Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report suggests taking a bearish approach to oil prices [7] Core Viewpoints - This year, the peak - season consumption in the US is weak, and the market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. Oil prices have no driving force and are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting. If OPEC+ suspends production increases, oil prices can rebound slightly in the short term, but the rebound will be limited. If production continues to increase, it will intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and oil prices will face long - and medium - term downward pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $65.62, closing at $63.77, with a decline of 2.77%. Brent opened at $69.1 and closed at $67.39, down 2.53%. SC (in yuan/barrel) opened at 487 and closed at 481, a 2.2% drop. Market news indicates that OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production from October at the meeting on the 7th, which led to a sharp overnight decline in oil prices. US crude and refined product inventories decreased as of the week ending the 22nd, supporting oil prices to some extent. However, the US travel peak season is ending, refinery operating rates have slightly declined, and there may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the future. US gasoline consumption this summer has not improved significantly despite lower prices compared to last year [6] - **Operational Suggestions**: Overall, with weak US peak - season consumption and the market's digestion of the US interest - rate cut expectation, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The report recommends a bearish approach, closely watching the OPEC+ meeting [7] 2. Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that an additional increase in oil production by 8 OPEC+ countries is not currently on the agenda, and a decision will be made during the meeting - Sources said that OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at the Sunday meeting - The US hopes that Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil - Citi slightly lowered its average Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to $62 per barrel (previously $65 per barrel) [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate and build a bottom; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - OPEC's actual production increase in May - July may be only 600,000 barrels per day, and part of the production is for domestic direct - burn power generation. So, OPEC's crude oil export growth will not increase significantly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 56 cents to $62.85 per barrel, a decline of 0.88%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 77 cents to $64.86 per barrel, a decline of 1.17%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.07% at 463 yuan per barrel [1] - **Emirates Fuel Inventory**: As of the week ending June 2, the refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased by 13% to a five - month low. Medium - distillate inventory dropped 35% to a record low of 652,000 barrels; heavy - distillate inventory fell 25% to 7.238 million barrels. Light - distillate inventory increased 5.9% to 7.726 million barrels [1] - **US EIA Inventory**: For the week ending May 30, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels, EIA gasoline inventory increased by 5.219 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 576,000 barrels. US crude oil exports decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 3.907 million barrels per day, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 401.8 million barrels [1] - **Russian Oil and Gas Revenue**: In May, Russia's oil and gas revenue decreased by 35% year - on - year to 512.7 billion rubles ($6.55 billion), and also decreased by 53% compared with April [1] - **Saudi's Production Increase Plan**: Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC + will continue to accelerate oil production increases in the next few months, aiming to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September [1] - **Canada's Oil Production**: On June 4, Canada's Natural Resources Company restarted the Jackfish 1 oil sands project. About 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production capacity (7% of the national output) was shut down earlier due to wildfires [1] Investment Logic - OPEC's actual production increase from May to July may be only 600,000 barrels per day, and the increase in crude oil exports will not be significant [2] Risks - **Downside Risks**: The conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal and macro black - swan events [3] - **Upside Risks**: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core View - After the power outage on April 28, Spain has 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity and Portugal has 200,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in a shutdown state. This leads to a significantly low refinery utilization rate in Europe, which will drag down Europe's crude oil import demand and tighten European refined oil supply, supporting the refined oil crack spread. The power outage reflects the vulnerability of the European power system, and relying solely on new energy power generation will bring instability to the power system, affecting European refinery operations and downstream refined oil consumption [2]. - Oil prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - term and be short - configured in the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.02 to $58.07 per barrel, a decline of 1.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery in London fell $1.03 to $61.12 per barrel, a decline of 1.66%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.52% at 459 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending May 5, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE increased 0.1% month - on - month to 20.742 million barrels. Medium distillate inventory decreased 20% to 1.73 million barrels, a seven - month low. Heavy residue fuel oil inventory decreased 2.6% to 10.462 million barrels, a six - week low. Light distillate inventory rose to 8.55 million barrels from a one - month low the previous week [1]. - Qatar set the shipping price of June marine crude oil at a premium of $0.80 per barrel over Oman/Dubai crude oil prices and the shipping price of land - transported crude oil at a premium of $0.70 per barrel over Oman/Dubai crude oil prices [1]. - The EU is considering sanctions against Litasco Middle East DMCC, a trading subsidiary of Russian oil giant Lukoil PJSC in Dubai. This is part of a comprehensive new measure against Moscow's shadow tanker fleet [1]. - For the week ending May 2 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory was - 2.032 million barrels (expected - 0.833 million barrels, previous value - 2.696 million barrels); Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory was - 0.74 million barrels (previous value 0.682 million barrels); refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 0.937 million barrels). Domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.098 million barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.58 million barrels to 399.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.15%. Commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.056 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.558 million barrels per day from the previous week [1]. Investment Logic The power outage on April 28 led to a significant amount of refining capacity in Spain and Portugal being shut down, resulting in a low refinery utilization rate in Europe. This has an impact on European crude oil import demand and refined oil supply, and also reflects the instability of the European power system [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate and bottom out. - Medium - term: Short - configure oil prices [3]. Risk - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black swan events [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].