本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【油价受多因素影响或宽幅震荡】基本面信息显示，当前存在地缘政治溢价，炼厂高裂解支撑高开工。 欧佩克8月基本兑现增产承诺，后期还将延续增产态势，同时成品油需求有向下预期。 市场观点认为， 主要定价区域的低库存问题和频发的地缘事件给予行情支撑。但中期供需转弱预期较为一致，加上欧佩 克再度推进增产，令油价承压，行情或宽幅震荡为主。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Last week, crude oil prices were generally strong, with a slight correction on Thursday but still posting good weekly gains, mainly influenced by the escalation of the Red Sea situation and the possibility of Russia's production increase falling short of expectations. Considering the current market situation, changes in the supply side will continue to be the main factor affecting oil prices. Although OPEC+ may end production increases in October, the 2.2 million barrels per day increase this year has basically been achieved, which will lead to a continuous supply - side surplus and put pressure on oil prices. The uncertainty of Russia's export level also adds to the pressure on the commodity attribute. In terms of financial attributes, market attention to US tariff policies has decreased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains high, which may gradually ease the downward pressure on the macro - economy. Politically, there are new variables in the Red Sea situation and uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Overall, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range volatile trend before the supply - side uncertainties are resolved. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes or cools down, there is still room for a correction in oil prices [68]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Operation Ideas Last week, oil prices showed a generally strong and volatile trend, mainly affected by the Red Sea situation and Russia's export disruptions. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a wide - range volatile trend this week. The recommended price range is [510 - 535] yuan/barrel. There may be some room for correction if geopolitical factors cool down and there are no additional supply - side variables. It is recommended to focus on short - spread trading, consider shorting at high prices cautiously, or go long on the crack spread of downstream products [13]. 2. Market Review Last week, oil prices showed a generally strong and volatile trend. At the beginning of the week, due to the escalation of the Red Sea situation, market sentiment shifted rapidly, leading to a continuous increase in oil prices. In the second half of the week, the market's expectation of long - term consumption decreased, and inventory data accumulated excessively, causing a significant correction in oil prices on Thursday. However, over the weekend, concerns about possible disruptions to Russia's summer exports resurfaced, leading to another increase. Finally, the weekly lines of the three major crude oil futures all recorded two consecutive weeks of gains [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Impact Decreasing**: Trump extended the tariff negotiation deadline and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and unilaterally set tariffs ranging from 20% - 50% for over 20 countries. This further postponed the US tariff negotiation deadline, reducing market attention to this factor and the impact on macro - economic fluctuations [24]. - **Divergence in Rate - cut Expectations**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that some officials believed a rate cut in July was reasonable due to the labor market, while others thought tariffs would cause long - term inflation problems. Trump criticized Powell for inaction on rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September [27]. - **Geopolitical Tensions Rising Again**: At the beginning of last week, two merchant ships were attacked by the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea within 48 hours, raising concerns about an expansion of the attack targets. In addition, the US's stance on providing weapons to Ukraine has changed, adding uncertainties to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [30]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **Attention to OPEC Monthly Report Data**: OPEC+ production data shows that the total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May [33]. - **Possible Suspension of OPEC+ Production Restoration**: OPEC+ is discussing suspending further production increases from October after achieving about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply restoration in September. This may lead to a long - term supply surplus and put pressure on oil prices [34]. - **Uncertainty in Russia's Exports**: IEA said Russia's exports may face obstacles, as its June data shows that the export volumes of crude oil and refined oil are at abnormally low levels in the past five years, which may affect the market [38]. - **Iraq's Compensatory Production Cuts**: No specific analysis of the impact is provided in the text. - **Stable US Production**: The US crude oil production has remained stable. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Cooling of Consumption Expectations**: The market's expectation of long - term consumption has decreased. - **Manufacturing in Contraction**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China show that the manufacturing industry is in a contraction state. - **Slight Slowdown in Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slowed down to some extent. 3.4 Inventory - related Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory Build - up Pressuring Oil Prices**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 4 both increased significantly more than expected, mainly due to a sharp decrease in crude oil processing volume and a surge in imports from Latin America. However, summer consumption may boost oil consumption and reduce the long - term impact of this inventory build - up [58]. - **Refined Oil Inventory Drawdown Supporting Crack Spreads**: US gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending July 4, mainly due to increased consumption during the Independence Day holiday and increased exports with reduced refinery processing. This may lead to a further decrease in refined oil inventories and support crack spreads [62]. 4. Viewpoint Summary Overall, before the supply - side uncertainties are resolved, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes or cools down, there is still room for a correction in oil prices [68].