的不确定性进一步传导至有色产业链，有色板块冲高行情或继续演 绎。 "妖镍"领涨，供应担忧成主因 1月6日，LME期镍收盘上涨近9%，盘中涨幅一度突破10%，最高触及18785美元/吨，创下202 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 113800 | 1510 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | -40 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14255 | -40 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 94065 | -11503 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -26857 | -3773 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 253392 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 44677 | 2169 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 9528 | 0 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 38261 | -432 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 115300 | 550 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 115300 | 450 | | | 上海电解镍:CIF(提单)(日,美元/吨) | 85 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is seeking to permanently limit large positions in near-month contracts to mitigate the risk of short squeezes in a low inventory environment, reflecting a systemic restructuring to adapt to changes in the global metal market [1][3]. Group 1: Risk Mitigation - The proposed permanent near-month lending rules aim to prevent short squeeze risks associated with low inventory levels and large positions, as evidenced by past incidents like the LME nickel squeeze in 2022 and the copper inventory transfer in 2023 [3]. - LME copper inventory dropped significantly from 270,900 tons in early February to approximately 95,900 tons by the end of June, a decline of over 60%, which contributed to substantial price volatility in LME copper futures [3]. Group 2: New Rules and Regulations - In June, LME introduced temporary regulations limiting the total long positions held by traders in delivery month contracts to the available inventory, requiring excess positions to be closed or converted to zero premium lending within 24 hours [4]. - The new rules proposed for late October focus on "position control" and "liquidity supply," with specific thresholds for lending premiums based on the percentage of total inventory held [4][5]. Group 3: Market Impact - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these new rules will have both short-term and long-term effects, stabilizing price volatility in the short term while potentially reshaping trading logic in the long term [7][9]. - The new regulations are expected to enhance market transparency and reduce the potential for manipulative practices, leading to a more effective price discovery mechanism [7][9]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - LME's recent initiatives indicate a strategic focus on better serving the Chinese market, including establishing warehouses in Hong Kong and aligning offshore renminbi interest rates with other currencies [8]. - The LME is also optimizing its options market, including plans to convert American-style options to European-style options, which reflects ongoing efforts to enhance market efficiency [8]. Group 5: Regulatory Insights - The new rules from LME may serve as a regulatory reference for domestic futures markets in China, emphasizing the importance of proactive risk prevention measures [9]. - The public consultation period for the proposed rules will continue until November 21, with market participants keenly observing potential adjustments to the tiered thresholds [9].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is seeking feedback on a proposal to permanently limit large positions in near-month contracts, aiming to mitigate the risk of short squeezes in a low inventory environment and adapt to changes in the global metal market landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Risk Mitigation - The LME's adjustment of lending rules is driven by significant market risks due to declining inventories over the past two years, highlighted by events such as the nickel squeeze in 2022 and the copper inventory transfer in 2023 [2]. - The proposed Front Month Lending Rules aim to prevent short squeeze risks by permanently limiting large positions in near-month contracts, addressing the issues arising from low inventory levels [2][3]. - LME copper inventory dropped over 60% from 270,900 tons in early February to approximately 95,900 tons by the end of June, leading to significant price volatility in LME copper futures [2]. Group 2: New Rules and Their Implications - The temporary rules introduced in June required traders holding long positions in delivery month contracts to limit their total holdings to the available inventory, with excess positions needing to be closed or converted to zero premium lending [3]. - The new rules focus on "position control" and "liquidity supply," with specific thresholds for lending premiums based on the percentage of total inventory held [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the implementation of these new rules will stabilize price volatility in the short term and reshape trading logic in the long term, enhancing market transparency and reducing the potential for manipulative practices [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategic Considerations - The LME's recent initiatives indicate a strategic focus on better serving the Chinese market, including establishing warehouses in Hong Kong and aligning offshore RMB collateral rates with other currencies [7]. - The LME's proposed changes are seen as a shift towards proactive regulation, moving from reactive measures to preventive strategies in global metal market oversight [8]. - The feedback period for the proposed rules will last until November 21, with market participants keenly observing potential adjustments to the tiered thresholds [8].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and nickel prices are expected to adjust at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and price fluctuations, there are differences in trading between bulls and bears, maintaining a range-bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][4]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel was 121,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread was -260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 1,5215 dollars/ton, a decrease of 270 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai nickel was 74,700 lots, a decrease of 3,140 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel was -28,802 lots, an increase of 545 lots. LME nickel inventory was 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, an increase of 3,604 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 6,198 tons, a decrease of 696 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel was 25,272 tons, an increase of 44 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 122,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract was 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 630 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -193.95 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.14 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 6.3467 million tons, an increase of 1.3409 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 15.0093 million tons, an increase of 0.9156 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore was 61.33 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.43 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output was 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 583,400 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons [2]. Industry News - On October 10th, Eastern Time, the US announced that in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items, it would impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on all key software. The US will levy port fees on relevant Chinese ships on October 14th. The list of candidates for the Fed Chairman has been narrowed to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder has "impressed" Bessent. The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to deploy AI large models in the government affairs field in a coordinated and intensive manner [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation in China shows characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and expectations of a new round of policy easing are rising. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, long - short trading is cautious and faces resistance at previous highs. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,425 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton. The main contract's open interest is 66,538 lots, down 4,072 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,541 lots, down 1,273 lots. LME nickel inventory is 224,484 tons, down 600 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,974 tons, down 600 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 26,167 tons, up 1,208 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 185.68 US dollars/ton, down 14.48 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 5.0058 million tons, up 659,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 13.8616 million tons, up 779,300 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, down 13,400 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [3] 观点总结 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and raw materials are in a tight situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase on dips, the spot premium remains stable, domestic inventory increases, and overseas LME inventory accumulates [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - The profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, with the spot premium remaining stable [3]. - Domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory overseas has accumulated. Technically, the position has increased while the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading, and the price maintains a wide - range shock within the range [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range operations, and pay attention to the support at the 12 - level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,620 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 81,691 lots, up 79 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,857 lots, down 2,264 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 tons, up 2,058 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,986 tons, up 547 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 8,550 tons, down 42 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,111 tons, down 193 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 830 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 182.88 US dollars/ton, up 5.59 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,308.23 million tons, up 48.41 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,018.74 million metal tons, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 2.2 million tons, down 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 57.74 million tons, down 0.94 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The report by National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie pointed out that efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, deepen reforms and expand opening - up, prevent and resolve risks in key areas, promote regional coordinated development and urban - rural integration, promote green and low - carbon development through dual - control of carbon emissions, and improve people's livelihood [3]. - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an emphasized putting the strengthening of the domestic cycle in a more prominent position and implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies [3]. - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. The year - on - year increase of the core CPI in August has expanded for the fourth consecutive month [3]. - US inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with the PPI down 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests temporarily observing or conducting range - bound operations with a reference range of 12.0 - 12.5. It anticipates that nickel prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the future. The macro - situation shows that China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The Indonesia government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the Philippines' nickel ore supply rebounds. On the supply side, overall refined nickel production increased slightly, and on the demand side, stainless - steel mills increased production, and new - energy vehicle production and sales climbed, but ternary battery demand was limited. Recently, nickel price increases led to reduced procurement demand, with domestic inventory rising and overseas LME inventory also growing. Technically, there are differences between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the battle around M60 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract was 122,130 yuan/ton, a 950 - yuan increase. The 09 - 10 contract spread was - 150 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 15,115 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 77,193 lots, a decrease of 1,762 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,349 lots, a decrease of 2,345 lots. LME nickel inventory was 211,296 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons (weekly), an increase of 444 tons. The LME nickel canceled warrants totaled 14,832 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. The Shanghai nickel warrant quantity was 20,723 tons, an increase of 102 tons [3]. 2.现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, a 900 - yuan increase. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 122,750 yuan/ton, a 700 - yuan increase. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The NI main contract basis was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 199.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,033.34 million tons (weekly), an increase of 38.98 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore was 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production was 2.26 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.13 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.07 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 59.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.51 million tons [3]. 6. Industry News - In July, China's CPI increased 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decrease in June, and the core CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June. The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has caused a "flash crash" in crude oil prices. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on the 15th. Zelensky firmly rejected territorial concessions [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3]